Monfils Vs. Federer

[hels]

Just my thoughts: With Monfils being the only Frenchman left the crowd is going to show no love for Federer.

Federer's last performance was haphazard at best and he didn't start playing until he was 2 sets down and tied 4-4 in the 3rd. The crowd starting backing him hard at this point and he began playing as he can. After he won the 3rd Haas lost all of his belief and was then shit.

I honestly believe that with Nadal out of it Federer has lost motivation. His main thinking at the start of the tourney was, "I have to beat Rafa." Roger looked to have lost his motivation.... also his press adviser announced he wasn't going to partake in any press conferences until after the tournament. Every other player is trying much harder now that Rafa is out because they believe they have a chance, "the king of clay is gone." Federer doesn't fit into this category though, him winning the French won't mean anything compared to him beating Rafa to win the French.

Let's face it, Roger is already pencilled into the record books and now more than anything it's personal achievement that will mean more to him. I could promise you that if Roger was given these 2 choices:
1) You go straight to the 2009 French final; however, Nadal will not be your opponent.
2) You play in the regular draw of the 2009 French with Nadal being your first round oppenent.

That he would choose option 2. Sounds stupid as no one else in the world would even consider option 2 but I think him beating Rafa in a Grand Slam Final would mean more than anything. Yes him winning Madrid against Roger was big, but it's not a Slam, not even close.

Anyways, here's my thoughts for the lines

Monfils in 3 at 12:1 and Roger in 5 at 6.5:1 -- I don't believe Roger will win 3-0 or 3-1 but if it goes to 5 Roger will win.

Monfils 1st Set: 3.15:1
Tie break will be played: 1.8:1

[The General]

I thought the crowd showed a lot of support for Federer throughout the match with Haas. I thought it was impressive for Federer to keep his bearing throughout and win after being down 2 sets, close to beaten in the 3rd set. Surely Federer is as motivated as any other player with what he can accomplish with a win here at the 2009 French Open. Career Slam and a tie for most slams ever. His play in the early rounds has been a lot less dominate than we would expect. I think that should change now. He had his bad play. Time for the talent to rise.

I hope to be able and watch the match. Being off duty tomorrow night should help.

These matches from here on out are tough to predict. Everyone should give their Best.

I really hope Federer can win this tourney and I Hope that he can get back to form that we seen in the past. He is such a talent and I enjoy watching athletes like this, who are icons for their sport, do well.

We'll know the Monfil vs Federer outcome in about 12 hours.

Good luck on your plays and thanks for the insightful write-up.

[hels]

I read more often than post but I've always loved tennis and haven't started betting heavily on it until this year. Admittedly, I haven't done as hot as I would like too and do have a losing record so far throughout the French.

I just see Monfils winning hard and quick or Roger trudging along and pulling it off in the end.

I thought the crowd was more neutral in Haas/Fed until it became reality that Roger might actually lose (took 2.4/3 sets for this to happen too). If Fed does come out guns a blazing with pure confidence and motivation that he CAN have then yes it will probably be 6-4, 6-1, 6-2 for him. I just don't see him coming out like this though.... and playing against someone like Monfils who is pure heart and energy and gets excited and has the crowd fall in love with him, it's difficult for his opponent to keep any dominant control.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Looking back over the last few years, imo you can see a clear pattern: the infamous Fed wobble. They can happen at any stage from the 3rd to the qf, and they're getting worse over the years (used to be only single sets, but now 2 is happening, maybe next year someone will manage 3). However, once he's over this mid-slam screwup, he tends to go on to the final much more securely.

Look at the Aus Open: two down vs Berdy, comes back. Next round he beats Del Potro 63 60 60, then Roddick in straights. Of course he loses to Nadal in the final with a tame performance, but the demons vs Nadal are well known.

Or Andreev at the last US Open: goes the full 5 sets, then he beats Djokovic and Murray comfortably to win the title.