ATP Shanghai Masters 1000 plays

GoBlue77 · 10-11-15, 08:21 PM

no telling where these dudes heads are at. best to wait a round or 2

Jeff_Black · 10-11-15, 09:09 PM

Yeah taking it slow today. Wouldn't mind taking the points with the dogs playing at home otherwise.

Pikachu · 10-12-15, 03:02 AM

What's wrong with Young? He played so well against Cilic. Now all of sudden, he plays this bad? Never seen over -200 favorite play so terrible.

Jeff_Black · 10-12-15, 03:14 AM

His serving was a bit off in that game. Double faulted on Cilics set point and when he was up 5-3, bizarre meltdown

Seppi blew a match point and Ivo was down a mini break in the tiebreaker, got a bit lucky there heh

Geoff_Saari · 10-12-15, 04:51 AM

Wasnt Seppi up 5-1 in the 3rd set? LOL

Jeff_Black · 10-12-15, 05:04 AM

One break yeah would have been 5-2 I reckon
Italian dodgy fixer? Lol

Jeff_Black · 10-12-15, 09:14 PM

Great start to the first day, onto the second

Richard Gasquet vs Gilles Muller
Handicap: Richard Gasquet -2.5 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
1u play

Pablo Cuevas vs Viktor Troicki
Moneyline: Viktor Troicki @ 1.726 on Pinnacle
1u play

Tommy Haas vs Kevin Anderson
Total Score: Under 22.5 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle
1u play

VtecMouse · 10-13-15, 01:14 PM

Nice plays this morning, you killed it !!

Jeff_Black · 10-13-15, 08:11 PM

Thanks! got a bit fortunate that Troicki fought back but think if he was good enough to beat Raoshit then he was good in this spot too. Other two were a bit more straight forward.

Novak Djokovic vs Martin Klizan
Handicap: Martin Klizan +7.0 @ 2.06 on Pinnacle
1u play

Dominic Thiem vs Feliciano Lopez
Moneyline: Dominic Thiem @ 1.884 on Pinnacle
1u play

Bernard Tomic vs David Ferrer
Total Score: Under 22.0 @ 1.97 on Pinnacle
1u play

Viktor Troicki vs Stan Wawrinka
Total Score: Over 21.5 @ 1.869 on Pinnacle
1u play

rc86 · 10-13-15, 10:29 PM

nice run man...you thinking ferrer wins?

Jeff_Black · 10-13-15, 10:49 PM

Thanks.
Yeah I would expect Ferrer to win with the way he has been going. Not that Bernie has been awful but Ferrer plays with a lot more margin for error then Verdasco and I expect it to be more difficult with a guy who plays with less UE.

rc86 · 10-13-15, 11:21 PM

right on...thanks for the tip and BOL on your plays

Jeff_Black · 10-14-15, 01:47 AM

Well I certainly didn't expect the likely under to pan out the way it did

Nysut · 10-14-15, 02:06 AM

Originally posted by Jeff_Black

Well I certainly didn't expect the likely under to pan out the way it did

David Ferrer Did not brig it here.

habitualwinning · 10-14-15, 02:08 AM

What's your theory on why Klizan will keep it close with Nole? Djoker has been blowing everyone out recently so do you think he's just due for a letdown or is there something in Klizan's game that will giver Nole trouble? You seem like you know your tennis, solid picks so far. In my opinion, tennis is the most unpredictable sport and thus one of the hardest to handicap, so anyone who picks a majority of winners is worth discussing the sport with, that's why I'm asking. Thanks and bol.

Jeff_Black · 10-14-15, 04:33 AM

Fair question. Rog last night stated in his press conference how Shanghai was more difficult to adjust to the conditions because it is more windier and more faster surface then the slower hardcourts (and IMO Beijing and Toyko) which is why he was slow against Mayerlast year and Ramos last night even though he hadn't played in a while.
But then you see guys like Kei, Fed, Ferrer, Berdych atm etc struggling and think 7 is massive considering.
That said Novaks form at Beijing was ridiculously good and while he didn't allow more then four games per match I'm taking the points with a seasoned player who hasn't been too bad on the second serve recently. And who has taken a set against Novak.
Novaks early rounds last year weren't exactly a walk in the park and IMO Klizan has been good enough to grab five games.

Jeff_Black · 10-14-15, 04:36 AM

Also cheers for the kind words but I must be picking better games or something? Lol
I started 0-3 at the U.S. open before picking it up but if you see the thread I took a lot of dogs on the lines which paid off.

Jeff_Black · 10-14-15, 06:17 AM

Djoker too good today, Klizan couldn't get it done on the deuce games

Jeff_Black · 10-14-15, 06:24 AM

And Troicki saves five break points to nudge the total on the over

Jeff_Black · 10-14-15, 10:22 PM

John Isner vs Andy Murray
Total Score: Over 23.5 @ 2.03 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Gilles Simon vs Tomas Berdych
Handicap: Gilles Simon +2.0 @ 2.04 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Richard Gasquet vs Bernard Tomic
Handicap: Richard Gasquet -3.5 @ 2.02 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Goat Milk · 10-14-15, 11:54 PM

Simon will have trouble with berdych imo. BOL.

Jeff_Black · 10-15-15, 08:55 AM

Yup, Simon was pretty pathetic today, ah well

Jeff_Black · 10-15-15, 11:19 PM

Kevin Anderson vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga
Moneyline: Jo Wilfried Tsonga @ 1.751 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1.5u play

Andy Murray vs Tomas Berdych
Handicap: Andy Murray -3 @ 1.877 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Rafael Nadal vs Stan Wawrinka
Moneyline: Rafael Nadal @ 1.787 on Pinnacle
Stake: 1u play

Goat Milk · 10-15-15, 11:32 PM

Murray and Rafa plays look good. I have no clue on the Anderson Tsonga match. any reasoning for that?

Jeff_Black · 10-16-15, 03:14 AM

Nadal/Stan odds movement is like a pendulum today heh, but I'll take Nadal.

As for Tsonga normally I like to fade those who have upset one of the top players but with a superior serve to Nishikori I'll take Tsonga at the better odds here. Usually he would should be 1.50s
Ando is still just really a big serve and today proved that again.

Jeff_Black · 10-16-15, 06:16 PM

Rafael Nada vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga
Handicap: Rafael Nadal -3 @ 1.877 on Pinnacle
Stake: 2u play

Can't make up my mind on the other game. So just gonna leave it

Jeff_Black · 10-17-15, 06:04 AM

Epic choke from Nadal there at the end, well done champ

Jeff_Black · 10-18-15, 01:06 AM

Novak Djokovic vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga
Handicap: Novak Djokovic -5.5 @ 1.98 on Pinnacle
Stake: 3u play

Jeff_Black · 10-18-15, 05:06 AM

13 - 5, +7.732u

good week

au222 · 10-22-15, 06:40 PM

Thanks Jeff for posting your tennis picks. I just came across this forum and I appreciate getting feedback from others on tennis handicapping. I was just curious, do you only cap the ATP Masters 1000's and the Grand Slams? I haven't come across any posts from the WTA and or the 500 or 250 series's.... Anyways, I hope you keep posting when you get a chance because we do appreciate it. Thanks again and good luck the rest of the year and beyond.

Jeff_Black · 10-22-15, 08:58 PM

Thanks champ. I am on and off (as a new poster this year) but I plan to be more hands on for the bigger events.
Yes I usually do Grand Slams and Masters without question. Then from there I pick and choose which weeks I want to have a go at tennis. Haven't really done it this week, been following things lightly like I do even though Im not betting on it.
But I don't mind doing 500/250 events for sure. Some weeks are just full of no names and it's better leaving them IMO.
Moscow is way too unpredictable and there are probably fix jobs going on there with all these Russian underdogs winning.
The others have been good to follow this week and there are some good insights on other threads if you're looking to follow them.

As for women, would just rather stay away from it all together personally from a betting perspective myself haha. Just too unpredictable