I'm huge on Jarry as well. Think he was jet lagged and didn't want to be there in Cordoba and i totally agree why the price is so high.
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Comment -
I was hopping between placing a big bet on either Jarry or Ramanathan. Ended going big on Ramanathan. Hopefully they both win. Good luckComment -
Rubin is a solid one, Thompson outside off australia is meh. No idea how he is a favourite plus I think the faster surface benefits Rubin. Wrong player favoured for sureComment -
Too bad he failed to close it out after winning the first set. But to be honest, Thompson did put a lot of pressure on his serve and could be considered as a rightful winner in this one. Couple of close losses here yesterday. Popyrin failing to push the match in third with two set point on his serve did hurt, but those things happen. Moving on.
Cherbourgh CH
Vaclav Safranek +3.5 / -104
Safrenek in a bad form dating back to second part of the last season. But nobody is going to force me to lay 3.5 games with Guinard. He does have a win over Darcis and Kuzmanov in january, but I wouldn't get too crazy about it. Conditions are fast int his tournament, Safranek has a very decent serve that can be a weapon here. With a reckless guy like him, scoreline like 6-7, 2-6 is always a threat, but I believe we are getting too much value to skip this one. Quality wise they are on a similar level and Guinard should not be favored by this much.
Cherbourgh CH
Raul Brancaccio +4 evens
As I wrote yesterday, this guy is really solid and is flying little bit under the radar atm. Maden is the one with extensive record of success in challengers, but I doubt he'll sweep Brancaccio in this one.
ATP New York
Guillermo Garcia Lopez +2 / -104
I was hoping to get a good price for Klahn here, but it didn't happen. Actually, for a guy that plays on the edge all the damn time, I think he is favored too much. Especially against a tricky and smart opponent that can force and error or two. Klahn is mostly going full speed all the time. GGL has a good hands to counter that pace, redirect those shots, mix couple of low bouncing slices in there and come to the net when needed.
ATP Buenos Aires
Leonardo Mayer -139
Looking at the line moves, it's obviously that market is expecting Lajovic to suddendly find his form when switching to the clay court. It's not going to happen. Surface was not the problem. In his best days, he could easily produce good tennis on hard court as well and he was way below par on hard courts to start this season. There is simmply no that usualy rackethead spead on his forehand, which was working so well in the middle of previous year. When he was building his game around that shot. Leonardo Mayer is playing agressive and on a high level at the moment. Good combination for faster conditions in captial of Argentina.
Cherbourgh CH
Maxime Janvier +121
Blind bet of the day. Travaglia is a better player overall, while Janvier is playing bad at the moment. Would bet Travaglia, but the opener and the line move are just too odd in this case.
Bangkok CH
Yuichi Sugita -105
Kuzmanov with his dinky-dunky play shouldn't be lined up this close on fast asian hard courts. Not against proven player like Sugita.Comment -
ATP New York
Radu Albot +119
Albot playing really well at the moment. Defending some points from last year, when he lost to Kei in quarters, after three sets. I don't know why he is so underrated in this spot. Wheather it's the travel from France, where he played in semis on saturday, or Ivo's january performance/perception that his serve cannot be broken indoors.
I think 4 days is more the enough for travel and rest, getting yourself aclimated for next tournament. Especially for these experienced guys that do it all the time. Ivo is playing above expectations this season, considering his age, but I think he is overpriced a bit. And his serve is definitely a weapon indoors, but Albot is a high level returner and is a bad matchup for Ivo here. Actually, he eliminated Isner last year in second round here.
ATP Buenos Aires
Marco Cecchinato -141
Garin is a talented player, but Cecchinato is a much more acomplished clay courter that should be favored more here. Auger-Alliasime served the match on a silver platter to Garin in first round, while I wouldn't put as much stock in Cecchinato's loss in Cordoba, where he got after playing Davis cup in India on grass courts past weekend.Comment -
ATP Rotterdam
Fernando Verdasco +3.5 / -105
Pretty crazy line. Medvedev is priced at absolute premium at the moment and is arguably overvalued by the market. Nando is playing some very good tennis to start this season and could easily keep this one in the striking distance.
Cherbourgh CH
Gianluigi Quinzi +116
Otte is a pretty agressive player in terms of coming forward to the net whenever he's ahead in the point. I think Quinzi has some weapons to conter that, especially from his backhand side that he can flatten out real nice and hit that short cross , making that volley very difficult. He might be considered a clay courter too much and not getting enough respect on faster surfaces, where he improved his play a lot lately.
ATP Buenos Aires
Marco Cecchinato -154
As I said yesterday, Marco is too good for these regular clay courters. Garin actually put up a good fight yesterday, but Cecchinato fought him off with his versatille clay court game. Carballes Baena has too many holes in his game too cause an upset here. Just defending will not work vs Cechinato, cause he's not stupid trying to forcedully punch through opponent. He is a quality point constructor and that will be key here.
ATP New York
Bryden Schnur -108
Lorenzi might be the biggest upset of this week. Nobody had him to get into the QF. but Sandgren and Harrison doesn't play enough direct to force feed him some real fast court tennis and put him out of his comfort zone. Schunr can definitely do it. I just hope he doesn't choke in the opportunity for biggest result of his career.Comment -
Yeah, I like Schnur. Also Nando but playing +1.5 Sets instead of a handicap.
Good luck man!Comment -
Thanks! Good luck to you as well
Was thinking of nando +1.5 sets as well. I don't think there's much difference between these two bets Opted for game handicap, because it's not that easy to break serves in there, so a close 2 set win is always a possiblity and I'd have it covered with this high of a line.Comment -
Yeah you're thinking of the same line of me as well, that Medvedev is overvalued, which I agree with to an extent. He's had a pretty damn good year so far. But when you see his losses, you can see why he isn't making it deep in the big tournaments yet. He just goes off the wall for two or three service games, and loses his focus. If he can sort those things out he's potentially at the top of the NextGen guys. And he may even get away with having a very mediorce second serve (which I think contributes to his issues)Comment -
Exactly. Even though I think he's overvalued at the moment, I still think he is really really good. I'm just frustrated to see guys coming to play him and not being mentally prepared for a battle. After 3 or 4 games, most of them are like: "fakk this shiit, I'm not in a mood to play 30 shot rallies every single point". And then scorelines like yesterday's happen, even though Nando has more then enough quality to challenge him for the win.
Comparing him to some of the older guys, Murray comes to mind. And with generation with no new Djokovic, Federer, Nadal in sight, that should be good enough.Comment -
ATP Buenos Aires
Pella/Munar over 22.5 / -108
Linemakers are sometimes too hesitant to make total higher on clay with all the breaks of serves that happen. But in such cases they should. Cause we will probably see a grueling clay court match between two guys that doesn't give many free points away. Will probably exchange momentums, going back and forth and need a third set to decide this one.
ATP New York
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez +2 / -106
GGL wrongfully viewed as a clay courter here. He can flatten out his shot nicely for these type of playing conditions. Big win over Millman in previous round and Opelka rarely blows opponents away on the scoreboard. Usually we're talking tie-breaks, so If Garcia pushes this one into third, I think he covers the line. I believe he can win outright as well, but the games line is just too good to pass up.Comment -
ATP Rio de Janeiro Q
Donati/Dutra Silva over 21 -104
Haven't seen enough from Silva recently. Usually have respect for his game on clay, but considering his current form and what I've seen from some of his recent matches, this type of lines are not justified. Obviously it's expected from him to sweep Donati off the court here, but I don't think that will be the case.
ATP Rio de Janeiro Q
Kimmer Coppejans +3 /-108
Played on extremly high level in Davis cup, beating both Dutra Silva and Monteiro in front of their home crowd. Think he keeps it rolling and gives Sonego good run for it's money in this one.
AAF
Salt Lake Stallions +7 evens
Overreaction week in the AAF. People jumping on Brimingham's bandwagon big time. I mean sure, they had couple of bright spots in that first game. QB Perez played solid, Former 49er Patton managed to get open consistently (but also showed inconsistent hands). Running game was struggling a bit early on and I wouldn't put much into their defensive performance. Memphis offense was pure garbage. Hackenberg didn't know what was he doing back there.
Stallions got beat in Arizona, after Woodrum left the game at the end of first half. He's questionable for this one after sneaking in a limited practice late i the week. A lot of their problems came from inability to create push up front and run the ball (pretty much every team struggled to do that), so I believe they are going to make adjustment in their offensive gameplan for this one. Overall, there is enough former NFL talent on this roster to take advantage of this line, which is so lopsided because of the overblown win by Birmingham Iron in first week.Comment -
old stats
W/L: 13-9-1
staked: 26.75u
profit: +3.59u
yield: 13.42%
Carlos Tabarner +129
Raul Brancaccio -2.5 / -102
Popyrin/Schnur over 24 evens
Ramkumar Ramanathan +111
Nicolas Jarry -1.5 sets / +164
Noah Rubin +118
Vaclav Safranek +3.5 / -104
Raul Brancaccio +4 evens
Guillermo Garcia Lopez +2 / -104
Leonardo Mayer -139
Maxime Janvier +121
Yuichi Sugita -105
Radu Albot +119
Marco Cecchinato -141
Fernando Verdasco +3.5 / -105
Gianluigi Quinzi +116
Marco Cecchinato -154
Bryden Schnur -108
Pella/Munar over 22.5 / -108
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez +2 / -106
Donati/Dutra Silva over 21 -104
Kimmer Coppejans +3 /-108
Salt Lake Stallions +7 evens
-------------------------------------------------
W/L: 25-18-3
staked: 51.63u
profit: +7.03u
yield: 13.61%Comment -
Comment -
ATP Delray Beach
Lacko/Watanuki over 22 / -107
Even though we're talking about a lazy bastard, Lacko still has enough talent and ball striking ability to challenge Watanuki in this spot. Quality difference is very narrow here. Conditions should be fast enough to allow players to hold their serve at high rate. Expecting a close one.Comment -
ATP Marseille
Steve Darcis -106
Public pounding Bachinger for some reason. I guess he made some money for the bettor during the qualies couple of weeks in a row and they don't wanna jump of the money train. But I think Darcis should be favored more in this spot. He's been playing solid tennis this season. He'll make a ugly match too watch. Opponent has to be prepared and very patient, something that Bachinger is not really that good at. He'll come to the net a lot and get passed by DarcisComment -
AAF
San Antonio Commanders +272
Quality difference is actually not as wide here as the odds might suggest. Iron played a cupcake schedule so far, so their undefeated record is not as worth as some might give them credit for. They beat Memphis, Atlanta and Salt Lake which might be the 3 worst teams in the league. And they needed some time to break resistence of the later two. They are a decent team with couple of solid players like Perez and Patton, but imho not good enough to be laying this type of juice.
Commanders opened the season with two strong performances, then layed an egg in San Diego, which was kinda expected after a fierce battle vs Orlando (4-0) and a narrow loss. They are better at home in the dome, but even on the road, I could see them causing an upset in Birmingham. With Woodside, Farrow and McKay, they have enough firepower to do so.Comment -
ATP Madrid Q
Hugo Dellien +132
these two met in Estoril last week, where Andreozzi easily won 6-3 6-3. That scoreline for sure affected the odds for this one an offered us some additional value with Dellien. Altitude in Madrid makes playing conditions faster and gives edge to quality ball strikers like Dellien over guys like Andreozzi who makes its living by keeping the ball in play and waiting for opponents mistakes.Comment -
Shymkent CH
Gijs Brouwer -115
Should be bigger favorite imho. Simon has a lot of power, but no clear idea how to properly use it. Don't see him as a real threat on clay. Especially not in this match up where a lefty will test his questionable backhand.Comment -
WTA Madrid
Kristina Mladenovic +4.5 +115
When if not now. Playing much better and confident since adding Sasha Bajin to her team. Kvitova is great, but Kiki always had the tools to bang it out with the top players. She just needed proper guidance.Comment -
Shymkent CH
Ojede Lara/Manafov over 21 -111
Bit too low imho. I know it's clay and that things can be pretty lopsided at challenger level, but I believe we'll see a competitive match here. Ojede Lara is considered a big favorite here because of the clay court expertise. But, courts in Shykment seem to be on the faster side and don't give as much edge to no-power dirtballers. Manafov is a decent looking lefty with a final appearance on these courts (ITF level), not even a full month ago when he fell to Saffiulin in the finals.Comment -
Aix en Provence CH
Dan Added +117
kid had some nice success on ITF tour this season. Gaston is just not very impressive in any espect.Comment -
ATP Madrid
Alex De Minaur +217
Overreaction to his poor results lately. He has a decent match up here. I like Hurkacz, but his game is not built for constructing points on clay vs a good defender.Comment -
ATP Madrid
PH Herbert +3 -107
Improved his clay game a lot. Altitude conditions in Madrid alow him to play behind his serve a lot, which he likes to do.Comment -
Aix en Provence CH
Peter Polansky -127
People just like to hate on Peter for whatever reason. He's a class above Nys and an underated clay court player.Comment -
ATP Madrid MD
Krajicek/Sitak -126
Carballes Baena and Munar are two guys that doesn't have the tools to be very sucsefull at doubles. Krajicek and Sitak are specialists and line is so close only beacuse spaniards are more known names, because they are playing singles on high level.
ATP Madrid
John Millman +222
Fabio is Fabio. I don't trust him with this type of juice. Especially against pesky opponent like Millman, who grinds for everything.
Aix en Provence CH
Rogerio Dutra Silva +102
very weird line movement. people should be all over Travaglia at this price, but the line diped on the other side.Comment
