Saw many matches on both tournaments this week, so this might help some of you to make decisions. Dubai finals first. Whoever watched Kasatkina yesterday is probably surprised with these current odds. She was just relenthless, refusing to go down, saved match points like in Konta match previously and was victorious in the end. key to break Kasatkina's spirit is to bully her second serve. She has no confidence in that shot. But none of her opponents apart from Konta maybe weren't aggressive enough and determined to take advantage of that. The most important question here is if Svitolina is going to do that? I would lean towards no. She was very passive throughout most of this tournament, letting her counter-punching skills shine and opponents trying to hit through her. Vs Kasatkina that's not the smartest thing to do, I believe. Once you let her in the rally, you have to be prepared to work. And also to adapt to her top spin shots which are not that often in WTA nowdays. Shape on those shots might start to bother Svitolina who can get impatient at times and that would make this match super interesting.
i don't have a play on it yet, but must admit that I'm very tempted to make a small play on Kasatkina +270.
Budapest. Kuzmova plus money seems to be the popular play around the internet. I'm gonna go out on a limb and call it "wannabe sharp play". Just because you like the new exciting player on the tour, it doesn't mean it's a sharp play. Kuzmova got to the semifinals as a lucky loser. Had some nice wins, although some of the might be exagareted, like the last two for example. Lisicki is just a UE machine and Martic actually was slightly better in first set, but once she failed to stay in the set in 10th game, she just gave up.
How I think this one will play out is about the ability for sailing smooth throughout their service games. Kuzmova has the ability to serve big at times, but her 1st serve % will fluctuate at times and offer break opportunities to her opponents. Especially to a confident player like Van Uytvacnk who will get after that 2nd serve everytime. While Alisson in this tournament can hold her serve much firmly. So I belive that Kuzmova needs a really big baseline performance today just to keep it close and at this price it's just not worth counting on that.
At the moment, I think the market has this one right. I'd wait for some public money to come in on Kuzmova later and maybe then jump on Van Uytvanck, but if it doesn't happen, wait for in-play where a good opportunity might present itself.
Cibulkova-Barthel. Both were pretty convincing in this tournament. Barthel had a big win vs defending champion Timea Babos in r16. Clash of the styles with Barthel being the aggressor and Cibulkova using her movement and counter punching ability to force Barthel into extra shot and possibly an error. Considering the playing conditions and Barthel's form, I see value with her at these odds. If you don't agree, You can bet vs me on Cibulkova at best price in this thread - https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ova-200-a.html
market average at -245, I'm offering -200.
i don't have a play on it yet, but must admit that I'm very tempted to make a small play on Kasatkina +270.
Budapest. Kuzmova plus money seems to be the popular play around the internet. I'm gonna go out on a limb and call it "wannabe sharp play". Just because you like the new exciting player on the tour, it doesn't mean it's a sharp play. Kuzmova got to the semifinals as a lucky loser. Had some nice wins, although some of the might be exagareted, like the last two for example. Lisicki is just a UE machine and Martic actually was slightly better in first set, but once she failed to stay in the set in 10th game, she just gave up.
How I think this one will play out is about the ability for sailing smooth throughout their service games. Kuzmova has the ability to serve big at times, but her 1st serve % will fluctuate at times and offer break opportunities to her opponents. Especially to a confident player like Van Uytvacnk who will get after that 2nd serve everytime. While Alisson in this tournament can hold her serve much firmly. So I belive that Kuzmova needs a really big baseline performance today just to keep it close and at this price it's just not worth counting on that.
At the moment, I think the market has this one right. I'd wait for some public money to come in on Kuzmova later and maybe then jump on Van Uytvanck, but if it doesn't happen, wait for in-play where a good opportunity might present itself.
Cibulkova-Barthel. Both were pretty convincing in this tournament. Barthel had a big win vs defending champion Timea Babos in r16. Clash of the styles with Barthel being the aggressor and Cibulkova using her movement and counter punching ability to force Barthel into extra shot and possibly an error. Considering the playing conditions and Barthel's form, I see value with her at these odds. If you don't agree, You can bet vs me on Cibulkova at best price in this thread - https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ova-200-a.html
market average at -245, I'm offering -200.