to win the the FO? Two very impressive wins and 6/7 sets won vs Kyrios and Nishi.If he is going to do it he will have to beat Murray then most likely Wawrinka and Novak.The crowd will be 1000% behind him and he fed off it yesterday.I guess if Leceister City can win the EPL then this should be a piece of cake.
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No. He will be smoked by scot...who will then be dismissed by Wawa....who will then be out-played by Djokovic.
It's all gonna be boring as usual.Comment -
Well with matches being cancelled today it could down the road be to his advantage as Novak will have to play 4 matches in 6 days...We keep forgetting as well how much the weather affects the actual play of the balls.Helps and hurts certain players style.Comment -
It's an interesting way to analyse it but I think the guy that handles it best and knows what he is doing when it comes to it is still the guy ranked #1 at the moment.
Let's look back at his 2012 Final against Nadal...And speaking of Nadal, the guy who those conditions favour (Nadal) is out. Against nearly any other player on tour the wet conditions favour Nadal. That's why I think it's wrong to just say "Nadal's shots couldn't kick off the court, therefore it doesn't suit him." When it's wet it usually favours Nadal because when you take cold winners out of the game he's 2nd best on tour by a MILE.
But when Djokovic went down 0-2 against Nadal in that final and the weather changed he completely changed his shot selection (helped a little by the conditions) to the sort of game he plays on hard court. Effectively he's trying to open the court up on nearly every shot even if it means being exposed.
The reason why it's so effective is because the ball is bouncing lower now so when Nadal tries to take advantage and 'rip' the ball away the spin just doesn't have the same effect. So Novak feels safer hitting the ball to open up the court because he knows he can't be hurt.
And Nadal knows it too. You could see how pissed off he is. It's exactly the same as the Wimbledon final in 2011.
Did he started to hit the ball better? Yeah. Sure. But that's not the big reason there is a difference. He's getting his body behind the ball so that he can use the ground reactive force in his legs to get the extra power. And he knows he can do it because Nadal can't take him out of court as much, so he's willing to do the extra running.
Aggressive movement, aggressive shot selection. And he's got enough speed and endurance to do it for long periods of time. Nadal knows and he hates it. He's basically playing a game he knows he can and that he knows Nadal can't.
Tactically (in the same match), It has to do with recovery positions and the angles available from different positions on the court. Nadal plays a game which basically states straight up "I am better than anyone at hitting balls into positions where you can't attack me without taking huge risks, and I can do it longer than anyone". Watch the angle that his balls bounce as they cross the baseline. He gets them jumping up near vertical. So a normal player (on clay) has to take huge risks because they know they can't compete with his game. Players that don't have an alternate game (Ferrer) just get chopped.
However Djokovic usually wants to take those risks because it opens the court up and he's fast enough to get to Nadal's response. On a dry clay court though Djokovic's flat attacking balls get held up and then the spin from Nadal just puts the ball way too far out of court for it to be a winning strategy (most of the time).
As the court gets wet, Djokovic's flat attacking shots still get held up, but Nadal's response isn't as devastating because a wet ball doesn't bounce the same. So now Djokovic is willing to take the risk because he knows he can get back across the court and in doing so he's opened up the whole court for both players which is where he is significantly better than Nadal.
TL;DR Version: People assume that heavy balls favour the grinder because it takes away the winners from the aggressive player. The is normally true but it fails here because:
1) Cold winners were never on the cards
2) Djokovic's winning plays are 2-5 shots in complexity.
3) Nadal's heavy crosscourt forehand is less effective on the wet, which allows Djokovic to have a recovery position closer to the centre (rather than the left) which takes away Nadal's surprise forehand down the line.Comment -
Whoops went OT a bit there on my rant with conditions and player suitability. That said with Gasquet...tough call...talented player, just never felt he had the mental drive. I wish he could play every big match the way he played Stan at Wimbledon last year. It was even more impressive then his grindathon come from behind win against Roddick there.
On clay though, I think several times tougher.Comment -
Well murray just came off playing too giants..Totally diff now with gasquet.Maybe will be a hard adjustment..maybe not.I think he can beat Murray..But Stan gets crabs from Vekic and retires vs Ramos and Gas Can walks into the final..😆Comment -
not a chanceComment
