Dr Ivo vs Federer - Have your say

**j0hnnyv** · 06-29-09, 08:30 PM

I cant wait to watch this. I have backed karlo I believe 3 straight matches now and you are right, I have never seen him play like this. guys serve is unbelievable and is an awesome weapon to have. federer does not respect this guys game for obvious reasons but he is improved in other areas. i do believe this will be a 7-6 6-7 7-6 6-7 type match

i can not see federer actually losing this but you never know. this will be a no bet for me.

**The General** · 06-29-09, 08:32 PM

Federer minus $1.55 to win Wimby it is a good take IMO with a possible hedge.

**pavyracer** · 06-29-09, 08:39 PM

Karlovic wins in 5 sets.

**The General** · 06-29-09, 08:40 PM

I feel better now.

**j0hnnyv** · 06-29-09, 08:41 PM

good luck pavy at +650ish its the most legit test to federer so far.

**The General** · 06-29-09, 08:42 PM

This slam win puts Federer in a class of his own Passing Pete. Federer looks comfortable and is definitely the best player in the qtrs, but a bad match can happen. He looks at home here. Big confidence and no arrogance.

**pavyracer** · 06-29-09, 08:44 PM

Originally posted by j0hnnyv

good luck pavy at +650ish its the most legit test to federer so far.

Karlovic has more chances to beat Federer than USA had to beat Brazil at about the same odds.

**Karayilan9** · 06-29-09, 09:08 PM

TheGeneral
Karlovic has more chances to beat Federer than USA had to beat Brazil at about the same odds.

I agree with you, I'm not doubting that Fed is one of the greats of tennis but he may be a little complacent against this guy because of their previous record.

This new improved Karlovic is a beast, his serve is ridiculous, his opponents can barely can a racket on it, forget a return. He's like a cheat character you unlock on a video game, the kind that has a ridiculous special move and is 100X stronger and bigger than everybody else that there is no point playing with him or against him because he's so much better it gets boring.

The man has one of the scariest serves I've seen in tennis, the physics of it are unbelievable, he's so tall that he sees much more above the net than any opponent and hits the ball with such power and placement that you have to react in a split second because the ball bounces so high that you can't wait. Then you have to guess which side he's going to serve because if your on the wrong side of the box your not getting to the ball however hard you try.

Verdasco has the 8th best return of 1st serve points and is 6th in best return of 2nd serve points and is 5th in return games played in the mens game but he didn't get close to breaking this guy, the most he ever got was 30 points in one or two games.

I think Karlovic on the + games handicap looks good in this game.

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-30-09, 12:21 AM

Federer, but the prices yield a definite no play.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-30-09, 10:54 AM

If you want to bet on Karlovic, a correctscore might be worth looking at. He's 0-11 in matches that go 5 sets, cos he gets exhausted, so forget the 3-2 win. Similarly, hard to see him winning in straights, cos Fed is outrageously good in tiebreaks, especially in slams.

Thus: 3-1, which can be had for +2000 or more.

Might be worth checking the LOndon weather before betting too, it's currently forecasted at 26/27c. In similarly hot conditions at Roland Garros, Karlovic went 2-0 up vs Hewitt before wilting - by the end he was dead on his feet.

**jayc88** · 06-30-09, 11:02 AM

karolovic on the handicap is only +4.5 -145,
besides i dont share the love of karlovic everyone has , sure enough his serve was really impressive so far , but federer will knock him out in 3 or 4 sets.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-30-09, 11:10 AM

Big worry for Fed imo is his return against big servers this year. He only won 9% of points against the Soderling first serve, and struggled bigtime at Roland Garros vs Haas and del Potro before they faded. Against Karlovic, who's been serving double his usual ace count average in the last match, it's going to be near impossible to break unless he has an off day. You then have to cope with him in a tiebreak, and even Tsonga couldn't manage that - normally a tiebreak monster.

Currently thinking over38.5 looks good, it's hard to imagine Karlovic not taking at least one set in a tiebreak serving as he is (and that can also cash via 3x tiebreak).

As for the overall result, my initial instinct was: Fed, easy. The more I look at it, the more I see huge danger signs for him here. This is the best server in the history of tennis he's facing, who's serving out of his skin even by his standards, and is essentially unbreakable at the moment - I struggle to see anyone breaking him outside Murray (best returner going) or del Potro (enormous reach, good return reactions). Hot weather forecast will only make it harder to break him.

**Karayilan9** · 06-30-09, 12:02 PM

HeeeHAWWWW
As for the overall result, my initial instinct was: Fed, easy. The more I look at it, the more I see huge danger signs for him here. This is the best server in the history of tennis he's facing, who's serving out of his skin even by his standards, and is essentially unbreakable at the moment - I struggle to see anyone breaking him outside Murray (best returner going) or del Potro (enormous reach, good return reactions). Hot weather forecast will only make it harder to break him.

That's how I was thinking aswell, I also bet Karlovic + games handicap agianst Tsonga and Verdasco but thought he would definitely loose those games. I've never seen him serve like this so consistently, for such long periods.

Stats wise Verdasco is one of the best returners of serve but he looked completely hopeless and its demoralizing when you can't play your game. Verdasco looked mentally exhausted by the time it got to tie-break.

Fed is capable of the unbelievable and if Karlovic has an off day serve wise its game over for him. But if Karlovic plays to his game plan he just may pull off a surprise.

**bigjonson** · 06-30-09, 08:11 PM

I am backing Karl.

I think he can pull it off.

Dropping 1 unit.

**Karayilan9** · 06-30-09, 08:22 PM

Dr Ivo +3.5 @ 2.5/+150, I'm going for it, going to sprinkle a little on in ML, I think the most likely scenario is Fed 3-0 hopefully a triple tie-break game but I don't think Karlovic is a +950 underdog, this could be a tight game and Karlovic does have a chance here however, small it may be.

**tbill11** · 06-30-09, 11:06 PM

I think the thing to remember here is that contrary to popular belief, Federer is not unbeatable. If he wins this match, then he will be the Wimbledon champ. Karlovic is the only player right now who has a chance at beating Federer in this tournament because Federer will have prepared for the big names that are still in (Murray and Roddick).

I'm throwing a unit on Ivo because I believe that no champ is infallible and that he's the only guy in this field right now that I could ever justify betting on to beat Roger. I won't be surprised if I'm wrong, but I think that it's the proper bet to make given this scenario

**stats13** · 06-30-09, 11:14 PM

.49 units on Ivo +600 to win 3.43

why not? reward is DEFINITELY worth the risk for a guy with such a cannon of a serve. You won't feel it if you lose, but if you win..... thaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaank u

**hoopster42** · 07-01-09, 12:44 AM

fed is too much chalk for me to take him but i wont be wasting my money on karlovic either, fed has a very good return of serve and i think he'll return well and neutralize that karlovic serve which means karlovic has to actually play out pts which means he's done

**EaglesPhan36** · 07-01-09, 12:58 AM

Originally posted by tbill11

I think the thing to remember here is that contrary to popular belief, Federer is not unbeatable. If he wins this match, then he will be the Wimbledon champ. Karlovic is the only player right now who has a chance at beating Federer in this tournament because Federer will have prepared for the big names that are still in (Murray and Roddick).

I'm throwing a unit on Ivo because I believe that no champ is infallible and that he's the only guy in this field right now that I could ever justify betting on to beat Roger. I won't be surprised if I'm wrong, but I think that it's the proper bet to make given this scenario

Disagree about him being prepared against the others. Murray is in his head just as much as Nadal is. Murray has won 6 of 8 from him. Only caviat is no grass meetings, but for me, Murray has the best shot at giving Federer a match of the remaining cast.

**tevari** · 07-01-09, 06:59 AM

have fed winning in straight sets at even money for a small bet

**fishtot** · 07-01-09, 08:19 AM

Ivo is horrible, If he dont get the Ace, hes in trouble. Roger doesnt make enough unforced errors for Ivo to compete. Putting money on him is like throwing money away

**Karayilan9** · 07-01-09, 10:08 AM

Now that didn't go to plan, Dr Ivo needs to go back to the lab he couldn't even get to tie-breaks

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 07-01-09, 12:09 PM

Relatively easy - Karlovic served rubbish until the 3rd set, well below his level this grass season.

**hoopster42** · 07-01-09, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

Relatively easy - Karlovic served rubbish until the 3rd set, well below his level this grass season.

i guess karlovic finally reverted back to the guy who lost his last 4 wimbledon appearances all in the 1st round.......this was predictable

**Sawyer** · 07-01-09, 02:30 PM

Federer is very close to win Wimbledon and become No#1 again..

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 07-01-09, 07:16 PM

Originally posted by hoopster42

i guess karlovic finally reverted back to the guy who lost his last 4 wimbledon appearances all in the 1st round.......this was predictable

Well, easy to say so afterwards :-) Didn't happen vs Tsonga or Verdasco though......

**j0hnnyv** · 07-01-09, 07:25 PM

Have to give alot of credit to Federer too here. He was ON his game and it's really starting to look like this is his tournament and there is nothing anyone can do about it. Haas will give him a good match tomorow but I do not see him winning. He had fed down 2 sets to none a few weeks ago at the french on clay and roger stormed back to win in 5. Heres a great stat...Federer for his career is 58-1 on GRASS with his only loss coming to Nadal in the Wimbledon final last year.

**hoopster42** · 07-01-09, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

Well, easy to say so afterwards :-) Didn't happen vs Tsonga or Verdasco though......

this is what i posted earlier in the thread PRIOR to today's match

"fed is too much chalk for me to take him but i wont be wasting my money on karlovic either, fed has a very good return of serve and i think he'll return well and neutralize that karlovic serve which means karlovic has to actually play out pts which means he's done"

i believe it played out exactly how i predicted, i mean exactly

**hoopster42** · 07-01-09, 07:38 PM

Originally posted by j0hnnyv

Have to give alot of credit to Federer too here. He was ON his game and it's really starting to look like this is his tournament and there is nothing anyone can do about it. Haas will give him a good match tomorow but I do not see him winning. He had fed down 2 sets to none a few weeks ago at the french on clay and roger stormed back to win in 5. Heres a great stat...Federer for his career is 58-1 on GRASS with his only loss coming to Nadal in the Wimbledon final last year.

that 58-1 stat does not account for 99-02 where in 4 wimbledons he lost in the 1st round 3 times and in the quarterfinals once

he must be 58-1 in his last 59 matches on grass, not overall in his career

**j0hnnyv** · 07-01-09, 07:47 PM

Originally posted by hoopster42

that 58-1 stat does not account for 99-02 where in 4 wimbledons he lost in the 1st round 3 times and in the quarterfinals once

he must be 58-1 in his last 59 matches on grass, not overall in his career

Yes I stand corrected. TI was wrong...he is 81-12 on grass lifetime. still an unreal record