6/20- 6/25 Nottingham and Wimbledon Qualifying

[nyrb1]

Hey guys, hope you're all well.

Comment on Dolgopolov/Edmund
Interesting odds, Dog has semifinal points to defend here and withdrew last week with an abdominal strain, now facing Edmund who is climbing up the rankings and is decent himself.. but really shouldn't compete if Dog is taking this remotely serious. Really one to play with a book that pays out after a match is completed. Personally though, I believe Dog will be ready to go here.
Switched to no play after reading this interview from just last week:

Do you feel like playing that tournament, then.
We'll see. Today was the first day I came on the pitch in the last four weeks and I have not yet begun to serve, because I had a back problem. I hope to play a few matches at least there. I think that the grass is the best surface to which I can return from injury, because the points are short: they are not physically in the best shape, lately I could not even run.

Giannessi -140 1x (Wimbledon Q)
I admit, it's scraping the bottom of the barrel, but the guy he's playing.. Joe Salisbury. Ranked 500ish in singles, typical worthless UK wildcard. Plies his trade more in doubles. Giannessi is a lower-level challenger player that plays only on the clay, but I really see this as an opportunity for him here. This is similar to Cuevas/Robert except on a way lower level.

Barton/Bemelmans +101 2x (Wimbledon Q)
Bemelmans is self-explanatory, he's actually decent on grass. Of course, prone to massive slip-ups but Weintraub doesn't really scare me. Barton is a lower-level challenger player but he's taking this seriously, playing the full grass season while Trungelliti is here for the typical clay no-hoper check, he also hasn't played since the FO.

Upset alerts, but not playing them: Dancevic, Vesely, Dodig. Dancevic cause he's a bit on a roll, Vesely because last week he did VERY well and Muller has played a lot of tennis (my favorite upset play), Dodig because Anderson hasn't been very trustworthy.

[Lightning]

Agree with most of this, but be careful with clay players on grass - the 'worthless british wildcard' has the home support and probably grew up playing on the surface. It counts for something. Trungelitti is also pretty decent tbh, not sure how he'll go but you'd have to back Barton in because he's played on the surface already.

[nyrb1]

Yep yep, Giannessi was pretty disappointing! Broken serving for the match, but can't complain because I benefited the opposite way with Barton (good warning with Trungelitti) while Bemelmans won easily. As for the upset alerts, happy for Dancevic! Dodig won a set but never looked like he could do it, and Vesely gave it the old college try but it's hard when you're playing an invincible servebot on grass.

And funny was I was gonna go 2x on Dolgopolov but wanted to be safe, he was moving like a cat out there today with absolutely no problems.

Giannessi -140 1x
Barton/Bemelmans +101 2x


Krajicek/Falla +108 2x (Wimbledon Q)
Krajicek is more a Salisbury fade. Krajicek isn't the best on grass, but he is still top 100 material and pretty serviceable on hardcourt. Beat a solid guy in JP Smith while Salisbury squeaked by a clay guy. If Krajicek qualifies having built up some steam and gets a favorable draw, he could do something. Falla is getting older but this guy has always been one of my favorites in certain spots. Here he faces mostly a clay guy in Kovalik who is decent, but Falla has qualified every single year of his career except once. He is what he is, a guy who hovers around the top 100 that loves Wimbledon.

De Schepper +115 1.5x (Wimbledon Q)
Big server on grass facing Copil who had a nice run lately, but again, I look at the matches based on how comfortable a guy is especially with a short grass season. De Schepper is no joke, if you look at his prior grass matches you know that. He may be on a downswing but this is by far his best surface.

Bemelmans/Halys/Barton -112 1x (Wimbledon Q)
1 unit because.. it's Bemelmans. I like his game when he's on... but he's mostly not on. M-M is not your typical Spaniard clay guy, he has had success on other surfaces but Bemelmans, if on, should have enough. Halys and Barton big favorites added to even out the odds.

Cuevas -155 1x (Nottingham)
Realistically you look at this match and think Evans is in for a rough time. But because this is Cuevas's worst surface, the match might be tighter than it should be. And because Evans had a decent win vs Berankis and has some momentum, he could spring the upset. Cuevas is on another level tennis-wise, grass or not, but Evans at his peak is pretty formidable. Cuevas is different from Berankis though, and if he's interested there are some bonus ranking points for the taking.

Well definitely be looking at in-play opportunities in Nottingham, plenty of evenly-matched matches.

[kidthrillz]

Please keep your picks to yourself from now on. You are awful and have no clue what you're doing. Falla to beat Kovalik? What an idiot. De schepper to beat a Copil? Krajicek BAReLY won. You are horrible and stop wasting people's time and money acting like some know it all. You don't know your ass from a hole in the ground.

[Semper Fidelis]

Please keep your picks to yourself from now on. You are awful and have no clue what you're doing. Falla to beat Kovalik? What an idiot. De schepper to beat a Copil? Krajicek BAReLY won. You are horrible and stop wasting people's time and money acting like some know it all. You don't know your ass from a hole in the ground.

Hey there buddy take a chill pill and get out of here with that negative crap! No one forced you to place your money on his picks, win or lose! He's merely trying to make a thread and contribute to the tennis forum here! I would understand if he was like most people here, all arrogant talking about 'locks' and 'follow me make lots of money' attention-seeking crap, but he has done nothing of the sort and your attack is unwarranted and unnecessary!

[Steamroller]

Eguchi Leads third set 5-1 and loses it 5-7. What a fkin chokejob.

[Lightning]

Please keep your picks to yourself from now on. You are awful and have no clue what you're doing. Falla to beat Kovalik? What an idiot. De schepper to beat a Copil? Krajicek BAReLY won. You are horrible and stop wasting people's time and money acting like some know it all. You don't know your ass from a hole in the ground.

You're a massive c**t

[kidthrillz]

Excuse me for expressing my opinion in a way that seems to have ruffled some feathers. My point is valid. OP has no clue what he is doing. Playing a bunch of risky qualifying matches involving mostly players with no quality whatsoever (not to mention parlaying them - kiss of death). That is not good advice or strategy for any gambler to go by. He should at least expressly state that all his plays are extremely high risk. I'm not even upset cause I played anything of this (who in their right mind would), just more upset that he's steering people in a direction which will see them lose their money over the long run.

[nyrb1]

Thanks for all comments! Just trying to do my best, and I have plenty of tennis knowledge to share.

EPlaying a bunch of risky qualifying matches involving mostly players with no quality whatsoever (not to mention parlaying them - kiss of death). He should at least expressly state that all his plays are extremely high risk.

1. I'm not sure if you've been to slam qualifying, but these guys have plenty of quality, the problem is putting it together for a long period of time. 2. Every play is a high risk, there is a risk of losing money!

Krajicek/Falla +108 2x
De Schepper +115 1.5x
Bemelmans/Halys/Barton -112 1x
Cuevas -155 1x

Falla blew about 5 break points in 3rd set "overtime" and couldn't get it done which was disappointing. De Schepper was admittedly a bad pick, he never looked like he had a chance. Bemelmans hung in there and got the W in a marathon, and Cuevas did the same.

Johnson +180 2x (Nottingham)
I like this bet for two reasons. 1. Johnson's serve has been untouchable lately. Anderson's has been too but he hasn't played any top 20/30 guys except Tomic, and lost that one. If you saw the books lines for KAnderson against Verdasco, you know they still don't have full confidence in him and his slightly sub-par opposition may have made him look better than he is, therefore books are all-in on him now thinking he's back to normal which I seriously doubt.This may go to a tiebreaker or two, which means coin flip. 2. Anderson has a penchant for tanking the pre-Wimby tournament. He gives Queens 100%, but never goes far if he plays the pre-slam one. He is getting back from injury and took on an increased workload. He has raised his level significantly enough so that he doesn't need extra match practice anticipating his typical deep Wimbledon run, he can gear up with the 1st/2nd round matches. Even if my 2nd reason isn't good.. I still think Johnson plays him very very close.

Baghdatis -3.5 -120 2x (Nottingham)
Cuevas squeaked by Evans, and it says a lot about Evans's level and Cuevas's guts that he did. He was shanking a lot of balls, his mind simply programmed to the clay and couldn't get around to the grass way of thinking. Somehow he kept in there and sheer determination saw him through.. but he did not do too well in extended rallies. Baghdatis is rolling along and really should have no trouble getting a comfortable victory.

Note on Dolgopolov: he has looked good, but is taking on another level of grass-courter in Muller. Enough to stay away from this one, or only look at it live and make a determination based on how he handles Muller's serve at first.

Note on Wimbledon: final qualifying match is 5 sets, and these challenger-level players can be random. Staying away. The only lean I have is Brands cause he can keep pumping that serve forever and Bemelmans can't maintain his level all that well, but -160 is a stretch for me.

[kidthrillz]

These plays are much more sensible and don't involve parlays. I think you have logical reasoning behind the plays and I wish you luck sir. Sorry if I offended you in with my previous comments, just looking to protect others from possible demise.

[nyrb1]

If others blindly follow, they deserve their demise!

Baghdatis -3.5 -120 2x
Johnson +180 2x (Pending)

I thought if I was gonna lose the bet at least have Cuevas win, and he did. Easily his best result on grass but Muller is next! Johnson/Anderson very tight as expected, suspended at the business end of the 3rd set with Johnson +140 and likely heading to a match-defining TB.

Nothing sticks out for the end of both tournaments.

Taking a flier on Vesnina +738 2x (Eastbourne) against Pliskova. Horrible start and 0-4 down, but an extremely solid grass courter who already has two great wins against Bencic and Brengle. Was the definition of a super hot start with Pliskova already warmed up playing two matches in one day vs a super cold start, Vesnina 2/8 1st serves won! For WTA losing the first set is really nothing, perfect time to reset and re-evaluate.

[nyrb1]

Johnson +180 2x
Vesnina +738 2x

I knew one of the two suspended women's games would have a comeback, and I picked the wrong one. Johnson made quick work of Anderson then routined Seppi (which I played unposted) and I must say he is impressing a lot. Super solid.

Johnson -190 2x (Nottingham)

Johnson almost unbreakable, and playing very very very well. Cuevas somehow keeps winning which is great in itself, but he's had a bit of luck saving almost all the break points he found himself in. Difference is Johnson has been returning well and will put balls in play, make Cuevas work aside from the really short (and boring, tbh) matches he found himself in against Baghdatis and Muller. Johnson hasn't been afraid to go toe-to-toe, and Cuevas will be found wanting at some moments.

Berlocq -220 1X (Milan)
The reason for Berlocq to enter these tournaments is to find his groove again. He's lost it a bit and has been gaining confidence in the challengers again, almost always going very deep. Cecchinato has had a somewhat easy draw and is clearly a level below Berlocq. These are the types of matches he should be winning, there is no special reasoning for this pick.

[innn]

Berlocq -220 1X (Milan)
The reason for Berlocq to enter these tournaments is to find his groove again. He's lost it a bit and has been gaining confidence in the challengers again, almost always going very deep. Cecchinato has had a somewhat easy draw and is clearly a level below Berlocq. These are the types of matches he should be winning, there is no special reasoning for this pick.[/QUOTE]

This is the dangerous kind a bet that exposes you here. I will bet Cecchinato.

[nyrb1]

Not for nothing but I know why the tennis forum here is dead. Absolutely no feedback and nothing but criticism. I'll keep going though in an attempt to make things better!

Johnson -190 2x
Berlocq -220 1X (Milan)

Johnson had no problem, but Berlocq had plenty.

Summary of this week: slightly disappointing, the "extra" pick pretty much negated the meat and potatoes of it. On to Wimbledon!

5-6 -2.39

[Lightning]

Not for nothing but I know why the tennis forum here is dead. Absolutely no feedback and nothing but criticism. I'll keep going though in an attempt to make things better!

Johnson -190 2x
Berlocq -220 1X (Milan)

Johnson had no problem, but Berlocq had plenty.

Summary of this week: slightly disappointing, the "extra" pick pretty much negated the meat and potatoes of it. On to Wimbledon!

5-6 -2.39

I know what you mean haha.. easy for people who aren't giving picks to sit back and criticize