Monday (16/05) Tennis Picks
Hey guys, thought I'd add a bit of value to this forum by posting my picks when I can. If you're a little confused by the pricing system, you can convert it to the American system as follows:
1) Take the price, and multiply it by 100.
2) Subtract 100 from that.
3) Whack a + in front of it.
i.e. $3.50 -> 3.5 x 100 = 350 -> 350-100 = +250
If you don't want to do that every time, the decimal system is still fairly easy to follow. $2 is the same as +100, and $1.90 is evens, or what you guys would call -110. The number in front of the dollar sign is what you'd get if you put $1 on it i.e. if you have a price of $1.50 - putting $1 on that would return you $15, or $5 profit.
ATP NICE
- Zverev -2.5 games - $1.66 - TWO STAKES
Edmund's form line on clay looks fairly impressive, with 12 wins from his last 15. Let's dig a bit deeper. He's played three ATP level players in that time (Garcia Lopez, Rosol and Paire). He lost to both Paire and Garcia Lopez. The rest of the players he's beat have been challenger players. Not taking anything away from him - those guys are still hard to beat - but they're a hell of a lot easier than Zverev will be.
Zverev has had his best year by a long way, and it's not even half way. On hard, he's beaten Simon twice, Pospisil, Cilic and Dimitrov. On clay, he's recorded impressive victories over Goffin, Dimitrov and Belluci, among others. He pushed Thiem to three sets, and Thiem has arguably been one of the best clay players this year. Point being, Zverev is on the up and in good form. I watched a couple of his matches in Munich and his shot making and serving was impressive. Edmund is going to be a good player, but Zverev is in better shape right now.
- Schwartzman to WIN - $2.70 - HALF STAKE
One of the biggest principles in tennis handicapping is to ride the form. Schwartzman is a classic example of this. After beating Tomic, Dzumhur and Bagnis, you would've thought, 'surely he won't beat Delbonis'. Wrong. After that, you would've thought, 'SURELY he won't beat Dimitrov'. He didn't just beat Dimitrov; he spanked him. He's coming up against Verdasco - surely Verdasco won't lose to Schwartzman?
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ATP GENEVA
- Delbonis -4.5 games - $1.72 - TWO STAKES
A classic example of value. Tipsarevic has played three matches (and lost two of them) since May of last year, and even back then he was fairly average on clay. He also has a negative w/l ratio against left handers. Delbonis has been impressive this year on clay, and has a w/l percentage of 59% on the surface in his career. I'm not going to back him against anyone in the top 30 or so, but Delbonis should be putting away Janko fairly easily.
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WTA STRASBOURG
- Sara Errani to WIN - $2.10 - ONE STAKE
Another bit of value. Puig's record has a similar pattern: beat two or three fairly easy players, come up against someone good, and then lose. Rinse and repeat. She's not amazing against GOOD clay players on clay.
Errani has lost her last three on the red stuff, but before that, won 15 of her last 17. She has the pedigree, and knows how to play on the surface. I'm backing her to turn her form around ahead of the French.
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WTA NUREMBURG
- Yulin Putinseva -4.5 games - $2.1 - ONE STAKE
- Vogt +4.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE
- Annika Beck - $1.90 - ONE STAKE
- Larsson to WIN - $1.90 - HALF STAKE
Fridman is a young player, and she's only played three WTA matches on the surface. Putinseva is a solid clay player. If you take away her last two matches, she's won 17 of her last 23 on clay. She had a great start to the year in Charleston and Rabat, and would be disappointed if she didn't also make it through this one against a green qualifier. Value
Riding the form again here. Vogt has won her last two in qualifying (indicating she's comfortable with the surface). Hercog has lost her last four. Bit of a feeling play, but that's gambling, and 4 and a half is value.
The Pereira/Beck match puzzled me. Both of them have been in horrible form lately, yet both are priced at evens. Pereira probably has more experience on clay, but I'd say Beck is the better player. PLUS, the huge advantage is that Beck is playing AT HOME, so she'll have the support of the crowd. $1.90 is a nice price.
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MEGA MULTI (basically just all the games that I didn't like the lines for)
- McHale x Stephens x Stosur x Cervantes x Carreno-Busta - $2.50 - HALF STAKE
Cheers guys. Remember that it's all about long term - don't get too hung up over a bad night's results.
1) Take the price, and multiply it by 100.
2) Subtract 100 from that.
3) Whack a + in front of it.
i.e. $3.50 -> 3.5 x 100 = 350 -> 350-100 = +250
If you don't want to do that every time, the decimal system is still fairly easy to follow. $2 is the same as +100, and $1.90 is evens, or what you guys would call -110. The number in front of the dollar sign is what you'd get if you put $1 on it i.e. if you have a price of $1.50 - putting $1 on that would return you $15, or $5 profit.
ATP NICE
- Zverev -2.5 games - $1.66 - TWO STAKES
Edmund's form line on clay looks fairly impressive, with 12 wins from his last 15. Let's dig a bit deeper. He's played three ATP level players in that time (Garcia Lopez, Rosol and Paire). He lost to both Paire and Garcia Lopez. The rest of the players he's beat have been challenger players. Not taking anything away from him - those guys are still hard to beat - but they're a hell of a lot easier than Zverev will be.
Zverev has had his best year by a long way, and it's not even half way. On hard, he's beaten Simon twice, Pospisil, Cilic and Dimitrov. On clay, he's recorded impressive victories over Goffin, Dimitrov and Belluci, among others. He pushed Thiem to three sets, and Thiem has arguably been one of the best clay players this year. Point being, Zverev is on the up and in good form. I watched a couple of his matches in Munich and his shot making and serving was impressive. Edmund is going to be a good player, but Zverev is in better shape right now.
- Schwartzman to WIN - $2.70 - HALF STAKE
One of the biggest principles in tennis handicapping is to ride the form. Schwartzman is a classic example of this. After beating Tomic, Dzumhur and Bagnis, you would've thought, 'surely he won't beat Delbonis'. Wrong. After that, you would've thought, 'SURELY he won't beat Dimitrov'. He didn't just beat Dimitrov; he spanked him. He's coming up against Verdasco - surely Verdasco won't lose to Schwartzman?
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ATP GENEVA
- Delbonis -4.5 games - $1.72 - TWO STAKES
A classic example of value. Tipsarevic has played three matches (and lost two of them) since May of last year, and even back then he was fairly average on clay. He also has a negative w/l ratio against left handers. Delbonis has been impressive this year on clay, and has a w/l percentage of 59% on the surface in his career. I'm not going to back him against anyone in the top 30 or so, but Delbonis should be putting away Janko fairly easily.
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WTA STRASBOURG
- Sara Errani to WIN - $2.10 - ONE STAKE
Another bit of value. Puig's record has a similar pattern: beat two or three fairly easy players, come up against someone good, and then lose. Rinse and repeat. She's not amazing against GOOD clay players on clay.
Errani has lost her last three on the red stuff, but before that, won 15 of her last 17. She has the pedigree, and knows how to play on the surface. I'm backing her to turn her form around ahead of the French.
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WTA NUREMBURG
- Yulin Putinseva -4.5 games - $2.1 - ONE STAKE
- Vogt +4.5 games - $2 - ONE STAKE
- Annika Beck - $1.90 - ONE STAKE
- Larsson to WIN - $1.90 - HALF STAKE
Fridman is a young player, and she's only played three WTA matches on the surface. Putinseva is a solid clay player. If you take away her last two matches, she's won 17 of her last 23 on clay. She had a great start to the year in Charleston and Rabat, and would be disappointed if she didn't also make it through this one against a green qualifier. Value
Riding the form again here. Vogt has won her last two in qualifying (indicating she's comfortable with the surface). Hercog has lost her last four. Bit of a feeling play, but that's gambling, and 4 and a half is value.
The Pereira/Beck match puzzled me. Both of them have been in horrible form lately, yet both are priced at evens. Pereira probably has more experience on clay, but I'd say Beck is the better player. PLUS, the huge advantage is that Beck is playing AT HOME, so she'll have the support of the crowd. $1.90 is a nice price.
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MEGA MULTI (basically just all the games that I didn't like the lines for)
- McHale x Stephens x Stosur x Cervantes x Carreno-Busta - $2.50 - HALF STAKE
Cheers guys. Remember that it's all about long term - don't get too hung up over a bad night's results.
