What were the books thinking with Sousa this weekend??

**DavidGoliath5003** · 05-06-18, 09:49 PM

Yeah i was doing the same... i made some solid coin off Jaziri the past 2 months..

**WaveRunner33** · 05-06-18, 10:03 PM

Easy to post this after he wins the final. Share it around next time

**JohnHanson** · 05-07-18, 09:02 AM

And vs. P. Sousa he nearly lost..

I played him vs. Tsitsipas, was very close, won in the tie break. Tiafoe played a very strong tournament and Sousa had a hard match vs. Tsitsipas and played after that the the Double semi final. Odds weren't gifts at all.

I am betting on tennis over 10 years and "gifts" are very seldom. But sometimes it happens, yes. But Sousa defiinitly wasn't. For example Berdych vs. injuried Del Potro last Australian Open was maybe something like a "gift".

But for sure in tennis is good value, but only if you can watch all matches live and you know all players well + much experience over years. If you can not watch the matches live the whole day the oddsmaker from the bookies have always a edge over you.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 05-07-18, 12:19 PM

He was seriously lucky not to lose to PSousa - was totally outplayed. PSousa served for the match twice and choked hard both times.

**Wesley** · 05-07-18, 02:39 PM

Yeah he was lucky against Pedro and he lost every 1st round match in Estoril the years before...

**jtoler** · 05-07-18, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by PharaohUB

What were the books thinking? Anyone else clean up with him this weekend? Very solid player, at home, in a tourny where not many have much motivation, +220 against Edmund, +140 against tsistipas, +140 against Tiafoe. I couldn't believe my eyes when I woke up this morning that he was an underdog to Tiafoe and I made one of my largest bets ever on Sousa this AM +140. I did not post because I didn't want to jinx myself!

You can really make money in this sport if you pick your spots. Moreso than any other sports IMO. Just need to understand their motivation... pick your spots. Some of the lines don't make any sense. It's like people look at the rankings and what surface they like and set a line and that's it. Can get some juicy stuff with live betting too.

Probably because the last 3 years in this home tourney he never got past the 1st round. Hindsight is 20/20.

**ProDane** · 05-08-18, 04:24 AM

I saw Tiafoe play against Muller and Carreno-Busta, and he absolutely destroyed both of them. He played like he was in a rush, and he made close to 0 mistakes at all.
Talking about motivation - My native commentator said that Tiafoe grew up playing on this exact same court/or in Estoril, but I am not sure whether it's correct.

**PharaohUB** · 05-08-18, 01:12 PM

Originally posted by jtoler

Probably because the last 3 years in this home tourney he never got past the 1st round. Hindsight is 20/20.

Yeah I guess. I've always liked Sousa and made money on him in spots over the years. I had to take him at thos odds against Edmund who is a headcase and has much more important upcoming tournies (like atp 1000 Madrid and RG). I thought that line was crazy considering the circumstances. Players of Edmunds caliber play the 250 tournaments to warm up from the bigger payouts and they don't give it everything they have. As I watched that match I thought Sousa looked in good form and the crowd seemed really into it, so I just rode the wave after that. I don't know who he opened up against in the past 3 years, and I didn't bet until 2nd round anyway once he got rolling so it's irrelevant and a completely different situation.

**PharaohUB** · 05-08-18, 01:18 PM

Originally posted by WaveRunner33

Easy to post this after he wins the final. Share it around next time

I like playing with my own money, not anybody elses. It feels okay when it wins, but I feel awful when it loses. I also make most of my plays last minute. I have tennis TV and work from home so I kind of just of check what's about to start when i wake up in the AM and if I have a good feel on the match i will bet it. I have been doing pretty well for a couple years now and have considered posting. I've watched more tennis in the last few years then probably anyone on earth. It's just on all day when I'm working from home. Almost a 2nd job for me to keep up with the players and their form. The potential of messing the mojo I've got going on, the effort involved to post the picks, and the potential of people losing money on my pics is what keeps me from posting.

**PharaohUB** · 05-08-18, 01:29 PM

Originally posted by JohnHanson

And vs. P. Sousa he nearly lost..

I played him vs. Tsitsipas, was very close, won in the tie break. Tiafoe played a very strong tournament and Sousa had a hard match vs. Tsitsipas and played after that the the Double semi final. Odds weren't gifts at all.

I am betting on tennis over 10 years and "gifts" are very seldom. But sometimes it happens, yes. But Sousa defiinitly wasn't. For example Berdych vs. injuried Del Potro last Australian Open was maybe something like a "gift".

But for sure in tennis is good value, but only if you can watch all matches live and you know all players well + much experience over years. If you can not watch the matches live the whole day the oddsmaker from the bookies have always a edge over you.

Yes and that's exactly what I do. I work from home and watch tennis all day and even watch replays of matches I miss. Yes those matches were close but a coin flip isn't really a coin flip when you have crowd behind you. And the odds were all + money anyway so if you felt it's a coinflip then they are bad lines and it is gift over time. May not win them all but if you win more than half they are gifts.