A tennis play that I'd liquidate my possessions for...

[yisman]

Edited for truth.

Just missed an easy shot. 40-30 Janko.

Edited for truth? You're as bad as judging a woman's appearance as CrazyL is at handicapping WTA matches.

[yisman]

Thank god no one would buy any of my crap, I'd be in deep dodo...

ha

Anyone think Jankovic looks like Shawn Marion?Almost identical face

I definitely see the resemblance in the shape of their faces.

Yeah do the math. +270 on the Nadal prop, -560 here & -500 some odd on Wozniacki.

You're missing a ton of threads where he guaranteed heavy chalk WTA picks. Needless to say, they lost. Should I bump all of them? He's hitting at a ridiculously low percentage, and on heavy chalk, no less.

[pico]

damn, lost

[EaglesPhan36]

You're missing a ton of threads where he guaranteed heavy chalk WTA picks. Needless to say, they lost. Should I bump all of them? He's hitting at a ridiculously low percentage, and on heavy chalk, no less.

I don't really have a problem with Lou wanting to lay the lumber. If that's his thing, that's his thing. The thing that is worn out is his claim on "value" for these big chalk plays. I can see picking and choosing some of those MAYBE in the 1st & 2nd rounds of majors with your absolutely Top Tier players with superbly favorable match-ups. Once you get into the latter part of these majors thought, you're usually not getting a lay-up, no matter what the price.

[smitch124]

My model said NEVER TAKE A PLAYER MORE THAN -200 IN WOMEN'S TENNIS. That should just be a rule of life for anyone who bets tennis. Value schmalue. I even say that for the most part in men's tennis. Parody is starting to become a bigger part of this sport than it has been in the last 5 years or so.

Do you ever consider playing some of the bigger dogs then solely based on this logic?

[yisman]

My problem is that he's a moderator and he's trying to bury posters.

If he's going to keep guaranteeing awful picks, he should make a sticky at the top of the forum informing everyone that he doesn't have a clue how to handicap tennis.

Then he can do whatever he wants.

It's just sickening to see people tail him.

If I was a new guy coming here and I saw a moderator guaranteeing a pick would win, I might put some stock in it. You would think that only people with a clue about gambling would become mods, right?

Plus, it's borderline spamming the way he creates a new thread for every pick. He was on two bad picks today: Jankovic and Radwanska. You would think he could just post one thread. But no. Not Lou.

The persistent spamming buries the worthwhile threads here.

[EaglesPhan36]

Do you ever consider playing some of the bigger dogs then solely based on this logic?

Occassionally when the match-up is right. I won't lay a big dog just to lay a big dog here late at the French, but I definitely wouldn't be playing lines around -400 either at the QF stage. Thing is a lot of people find it tough to skip the latter stages of a Grand Slam because they're the matches getting all the attention. But you can't bet things just because they're big matches, etc. You have to find a perceived edge in the match and if you look over a lot of these QF match-ups, there's not enough of a gap between the players in current form and their history on the surface, head-2-head, etc. to warrant going in on the big chalk.

Yisman, I also don't think hardly anyone here tails Lou on his tennis picks. If someone new here does or hell someone more experienced - that's your bad. I don't think blindly tailing someone without researching a bet is smart at all. And I don't think Lou is trying to bury people, I think he's just making bad picks. No guarantees, just BIG PICKS IN LOU-DUH LAND!

[yisman]

You didn't see fearless's thread? He was serious. He's just one guy. Most of the people that lost tailing CrazyLou aren't posting threads to announce it.

If you post picks every day, people will tail you because they figure you know better than they do.

Especially if you're a mod and you tell people it's a lock, to go all in, etc.

If someone new here does or hell someone more experienced - that's your bad.

Unless you specifically tell people not to follow your picks, posting picks is a responsibility. I feel it when I post picks in my tennis thread, for example. I'd be crushed if I handicapped like Lou, and it's not because I'd be financially destroyed. It's because I don't want to lose someone else's money. Ultimately, it's the person placing the bet who incurs the risk, but misleading people like Lou does is flat out wrong.

[flyingillini]

Maybe Crazyl is back on the yayo?

[EaglesPhan36]

Like I said. I think people who tail anyone regardless of their expertise, etc. without doing their own homework and having their own opinion are going to lose in the long run to begin with and I'm pretty sure Fearless was being a bit tongue & cheek in his praise for Lou in that thread. At least he was smart and paid a lower price for games and used the big favorite the only way you should - as part of a parlay.

[RogueJuror]

Maybe Crazyl is back on the yayo?

meth maybe

[tacomax]

Ballsy and amazing call Lou.

[Justin7]

I'm more curious in seeing how Lou's model works. Care to enlighten us?

[bettilimbroke999]

I'm more curious in seeing how Lou's model works. Care to enlighten us?

= Jankovic

[Justin7]

= Jankovic

Don't bullshit me. This is 8th grade math.

I'd love to model tennis, but I don't have the databases to do it.

[bettilimbroke999]

Don't bullshit me. This is 8th grade math.

I'd love to model tennis, but I don't have the databases to do it.

Crazy sold me that tennis model for 500

[twister]

Edited for truth? You're as bad as judging a woman's appearance as CrazyL is at handicapping WTA matches.

No, I'd just rather bang chicks that are actually hot.

[Justin7]

Crazy sold me that tennis model for 500

lol. Well if anyone has a good database, contact me. I'd need match results and play-by-play (how each point was won). And sorted by surface and date, of course.

[twister]

lol. Well if anyone has a good database, contact me. I'd need match results and play-by-play (how each point was won). And sorted by surface and date, of course.

Don't know about "play-by-play", but I think www.tennisinsight.com has all the major stats from individual matches/players, but it does cost to sign up.

You'd have to email to check, but I'm quite certain that they will have everything from 1st/2nd serve %, points won on 1st/2nd serve, points won at net, unforced errors, winners, etc.

[wtf]

has crazyl revealed how much he actually lost on this one?

if it is a small amount i begin to wonder his actual intentions of starting the thread

[tacomax]

I'm more curious in seeing how Lou's model works. Care to enlighten us?

Yes, me too Lou. You may want to dumb it down since the concepts are so incredibly hard for the unsophisticated bettor to compute but I'm sure you can do it in a language that people like me can understand.

[j0hnnyv]

I didnt think it was possible to lose this many -500 or better favorites. This HAS to be a friggin record of some sort.

if you picked without capping 10 -500 or higher chalks in a month span you would hit more than 70% I bet. This guy everyone he picks and says theres so much value LOSES!!

i need an explanation

[yisman]

No, I'd just rather bang chicks that are actually hot.

You're not banging Cirstea either way. We're talking about what's attractive, and saying Cirstea isn't is absurd, especially considering what the other top players look like (with a few notable exceptions like Sharapova).

[yisman]

I didnt think it was possible to lose this many -500 or better favorites. This HAS to be a friggin record of some sort.

if you picked without capping 10 -500 or higher chalks in a month span you would hit more than 70% I bet. This guy everyone he picks and says theres so much value LOSES!!

i need an explanation

It's a rare gift. Few people have it.

[tacomax]

I didnt think it was possible to lose this many -500 or better favorites. This HAS to be a friggin record of some sort.

if you picked without capping 10 -500 or higher chalks in a month span you would hit more than 70% I bet. This guy everyone he picks and says theres so much value LOSES!!

i need an explanation

It was a -1850 favourite.

[twister]

You're not banging Cirstea either way. We're talking about what's attractive, and saying Cirstea isn't is absurd, especially considering what the other top players look like (with a few notable exceptions like Sharapova).

Are we limiting the female pool down to tennis players only?

I don't care if a chick is famous/sports star/model or anything else. She either has a nice face, or she doesn't. If Cristea's face wasn't as chubby as it was, i.e she reduced her bf%, she might well be very attractive.

Until then, she isn't. Who knows though, maybe you have a preference for chubbier faces. Each to their own.

Edit: That's not to say that she isn't above average. But far from "hot".

[Netprofit]

instead of risking 5+ units to win one, why dun you go the easy one on monfils or robredo? oh i forgot CrazyLou plays only one women's matches? in that case, how about razzano at +125? even serena is a much better play.

In this business of sports handicapping, no one can predict for sure the outcome, so it is about managing chance and probability. -560 in this case is a bad play not because it lost, but because it puts you in very bad situation when we are not controlling the outcome but trying to put into a situation with most likelihood of making a profit. Illustration below:

Option 1:
risking $560 to win $100 on Jankovic
best outcome won $100 (18% return on investment)
worst outcome lost $560
actual outcome lost $560

Option 2:
$135 to win $100 for monfils
$125 to win $100 for robredo
$100 to win $125 for razzano
$435 to win $100 for serena
best outcome won $425 (53% return on investment)
worst outcome lost $795
actual outcome won $200 (25% return on investment and quite easily secured through monfils and serena)

[Dark Horse]

My model had Jankovic priced at -4600

My book doesn't have Jankovic as a model.

[RogueScholar]

I hacked into Lou's computer and found the first page of his tennis model. It's quite eye-opening...

[yisman]

My book doesn't have Jankovic as a model.

[smitch124]

I hacked into Lou's computer and found the first page of his tennis model. It's quite eye-opening...

Ah, the ol' curved frictionless ramp, so many of those in the real world , I think the elephant in the way is more likely!

[mathdotcom]

Ah, the ol' curved frictionless ramp, so many of those in the real world , I think the elephant in the way is more likely!

Ah, the ol moron who does not understand the purpose of theory.

[AgainstAllOdds]

Ah, the ol moron who does not understand the purpose of theory.

Lets cut the shit mathy.

[Emmett Brown]

My problem is that he's a moderator and he's trying to bury posters.

If he's going to keep guaranteeing awful picks, he should make a sticky at the top of the forum informing everyone that he doesn't have a clue how to handicap tennis.

Then he can do whatever he wants.

It's just sickening to see people tail him.

If I was a new guy coming here and I saw a moderator guaranteeing a pick would win, I might put some stock in it. You would think that only people with a clue about gambling would become mods, right?

Plus, it's borderline spamming the way he creates a new thread for every pick. He was on two bad picks today: Jankovic and Radwanska. You would think he could just post one thread. But no. Not Lou.

The persistent spamming buries the worthwhile threads here.

Damn

You could go to the racetrack and lay 1/5...about the same as -560. The race will be over before you know it. No stress at all. Well maybe a little. I understand what you're saying about following a posted pick. I always thought the golden rule was only bet what you 'know'. I dont know a damn thing about Tennis and honestly Ive never met anyone who claimed they did. Might as well bet womens volleyball

[Emmett Brown]

Some people bet $5 per game, others $1000. Some never bet favs others only bet favs. Different strokes for different folks.

Ive bet big before and won big before which is why Ive won 5 figures a year for the past several years. And also lost big before. I just try and pick my spots with a high edge but upsets happen which is why they play the game.

But i dont regret it. Ive gone bust betting $100 a game before and never big favorites... so theres really no right strategy as far as im concerned.

stop it