Conq's tennis plays - 2021

[Conqueror]

YTD: 23-26-1 +1.74

4/8

ATP, Marbella

Munar ML (-135)

It's all in the line.

[Maizey]

It was actually at 4-1. A little bit of luck, and what can I say - you know I just get....

She was up 3-1 and 40-15 on Rogers serve when she pulled it. Rogers had a gimme volley to extend the game and dumped it into the net. I thought that was going to be the difference since it meant Anisimova only needed to win two games to close out the match rather three games, which was a big difference. It was a very poor effort from Rogers prior to the injury, but she got it together after seeing the opportunity with a wounded opponent. I played Rogers on the opener at -120, but like Conqueror said, it was the wrong side barring injury. I knew nothing about any specific injuries for Animisova, so I was lucky. I will say that Animisova is one that seems to always be injured in some way, so backing her comes with that inherent risk. I’m afraid she’ll never realize her true potential because of that.

[Conqueror]

ytd: 23-26-1 +1.74

4/8

atp, marbella

munar ml (-135) w

it's all in the line.

1-0 +1.0
ytd: 24-26-1 +2.74

[Conqueror]

YTD: 24-26-1 +2.74

4/8

WTA, Charleston

Stephens ML (-130)
Barty -1.5 sets (-136)

No freebie for Rogers this time.

[Conqueror]

YTD: 24-26-1 +2.74

4/8

WTA, Charleston

3 plays
Stephens ML (-130)
Barty -1.5 sets (-136) No freebie for Rogers this time.

Value play:
McNally ML (+197)

I'm not sold on Badosa's victory over Bencic. It's more a reflection of how poorly Bencic played than how well Badosa played. McNally is definitely not a world beater but after perusing several aspects of this matcp-up, I came to the conclusion that this is a 50/50 match. The home dog angle also helps here.

[Maizey]

Barty -1.5 sets (-136)

Makes sense on the surface, however, I worry about the possibility of Rogers stepping it up after being gifted the last match.

Stephens ML (-130)

Stephens is definitely starting to come around. I like her progress, but her win over Keys might have inflated the price a bit in this one. Keys has played so little tennis lately and when she has played, she’s been awful, so I don’t put much stock in that convincing win for Stephens.


If I were forced to play, I’d be with you on both, but they’re both no plays for me. The lines have moved in your favor on both, which is a good sign. Hopefully you continue your winning ways.

My only play today is Badosa. I got her at -155 on the opener. Not sure I’d play it at the current price. I played against McNally in her first two matches, so I’m hoping she doesn’t beat me a third time.

[Maizey]

How funny! Just posted while you were posting. I agree with your assertion of Badosa. For me it’s a fade McNally play, which as I said, has not worked for me so far. Not sure if I agree on the home advantage with no fans.

[Conqueror]

Makes sense on the surface, however, I worry about the possibility of Rogers stepping it up after being gifted the last match.



Stephens is definitely starting to come around. I like her progress, but her win over Keys might have inflated the price a bit in this one. Keys has played so little tennis lately and when she has played, she’s been awful, so I don’t put much stock in that convincing win for Stephens.


If I were forced to play, I’d be with you on both, but they’re both no plays for me. The lines have moved in your favor on both, which is a good sign. Hopefully you continue your winning ways.

My only play today is Badosa. I got her at -155 on the opener. Not sure I’d play it at the current price. I played against McNally in her first two matches, so I’m hoping she doesn’t beat me a third time.

The one set Rogers can win here is the first. Barty hasn't lost the first set here even in her three 3-setters in the tournament. An analysis of Rogers' games vs the top 10 would reveal Rogers rarely wins the second set after losing the first. She however did that against Barty in Melbourne but that wasn't much of a competitive game. It was more or less an exhibition match. So awarding the first set to Barty gives me the confidence to play her in straights.

Yes, Stephens' line is definitely inflated. She is also one player I rarely play as a favorite. I only played her here because she has Tomljanovic's number (4-0). Let's hope she maintains her perfect record against her opponent especially coming off a win (even though not such a convincing win).

Yes, there are no fans but there's more to home advantage than just fans. Badosa is from Spain which has a time difference to Miami. Such differences may not seem to matter but they can have a considerable effect on one's biological clock. This match may eventually get played at her Spanish bed time (lol).

All the best Maizey and thanks for visiting!

[Conqueror]

Maizey,

Congrats on Badosa!

[Maizey]

Thanks buddy, same to you on your Stephens win.

The best part of the Badosa play was beating the closing line by 90 cents. I play mostly openers, so I’m looking for soft numbers, trying to get out in front of the moves. That one turned out to be pretty soft. The market isn’t as efficient as it is in major sports, but it’s efficient enough to want to be on the right side of the moves.

I’ll chime in at a later time to comment on your analysis. I love hearing about different angles.

Good luck on your Barty play.

[Conqueror]

Thanks buddy, same to you on your Stephens win.

The best part of the Badosa play was beating the closing line by 90 cents. I play mostly openers, so I’m looking for soft numbers, trying to get out in front of the moves. That one turned out to be pretty soft. The market isn’t as efficient as it is in major sports, but it’s efficient enough to want to be on the right side of the moves.

I’ll chime in at a later time to comment on your analysis. I love hearing about different angles.

Good luck on your Barty play.

Oh yea, you were right. Rogers won a set. A nice setback for me. One more opportunity to learn.

[Conqueror]

ytd: 24-26-1 +2.74

4/8

wta, charleston

3 plays
stephens ml (-130) w
barty -1.5 sets (-136) l
no freebie for rogers this time.

Value play:
Mcnally ml (+197) l

i'm not sold on badosa's victory over bencic. It's more a reflection of how poorly bencic played than how well badosa played. Mcnally is definitely not a world beater but after perusing several aspects of this matcp-up, i came to the conclusion that this is a 50/50 match. The home dog angle also helps here.

1-2 -1.36
ytd: 25-28-1 +1.38

[Maizey]

The one set Rogers can win here is the first. Barty hasn't lost the first set here even in her three 3-setters in the tournament. An analysis of Rogers' games vs the top 10 would reveal Rogers rarely wins the second set after losing the first. She however did that against Barty in Melbourne but that wasn't much of a competitive game. It was more or less an exhibition match. So awarding the first set to Barty gives me the confidence to play her in straights.

I think you had the correct play here. Barty just forgot how to serve, hard to cap that.

Yes, Stephens' line is definitely inflated. She is also one player I rarely play as a favorite. I only played her here because she has Tomljanovic's number (4-0). Let's hope she maintains her perfect record against her opponent especially coming off a win (even though not such a convincing win).

I generally ignore head to head, for a couple of reasons. First, the sample sizes are small. In this case, 4 matches doesn't tell a whole lot, especially when you consider over the course of their careers, Stephens has been the better player, so she was likely a favorite in all of those matches, two of which went to three sets. The expectation would have probably been for her to be 3-1, but 4-0 isn't really meaningfully different from as statistical standpoint. Second, when there are significant head to head trends, they're usually baked into the line, since it's an easy stat to look up. I think there are occasional places where it can be useful, just not very often, IMO.

Yes, there are no fans but there's more to home advantage than just fans. Badosa is from Spain which has a time difference to Miami. Such differences may not seem to matter but they can have a considerable effect on one's biological clock. This match may eventually get played at her Spanish bed time (lol).

I think there is some value in paying attention to this, particularly in short travel situations and over the course of a tournament where a player has a lot of long matches. That might have been a factor for Barty. She had some long matches and the time difference is enormous in her case. For Badosa, I wouldn't have expected much impact. It's only a 6 hour difference and it was going in the easier direction.

[Conqueror]

I think you had the correct play here. Barty just forgot how to serve, hard to cap that.


I generally ignore head to head, for a couple of reasons. First, the sample sizes are small. In this case, 4 matches doesn't tell a whole lot, especially when you consider over the course of their careers, Stephens has been the better player, so she was likely a favorite in all of those matches, two of which went to three sets. The expectation would have probably been for her to be 3-1, but 4-0 isn't really meaningfully different from as statistical standpoint. Second, when there are significant head to head trends, they're usually baked into the line, since it's an easy stat to look up. I think there are occasional places where it can be useful, just not very often, IMO.



I think there is some value in paying attention to this, particularly in short travel situations and over the course of a tournament where a player has a lot of long matches. That might have been a factor for Barty. She had some long matches and the time difference is enormous in her case. For Badosa, I wouldn't have expected much impact. It's only a 6 hour difference and it was going in the easier direction.

I think so too.

[Conqueror]

YTD: 25-28-1 +1.38

4/11

ATP doubles, Marbella
Brkic/Cacic ML (-111)

[Conqueror]

ytd: 25-28-1 +1.38

4/11

atp doubles, marbella
brkic/cacic ml (-111) l

0-1 -1.11
ytd: 25-29-1 +0.27

[Conqueror]

YTD: 25-29-1 +0.27

4/12

Challenger, Belgrade
Cressy ML (+186)

[Conqueror]

ytd: 25-29-1 +0.27

4/12

challenger, belgrade
cressy ml (+186) l

0-1 -1.00
ytd: 25-30-1 -0,73

[Conqueror]

YTD: 25-30-1 -0.73

4/14

ATP, Monte Carlo

Sinner ML (+225)
Won't make this bet in a grandslam game. Djokovic doesn't care much about this type of tournaments. Sinner already has a number of matches under his belt and is talented enough to pose a serious threat to the Djoker. GL to us.

Pouille ML (+128)
Hey! It's time for Pouille to get serious. The French Open is around the corner.

[Conqueror]

YTD: 25-30-1 -0.73

4/14

3 plays

ATP, Monte Carlo

Sinner ML (+225)
Won't make this bet in a grandslam game. Djokovic doesn't care much about this type of tournaments. Sinner already has a number of matches under his belt and is talented enough to pose a serious threat to the Djoker. GL to us.

Pouille ML (+128)
Hey! It's time for Pouille to get serious. The French Open is around the corner.

Value play:Cecchinato ML (+152)
Cecchinato and Goffin are 1-1 on clay. On current form, Goffin has nothing on Cecchinato. This is pretty much a 50/50 game. I'll side with the value.

[degennn]

Sinner...I like...but I'm scared

[Conqueror]

Sinner...I like...but I'm scared

Djokovic hasn't played dick since winning the Australian Open.

[degennn]

Djokovic hasn't played dick since winning the Australian Open.

But his name is still djokovic...

[degennn]

Kinda like millman

[Conqueror]

Kinda like millman

I don't know why he is such a massive underdog.

[Conqueror]

ytd: 25-30-1 -0.73

4/14

3 plays

atp, monte carlo

sinner ml (+225) l
won't make this bet in a grandslam game. Djokovic doesn't care much about this type of tournaments. Sinner already has a number of matches under his belt and is talented enough to pose a serious threat to the djoker. Gl to us.

pouille ml (+128) w
hey! It's time for pouille to get serious. The french open is around the corner.

Value play:cecchinato ml (+152) l
cecchinato and goffin are 1-1 on clay. On current form, goffin has nothing on cecchinato. This is pretty much a 50/50 game. I'll side with the value.

1-2 -0.72
ytd: 26-32-1 -1.45

[degennn]

I don't know why he is such a massive underdog.

Ah...I guess now we know haha. Weird lines today. Fognini looks short. Ruud looks short. Books trying to get some agut money. Makes sense but I dont see rublev losing to him again although rublev didnt look unbeatable last night. Absolutely no rhyme or reason but I might put 50 cents on dan Evan's just to watch it burn.

[Conqueror]

Ah...I guess now we know haha. Weird lines today. Fognini looks short. Ruud looks short. Books trying to get some agut money. Makes sense but I dont see rublev losing to him again although rublev didnt look unbeatable last night. Absolutely no rhyme or reason but I might put 50 cents on dan Evan's just to watch it burn.

You may be unto something with Evans.

[Conqueror]

ytd: 26-32-1 -1.45

ATP, Monte Carlo
Krajinovic ML (-123)

[Conqueror]

ytd: 26-32-1 -1.45

2 plays

ATP, Monte Carlo
Krajinovic ML (-123)

WTA, doubles
Piter/Wang ML (+143)

[Conqueror]

ytd: 26-32-1 -1.45

2 plays

ATP, Monte Carlo
Krajinovic ML (-123) L

WTA, doubles
Piter/Wang ML (+143) L

0-2 -2.23
ytd: 26-34-1 -3.68

[degennn]

Evanssss lol

[Conqueror]

Evanssss lol

You pulled that one off. I faded Djokovic on the wrong day.

[Conqueror]

YTD: 26-34-1 -3.68

4/16

Dear Fruhvirtova,
You've tried a lot. You certainly have a great future ahead of you. Not many would have thought you'd come this far in this tournament.
I wish you well as you exit the tournament.

Sharma -1.5 sets (+156)

[Conqueror]

ytd: 26-34-1 -3.68

4/16

dear fruhvirtova,
you've tried a lot. You certainly have a great future ahead of you. Not many would have thought you'd come this far in this tournament.
I wish you well as you exit the tournament.

Sharma -1.5 sets (+156) w

1-0 +1.56
ytd: 27-34-1 -2.12