Stacocakes Rogers Cup thread

**Stacocakes** · 08-09-09, 06:24 PM

Well I mentioned Rafas prices could move a bit from his outright +420 yesterday and it certainly has to now +600. Great odds for Nadal. Have to question the line movement though in one day.Obviously there must be some serious concerns about whether or not Rafa can return and whether or not he is healthy.As of right now I am going to stay away from this outright amount.I am going to wait and see what Pinny posts for the line.If I do make an outright bet on Nadal it is going to be very small so I dont have to worry about whether or not he is healthy every match.

A couple matches that I have noticed already are :

Dancevic +149 over Simon

Simon is clearly the better player here though he is struggling to regain the form that catapulted him into the top 10. Dancevic will have the home crowd behind him so that is clearly playing a factor in this price. Another reason for the low price is that Dancevic has been playing matches while Simon hasnt done anything since late July and that was on a clay court. Funny thing is that I was leaning towards Simon and then as I was analyzing the match further it became apparent to me that all of the signs were pointing to Dancevic for this match. This is by no means a back up the truck lets win some money type of match but this could prove to be a nice dog payout.

Kiefer/ Wawrinka - Kiefer has some injury concerns coming into this tournament. Couple that with the fact that Wawrinka is an inconsistant player and this is a no bet for me.

Monfils -144 over Safin

Monfils is the play here. Monfils is 3-0 lifetime vs Safin and the only reason for the low line is that Monfils has been injured which seems to always be the case. As a big favorite I dont believe its worth it to play on MOnfils when he has injury concerns because he is so difficult to watch. He always looks like he is dying every second of the match and you wonder if he is really injured or if he is just playing along or if that is just what he looks like when he plays.A definate rollercoaster ride of emotions when betting heavily on Monfils.At odds of -144 though over Safin I will definately make a play on Monfils,nothing huge though. I was one of the last people off of the Safin train but I am sick and tired of watching him play out his career as though he doesnt give a **** about anything. So many dissapointing losses in the recent years and so many hits to my bank account.Im done betting him. Safin is 3-7 in his last 10 matches and is not worth backing at this point any more unless you can get him as a massive dog. Monfils is the play

Tursunov/Andreev - Remember one of the golden rules of tennis, never bet on a match with two russian players

Cilic -197 over Youzhny

Cilic is the play here. Youzhny is coming into this match on a 2-8 run in his last 10 matches. Definately a match where one player is going up in there career and the other is coming crashing down. Youzhny is 2-0 in the head to head matches but both of those matches came in 2008 when Youzhny was playing some good tennis.Not really the case at this moment. Cilic is the play. Since I have bet this the line has now moved to Cilic -209 at Pinnacle which is good to see now that I already have it locked in.

That looks like my only plays for the first day of the Rogers cup. Going to check out the draws more in depth later tonight and maybe post some outright bets.Will see.Holding off on betting Nadal though outright until later tonight if at all

Good luck with opening day everyone.Lets make some cashell

**Stacocakes** · 08-09-09, 11:22 PM

No outright plays for me this tournament. Have read various reports stating that Nadal isnt in good form so I will just pass on him.

Best of luck tomorrow guys

**Stacocakes** · 08-11-09, 02:00 AM

Another great opening day of a tournament on sbr forums here for Stacocakes. 1-2 today but one of the losses was Cilic at almost -200. What a piece of shit that guy is.That match with Youzhny was horrible.Both played like shit. Anyways,cant dwell on the past. Lets move onto tuesday and get back that money. It is supposed to rain all day tomorrow so it might not be the best day to bet if you dont want your money tied up.

Raonic +1502 over Gonzalez

Ok call me crazy here. Going to put a bit on this play. Raonic played well in the qualifiers and is said to have a booming serve so combine that with the fact that Gonzo hasnt had much rest and this isnt his ideal surface and something can happen. In a best of 3 match all we would need is a couple tiebreaks and its all good.Add to the fact that the home crowd is behind him and it will be fun times. Yes he had a 5 match losing streak before winning both qualifying matches but that is why he is +1502!

Berdych -151 over Kohlschreiber

Berdych is 5-0 head to head vs kohl in his career, though the matches were all from 2007 and before. Willing to take a leap with him though because he has the game to fit this surface nicely. Just needs to keep his head in the match and I think he can beat kohl

Karlovic -107 over Haas

Ivo is 4-1 career vs Haas though once again, all of these matches were in 2007 or earlier. Both players playing relatively good recently. Ill take Ivo since this is a best of 3 and we can hopefully rely on his serve.Haas serve is breakable though Karlovic is horrible at breaking serve. Coin flip odds ill take the big serve

Best of luck tomorrow guys. Dont know if any of these matches will be played but who knows.Lets make some money

**dennisback** · 08-11-09, 06:31 AM

play a parlay with +1500 has like 250% better chances to hit than raonic over gonzalez. agree on karlovic play. gl

**fuglyboy86hi** · 08-11-09, 08:39 PM

great call, raonic's serve working perfectly

**Stacocakes** · 08-11-09, 09:00 PM

Match still going but thanks. Got some gonzalez -200 in-game so I am sitting comfortably now. To bad Karlovic and berdych both lost or else this would have been a good day

**Stacocakes** · 08-12-09, 01:07 AM

Up and down day 2 of the Rogers Cup. Berdych was up a break in both the first and second set, winning only one of those sets, against Kohl.Chalk up another disapointment for Berdych.Guy will never get it.Surprised he actually fought to get to a third set.
Karlovic looked good winning the first set but ultimately shit the bet the rest of the way. Usually happens when I bet Karlovic
Roanic helped salvage my day. +1500 odds that I hedged out as stated above with Gonzalez inplay at -200 and I got a nice little profit to make up for the two earlier losses.Still a minimal loss for the day though.Have to turn this shit around and make day three the first positive day in the tournament.Heres what I like :

Tsongas odds of -540 over Schuettler are way to big. Tsonga is in poor form and Schuettler is....well Schuettler. Tsonga should win the match but he is known to have those classic bed shit matches where he just loses to an opponent that he should beat easily. Not going to take my chances with odds this big.Will just stay away.

Monfils +123 over Juan Carlos Ferrero

JCF looked really good today beating Hewitt rather easily. Monfils on the other hand looked really shitty barely beating Safin in the third set on Monday. Though in current forms everything points to JCF I am intrigued by the plus money that I can get with Monfils. Any time you can get a player that is a top 10 player, when not injured, at plus odds I think it is worth the risk. Going to bet a bit on Monfils but not going to go crazy.

Isner -131 over Youzhny

Isner has to be the play here. The Youzhny/Cilic match on monday was a horrible match.Looked like neither player wanted to win. If Isner can keep up his good form and his service then Youzhny will be very beatable.Small odds on this play make it even that much better.

2 plays for Wednesday, Isner -131 and Monfils +123 Good luck everyone

**dennisback** · 08-12-09, 04:20 AM

gl bro got isner too

**head_strong** · 08-12-09, 04:22 AM

On JCF but good luck with your plays.....

**Stacocakes** · 08-12-09, 10:50 AM

Thanks guys best of luck

Tsonga has started out horribly today and is probably going to lose the first set.Good thing I didnt back him
JCF is is very good form so you have a good shot head strong.I just liked monfils odds
Isner looking good so far

**Stacocakes** · 08-12-09, 08:47 PM

Another crap day. Both Isner and Monfils lost. I can kinda understand that Monfils lost but the match was there for Isner to take on many occassions and he didnt so I guess this is what we get
Two dissapointing night matches today, both ending in retirement.Hopefully something better tomorrow

Nadal looked very poor in his match against Ferrer. Hopefully that was just rust and not an indication of how he will play this tourney. He barely got any first serves in, lots hit halfway up the net, and Ferrer was able to get 8 or so breakpoints in the 3 or 4 service games that Nadal had in the match before the Ferrer retirement. If there was anyone across the net that could actually hit a ball over it without being injured then Nadal would have been in trouble today.Definately Nadal is a play against, just hope that we can get some good odds.The odds will probably be adjusted down for the poor nadal.

As of right now, Federer,Murray, Djokovic and Del Potro all have big odds. Not really sure if the dogs are worth backing in any of the matches.
Tsonga is playing Simon and Tsonga looked very poor in his match today. Barely got by Schuettler. Tsonga looks like he doesnt care most of the time and it shows in his play
Nadal is going to be playing Petzschner but no odds are up as of yet. If you can get a big price on Petz it might be worth it since we dont know nadals fitness.
Will wait a bit and see if some more odds come out for tomorrows matches. Still to early to determine what the plays should be. Will be back later

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-12-09, 08:55 PM

I agree on those big dogs listed, not much to like against the big guys.

**Stacocakes** · 08-12-09, 08:59 PM

Federer/Wawrinka

Fed opened around -1000 and it has been bet down rather fast to -570 for Fed. I am sure Roger has fond memories of Wawrinka beating his ass in Monte Carlo.That was at a point where Fed was playing very poor so I dont really put much stock in that. Hard to tell where Feds head is since he had the twins. He will probably win this match but is -570 worth it?Nah

Simon/Tsonga

Both times the two players played the matches went three sets. Each player has won once. Tsonga in very poor form right now and looks very unmotivated.No odds have officially come out for this match yet but on Betfair its trading at about Tsonga -140 which is a no play. All Simon would have to do in this match is to keep the balls in play and Tsonga could error himself out of winning the match. Passing on this match as well.Could go either way

**ji03** · 08-13-09, 12:15 AM

What about Nadal/ Petzschner? I havent seen the odds but do you give Petzschner any chance of winning that match?

**Stacocakes** · 08-13-09, 12:57 AM

Odds are up now and its Nadal -528 and Petz +459.
Nadal was brutal today. His serve was horrible.Couldnt get his first serve in.Ferrer had many break points but could only convert one of them. Nadal also was not trying very hard to reach cross court shots.Looked like he didnt want to over exert himself or anything.
Nadal when in this form is probably still better then Petz.Would probably win the match based on his will and his mental toughness. If however the knee is acting up, I have seen Nadal retire in a match before...yes I had the other guy and got ****ed out of the bet.
I dont think Nadal will win this tournament and I agree that betting against him might be a good play but I dont think Petzschner is the guy to do it. Del Potro in the next round though will be fairly interesting

**dennisback** · 08-13-09, 03:51 AM

yea but del potro will be at least -150 or -200 fav vs. nadal. i think petzschner has a great service (wins about 85% of 1st serve points). could be close, id play the handicap

**ji03** · 08-13-09, 08:59 AM

Ok that was what I was thinking. I figured Nadal may be able to pretty much will himself to a win.
Thanks

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-13-09, 09:52 AM

I know I said very little case for taking any big dog against the huge faves today, but I couldn't resist putting a little on Hanescu. Del Potro got a little lazy in his 2nd set against Hernych, if Hanescu shows up ready to rock - he has a slight chance maybe, maybe, not. But hey for $20, you can win $200 some odd. Why not? Starts in about 10 minutes I believe.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-13-09, 10:59 AM

Hanescu up a set and an early break in the 2nd set.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-13-09, 11:36 AM

I think Hanescu has effectively thrown this one away now. He gave the break back to make it 3-3 and then got broke in his next service game as well. Del Potro won 6-3 in 2nd. Wouldn't be surprised if DP rolled in the 3rd. Hanecu's only hope is if DP continues to have trouble getting his 1st serve in, but it looks like talent has taken over - over fatigue.

**Stacocakes** · 08-13-09, 11:58 AM

Great call with Hanescu EaglesPhan. Hopefully you had some in-play betting and were able to hedge out of that Hanescu bet for a profit because it looks like Del Potro got the break in the third now and will probably win.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-13-09, 12:02 PM

Unfortunately the book I have most of my balance at does not have live tennis betting because I would have hedged out as soon as DP broke him in the 2nd set. Oh well, I think that's the hardest any of these big dogs is gonna push today. Couldn't talk myself into taking Verdasco against Roddick at good odds. Verdasco just doesn't have that shine he did early in the year.

**Stacocakes** · 08-13-09, 03:19 PM

Verdasco/Roddick was a great match today. Roddick was serving out the match in the third set and actually was up 40-15 on his serve with two match points and preceeded to blow the game and the match ended in a tiebreak which Roddick ended up winning anyways.Lots and lots of money backed on Roddick at 1.01 and 1.02 odds so alot of people were shitting there pants when Roddick blew those two match points.One of the best matches of the tournament so far though

Nadals odds have been pouded.Were in the -500 range and then before the match started the odds had jumped to about -700. Dont think he will have much trouble with Petz today but its not worth the odds

**Stacocakes** · 08-13-09, 03:28 PM

Petz emberassing himself off of the court here. This match shouldnt take long

**ji03** · 08-13-09, 04:54 PM

What do you think about Nadal v. Del Potro? I was watching the Nadal match today and the commentators said Del Potro looked very tired. I also liked how well Nadal played, but dont know how much stock to put in that.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-13-09, 05:09 PM

Del Potro would have lost to a more accomplished hard court player today in straight sets. Hanescu had him on the ropes, but his serve didn't hold up. Hard to trust Nadal based on one match, but from all acounts - Del Potro has looked fatigued in the 2nd sets and on in both of his matches here. Hard to go against him though with as well as he has played on hard courts in the last year. Price will be interesting to see how much stock the books place on Nadal's performance today.

**dennisback** · 08-13-09, 06:14 PM

pinnacle had hanescu +6 @ -140, that was the biggest gift ever lol. closed at +5.5 @ -129. glad i had the +6 so early, was never in doubt hed cover. you all should have a look at the HCs !! today bammer was +6 although she led in h2h and played very well lately. Hanescu the same, although he is way better than Hernych books gave him 0.5 games more...

**Stacocakes** · 08-13-09, 09:11 PM

Del Potro always has that look that he is dying when he is playing.He is very similar to Tsonga and Monfils in that way. Is hard to say where Nadal is at really because Petz was pretty bad today so it wasnt that good of a test for Rafa. What is worrying me here is that Del Potro has been playing alot of tennis lately having just won the tournament right before this. Last year you will remember that Del Potro was on fire around this time of the year and then he eventually faded towards the end of the year because of to much tennis. Nadal has had alot of trouble getting to cross court shots so if Del Potro is on and is using his powerful groundstrokes he could power Rafa off of the court. Nadal is -156 right now to win. Im going to think about this more before pulling the trigger or anythign

Djokovic/Roddick

Roddick barely got by Verdasco and you have to think that the three set match drained andy both mentally and physically. Roddick has won 3 of 5 vs Djokovic including the last two times they have played. Clearly Roddick is in better form coming into this tournament so I am leaning towards Roddick but I just cant pull the trigger yet

Davydenko/Murray

These two have played eight times with each player winning 4 times. Last time they met was recently on clay and Murray won the match but the surface is completely different. Last hardcourt match between the two was last year in Shanghai and Davydenko won. Both of these players are playing great tennis coming into this match so its very difficult to pick a clear favorite in this. Thing you always have to remember though is that Davydenko seems to play well against the middle tier players but as soon as he has matches against the top 4 or 5 players he is unable to raise his game to beat them. With that being said I believe Murray will win this match but the -308 price tag on Murray might be a bit to steep.

Will think about these matches and wait for the Federer/Tsonga line to come out and have some plays later on in the night. If you guys have any opinions on any of the matches let me know

**Stacocakes** · 08-14-09, 12:04 PM

First quarter final of the day is getting underway. Murray/Davydenko. Going to take Murray for this match because of Davydenkos poor record against the top players in the game.Should be a good match. Best of luck guys

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-14-09, 12:12 PM

Roddick is the only one I am thinking about possibly today. As you pointed out, the Nadal/DP match is too iffy not knowing truly how Nadal is going to perform. I always like to see at least two matches from a returning player before feeling comfortable with gauging their form. Murray should win, but I did not like the odds & Federer/Tsonga is a no play with the odds as well.

**Stacocakes** · 08-14-09, 12:36 PM

Odds are definately to high for Federer.I dont think Tsonga has a chance in that match though so its not worth it.
Roddick/Djokovic is a toss up.Leaning towards Djokovic because he is the dog and Roddick is coming off of a hard fought match with Verdasco
Murray looking good early with the break but facing two break points here.Not good. Still think he will win
Nadal/DelPotro is probably a no play I agree

**MilfDriller** · 08-14-09, 01:11 PM

Pts were for the thread... not the post... tho I pretty much agree w/ most of what you said.. except the Djoker lean... altho, o/c, the dog pricing does make it a decent option. Just think Arod is on fire right now.. and the Nando that played yesterday was definitely the Nando that pushed Rafa in the semis at the Aussie.

Looks like these ugly quarters betting matchups will give way to a spectacular semifinal option... ie, Murray vs. Federer. Books should make Fed the fave.... but I'd even back Murray up to -150. Murray might be the father of one of Roger's babies... and Rafa is definitely the other father of the other baby.

**Stacocakes** · 08-14-09, 01:46 PM

Murray match was an easy win for once. Its a rarity for me to actually start out the day ahead here. Federer next against Tsonga and the odds on Fed make it a no play for me. Agreed though that the semifinal matches will be very good.I agree with you Milfdriller in that I like Murray to beat Federer if they play in the next round.Hopefully we can get some decent odds on Murray.

**Stacocakes** · 08-14-09, 02:49 PM

Wow Fed loses the first set in a tiebreak...this could be very interesting