2016 Australian Summer/Oceania & Australian Open Picks

[Jeff_Black]

Brisbane Internatonal

Round 1: Hyeon Chung vs Sam Groth
Handicap: Sam Groth +2.0 @ 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Chung should have some relatively good success on the tour working his way up from the Chalengers but it won't start here in Brisbane where he has never played before, and in general, a lack of exposure to the Australian surfaces.
I know Groth has come back from an injury layoff but by all all reports he is fit and ready to go. Recent media reports suggest he is not in Brisbane to make up the numbers and should be rearing to go to pickup rankings points so he does not have to rely on a Wildcard like he did for the Sydneh International.

Bol to all the regulars here who wager on tennis matches his upcoming season, hopefully you all do better then you did last year and hopefully we can all beat the bookies!

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International

Futures/Outright Markets
To win the tournament: Roger Federer @ 2.00 on William Hill
Stake: 5u play

The only real difficult opponent for Federer is Gilles Simon a guy who he seems to have struggled against even at the major tournaments but the rest of the draw is good but I think not good enough to stop him. This is his only preparation for the Australian Open so I don't think he will be happy to leave here losing match especially considering the large appearence fee he gets for playing here in Brisbane.
Ill be keeping an eye on Nishikori's form as he has had some good showings here in recent years. It's unfortunate last year Raonic played one of his unbreakable servebot games last year in their Semis and there was not much he could do about it.

[reedy]

How much do you think his {rodger's} appearence fee is? 1m +?

[Jeff_Black]

Without a doubt about that much IMO. They probably make that back and then some anyway. Ticket sales and interest have gone up both years since Federer added the tournament to it's schedule so it's no surprise.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International

Grigor Dimitrov vs Gilles Simon
Handicap: Gilles Simon +1.5 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Interesting odds for this matchup, the young vs the old, however until Dimitrov proves to people that he is taking his tennis seriously then he should be fade material especially as a favourite. Both players finished off 2015 well enough especially Dimitrov who put some fight in his matches.
However the matchup is one that should suit Simon's style of game.

[trytrytry]

mental note to self.

read this thread each day.

[reedy]

Good luck this season Jeff.

[Jeff_Black]

Thanks reedy, you too.

Disappointing start with Simon blowing several chances in the tiebreak. Guess you can't expect too much from first matches.

However not a bad result to make Federer's draw a tad easier. He usually handles Dimitrov well if he plays him and that leaves Cilic as his toughest opponent.

[Conqueror]

Thanks reedy, you too.

Disappointing start with Simon blowing several chances in the tiebreak. Guess you can't expect too much from first matches.

However not a bad result to make Federer's draw a tad easier. He usually handles Dimitrov well if he plays him and that leaves Cilic as his toughest opponent.

Is Cilic fully healthy now? Just asking.

[Jeff_Black]

Doesn't have any injury issues. Not that I am aware of. He has been in Australia for a while training hard making up for lost time last year.
The thing that concerns me about Cilic is his poor record against the best players and outside that US Open run last year while he was working his way up from an injury and then fully healthy he was winless against them.
That and usually he doesn't try and go all out in warm up tournaments (usually saves them for Europe)

[Conqueror]

Thanks Jeff.

[Jeff_Black]

No worries

Another choke job? Why not!?
Time to check out the other matches

[Honeybadger44]

How much do you think his {rodger's} appearence fee is? 1m +?

Without a doubt about that much IMO. They probably make that back and then some anyway. Ticket sales and interest have gone up both years since Federer added the tournament to it's schedule so it's no surprise.

<br>
<br>

I think I read an article year or two ago, that he didn't want to play in his hometown (Basel), after director of the tournament refused to pay him 1m+ appearance fee.

Wether those rumors were true or not, I agree with you guys that he probably makes close to million just to play these tournaments.


And btw Jeff, good luck with your picks in 2016.

[MGTennisTipster]

There was an article last season about Federer refusing to play at St. Petersburg, unless he received a $2 million appearance fee

According to that same article, Federer appearance fee on Brisbane was $800.000

[Jeff_Black]

<br>
<br>
And btw Jeff, good luck with your picks in 2016.

Thanks man, you too

ATP Brisbane International: Round 1
David Goffin vs Tomaz Belluci
Set Betting: David Goffin 2-0 @ 1.80 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Two players who play their best tennis on other surfaces but I consider Goffin the better player here looking to improve on his form in the last 2 years. Wasn't sure about the line but I think Goffin should win this in 2 sets. Belluci has never been an over .500 per season on HC in his career and I don't expect this year to be any different. He played 2 matches in the Australian Summer last year and lost both of them. He finished 2015 with a string of losses on hardcourt and his record against better players on Hards is unspectacular.

[Jeff_Black]

Crap drawcard in Chennai so far but this stood out a little

ATP Chennai 250, Round 1 - Taro Daniel vs Guillermo Garcia Lopez
Total Score: Under 22.0 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Feel that this could be a tad too high but as much as I like Garcia-Lopez I don't trust him as much on hardcourts but I do think if he wins the first set against Taro Daniel he will take it out in two. i was tempted to take Taro Daniel +3.5 but I feel like I may be overestimating his Challenger form which was, to be realistic against a lot of chumps which is normal.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Doha 250, Round 1 - Fernando Verdasco vs Malek Jaziri
Total Score: Over 21.0 @ 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Verdasco has hit a bit of a bump in a downer year for him but with that hardcourts have never been his best surface, and being the first game of the year with a player of Verdasco's style and at times his low margin for error I expect to see a bit of rust and potentially a three set match against a Jaziri who is a bit of a later bloomer but has shown sprinkles of what he can do in the main draw making several good runs.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Chennai 250
Futures/Outright tournaments
To win the tournament: Kevin Anderson @ 6.00
Stake: 0.5u play

Surely these odds are a little bit generous. Chennai's draw is extremely soft and Coric/Bautista are the main threats on his side. One of which doesn't specialise on hardcourts.
Then an interesting match against his ATP tour b***ch Stan the man. Worth a small play in my eyes if the inconsistent Stan does show up.

[Pinocchio]

ATP Doha 250, Round 1 - Fernando Verdasco vs Malek Jaziri
Total Score: Over 21.0 @ 1.847 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Verdasco has hit a bit of a bump in a downer year for him but with that hardcourts have never been his best surface, and being the first game of the year with a player of Verdasco's style and at times his low margin for error I expect to see a bit of rust and potentially a three set match against a Jaziri who is a bit of a later bloomer but has shown sprinkles of what he can do in the main draw making several good runs.

Or, to be more direct, Verdasco the matchfixer will deliberately lose the first set...

http://lastwordonsports.com/2015/11/07/curious-case-fernando-verdascos-odds/

[Jeff_Black]

Thanks for the link that was very interesting.
And what better way then to 'drop' a first set then in your first match of the year? Hehe

[Jeff_Black]

On a side note me and my mate made betting Verdasco on overs 'a thing' because even if he loses there was a good chance he would take a set a lot of the time esp on clay.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Doha, Round 1 - Pablo Carreno Busta vs Rafael Nadal
Handicap: Pablo Carreno Busta +6.5 @ 1.833 (Pinnacle)
Stake: 1u play

Was -6 and went to 6.5 so ill grab that line. I'm not trying to buy too much into the 'new and improved' Nadal until I see the results in serious matches. Further to that he has no issue packing his bags early and heading down under but he may last more then a match compared to last year. But with all that said about Nadal I think Carreno Busta can hold his own.

[Jeff_Black]

Disappointing from Busta to lose by the hook, anyway gotta move forward

ATP: Brisbane International, Round 16, Grigor Dimitrov vs Viktor Troicki
Handicap: Viktor Troicki +3.5 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Always said to myself that I would take the points with Troicki if they offer 3.5 so thankfully that was the case today. Definately the more polished at the moment out of the two so hopefully a close game today.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane International, Round 16, Kei Nishikori vs Mikhail Kukushkin
Handicap: Mikhail Kukushkin +5.0 @ 1.877 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Tough to pick out those that start slow but I think a 5 game head start is a bit generous. Though at the start of the 2015 Nishikori was never the quickest starter at tournaments in best of three set matches anyway. Even going through the calendar to clay court, grass and then again hardcourt season there are a lot of tournaments where kei started slow and then picked up his game. With Kukushkin's big serving and opportunity to pick up points after going to Sydney to defend his Final appearence I expect him to put in a bit here in Brisbane.

[Gargo]

WTA.......Tuesday night

Good luck...

[Jeff_Black]

Thanks, did get a bit lucky after Kei only briefly started slow then picked it up straight away, so I'll take the push there.

[Honeybadger44]

Disappointing from Busta to lose by the hook, anyway gotta move forward

ATP: Brisbane International, Round 16, Grigor Dimitrov vs Viktor Troicki
Handicap: Viktor Troicki +3.5 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Always said to myself that I would take the points with Troicki if they offer 3.5 so thankfully that was the case today. Definately the more polished at the moment out of the two so hopefully a close game today.

Not a big fan of this pick. Don't like the matchup for the serb here. He is a great bet against the players, who rely heavily on their serve, because he was maybe even the best returner outside top 10, last year. But against good all-round players, he's kinda lost, because once he gets involved in rallies, he is way too passive, because he simply doesn't have the power on his groundstrokes, to go for it. Against players like Dimitrov, it's tough to win like that.

Brisbane has pretty fast conditions, from what I saw, so he might keep it close, if he maintains his serve on a high level throughout the match. So +3.5 might be just enough in the end. But not worth the risk, imho. Best of luck anyway!

[Jeff_Black]

Yeah it was an interestingly tight spot but I think with the potential of a three set match its about right.
Keep in mind Simon was VERY close to winning that second set but some errors at crucial times also hindered him from converting those set points.
If Troicki can win the first set its def game on but if he loses in the TB or something I think he'll go down in two sets.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Doha 250, RD32, Teymuraz Gabashvill vs Illya Marchenko
Money line: Teymuraz Gabasvill @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Sure Marchenko had a good win against a usual rusty slow starter Ferrer but no way should the odds be pick em.
Usually fading someone who causes an upset is one of my things so I'll take the better odds on Gabashvill who should win in this spot.

[Honeybadger44]

Agree. Having this matchup in 1st round, we would probably see odds in 1.30 area for Gabashvili to win... Marchenko had a big win yesterday, gotta give him credit for that, but I feel this is overreaction. Not to mention that Gabashvili had a good win as well, because Bolelli is no pushover either.
And I'll always rather take guy like Gabashvili, who competes his ass off every time he steps on the courts, over player who shows flashes of good tennis from time to time, but is inconsistant. Good luck

[Jeff_Black]

Thanks, you too
Bit worried he's gone up to 2.03 on Pinny
It was a similar case with Marchenko when he came off a win against a Gulbis who didn't give a crap in the Vancouver Challenger after nearly beating Novak in one of the North American masters can't remember which
Let's just hope it's a public overreaction ey?

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Doha 250, Round 32 - Ricardas Berankis vs Andrey Kuznetsov
Handicap: Ricardas Berankis -1.5 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

Another surprisingly tight match up. A player who is more seasoned on the ATP tour who's preferred surface is the hard courts versus a more so challenger player who prefers the clay surface. Berankis toughed out a three set match against Seppi, no easy feat to beat a scrapper and fighter of Seppi's calibre. Kuznetsov beat Illhan who has thus far been and lacked match practice on the main draw.

[Jeff_Black]

Well Troicki went out as planned, the others though...

ATP Doha QF, Novak Djokovic vs Leonardo Mayer
Total Score: Over 17.5 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

As brilliant as Novak has been beating everyone he has played into submission in his path there has to be a point where you take him on when he's hot. Been hurt by it in the past but I feel 17.5 games is a little low for a guy who has done a good job here in Mayer. Novak's been Brown and Verdasco, two players who have been very unspectacular in typical easy Novak fashion. If he does it again ill probably leave him alone haha.

[Jeff_Black]

ATP Brisbane QF, Milos Raonic vs Lucas Pouille
Handicap: Lucas Pouille +4.0 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

I don't know how favoured Raonic should be but I felt Pouille was absolutely solid this tournament so far and against Goffin. He was pounding the ball hard and pushing Goffin behind the baseline, and I think he could do the same to Raonic paddling the ball to his weaker less offensive backhanded side.
His serve is sound enough that even if he isn't able to break past Raonic's serve he could still cover the doable 4 game head start.

[reedy]

Solid write ups Jeff.

I don't bet ATP but this is good stuff.