Puig Will Never Be Bet On Again

**Vinnie Paz** · 03-04-15, 08:56 AM

Whole board going nuts with all this wta

Sorry man. Just hold off till next week

**kenz** · 03-04-15, 08:57 AM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

Whole board going nuts with all this wta

Sorry man. Just hold off till next week

lol

**pattymayo** · 03-04-15, 09:10 AM

LOL

Common david, first you swear off challenger tenns, now Monica Puig?

Sounds like you may be betting a bit above your head here pal. If you had any bankroll management you'd be able to absorb these losses and not freak out and start pointless threads

**davidg123** · 03-04-15, 10:54 PM

Originally posted by pattymayo

LOL

Common david, first you swear off challenger tenns, now Monica Puig?

Sounds like you may be betting a bit above your head here pal. If you had any bankroll management you'd be able to absorb these losses and not freak out and start pointless threads

I'm actually steadily gaining money right now, and its not that I lost, its the way that I lost. Puig had four match points, including being up 5-4, 40-0 on here serve and somehow giving it away. That's frustraing.

**Cappinpicks** · 03-05-15, 01:41 AM

Originally posted by davidg123

I'm actually steadily gaining money right now, and its not that I lost, its the way that I lost. Puig had four match points, including being up 5-4, 40-0 on here serve and somehow giving it away. That's frustraing.

Yeah, two pathetic chokes back to back unthinkable, I did just win Portland so it's fine

**davidg123** · 03-05-15, 08:14 AM

Originally posted by Cappinpicks

Yeah, two pathetic chokes back to back unthinkable, I did just win Portland so it's fine

Yeah, after losing this and Presbyterian, I recovered and even gained some with Houston and Oregon.

**Cappinpicks** · 03-05-15, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by davidg123

Yeah, after losing this and Presbyterian, I recovered and even gained some with Houston and Oregon.

oregon has been free money the past 4 games now... what a team

**davidg123** · 03-05-15, 11:23 AM

Originally posted by Cappinpicks

oregon has been free money the past 4 games now... what a team

Yup. Bet on them in Cal, Stanford, and now Oregon State games. They are becoming my favorite team! Lol!

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 03-05-15, 11:30 AM

Personally, for wta betting I try not to follow the score at all, just look at it later. So many times the losses are "horrifying collapse when serving for match", or "set and break up, immediately lose six games in a row".

These losses really sting, especially if like me you're churning out huge numbers of model-generated bets, you'll have these stinkers often. I'll have a week where profit margins overall are good, but it _feels_ like I've been battered, just because of a handful of horrendous individual losses from apparent winning positions.

Easier just to come back at the end of the day, tick win/loss on the spreadsheet, and have no idea how it was achieved.

**matt1216** · 03-05-15, 12:14 PM

Just find a book where you can Cashout live

You risk 100$ on Puig to win 165$ prematch at 5-4 40-0 serving for match you could have cashed out at 160$. I do this all the time to avoid meltdowns. 5-4 40-30 would still get you 155$

**Vinnie Paz** · 03-05-15, 12:29 PM

Where does that matt besides 365?

**matt1216** · 03-05-15, 01:02 PM

Sports 888

**Cappinpicks** · 03-05-15, 01:44 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

Just find a book where you can Cashout live

You risk 100$ on Puig to win 165$ prematch at 5-4 40-0 serving for match you could have cashed out at 160$. I do this all the time to avoid meltdowns. 5-4 40-30 would still get you 155$

great idea, people gave me shlt for giving out puig as a huge bet when it wins 999 out of 1000 times.. just cashout live simple or buy out for nothing

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 03-05-15, 04:32 PM

Cashing out will lose you quite a bit longterm though - simpler just to not watch it at all. I don't enjoy women's tennis so that's not loss :-)

**matt1216** · 03-05-15, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

Cashing out will lose you quite a bit longterm though - simpler just to not watch it at all. I don't enjoy women's tennis so that's not loss :-)

Not on WTA. ATP, perhaps. I Have watched way too much horseshit at this level. I don't do it everytime. only if the person serving for the match has a history of mental weakness or a terrible first serve.

**SirtySree** · 03-05-15, 05:19 PM

Everyone has their own opinions about cashing out, personally I think it's a loss long term but really it doesn't matter which way you go as long as you are comfortable with the decision. If you're not happy hedging or not hedging and do the opposite, chances of making bad decisions after that are higher and at the end of the day, that's what is going to cost you more than your decision to hedge or not.

Also to the above, who the heck would cash out at 40-0 anyways? Chances of losing are like 1000-1 at best and I've only seen it happen in 3 matches in my time over a year which probably included well over 10,000 matches.

Also at 5-4 40-30, a cashout @1.65 original odds will not pay you $155. Anyone with simply math skills can see that without needing to calculate anything. At 40-0, you will get around $155 yes but no one cashes out in those stages and if they do, they are idiots who want to lose money.

**matt1216** · 03-05-15, 11:15 PM

Sirtee, tell me how you would lose long term... You guys have to think outside the box. If I cashed out at up 5-4 40-30 @150$ as opposed to 165$ then I'm happy... Let's say your bankroll is 500$.. You just wagerer 100$ to return 165$... Up 40-30 or 40-15 whatever the case, it's already in your head that you should be around 550$ bank.... Now what happens if you lose? Most people will get pissed and make a unlawful wager, possibly risk it all and reload just to try and win IT back. If I cashout early I may take a 10-20$ hit 50% of the time but all it takes is that one fluke or collapse to really throw you off your game or even throw your moral off completely. Physiologically it's a massive gain to know you have won Befor the match is truly over.

**SirtySree** · 03-05-15, 11:44 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

Sirtee, tell me how you would lose long term... You guys have to think outside the box. If I cashed out at up 5-4 40-30 @150$ as opposed to 165$ then I'm happy... Let's say your bankroll is 500$.. You just wagerer 100$ to return 165$... Up 40-30 or 40-15 whatever the case, it's already in your head that you should be around 550$ bank.... Now what happens if you lose? Most people will get pissed and make a unlawful wager, possibly risk it all and reload just to try and win IT back. If I cashout early I may take a 10-20$ hit 50% of the time but all it takes is that one fluke or collapse to really throw you off your game or even throw your moral off completely. Physiologically it's a massive gain to know you have won Befor the match is truly over.

I've already posted about it previously as well as above. Hedging only makes sense if bad losses are going to cause you to make bad plays. If you are disciplined and don't make bad bets after bad beats, the cost of hedging will exceed cost of not hedging. After betting for some time, you should have developed your own method of being able to take bad beats regardless so it shouldn't be an excuse to hedge.

At 5-4 40-30, Hantuchova would still have been around $5 to win. Doing the maths, a $100 to win $165 @1.65 hedged out @5 will need $33 to win $165. Meaning you are risking $133 to win $165 and essentially changed the odds from $1.65 and settled for a shocking price of $1.21 while Puig had match point. If you can't see how that is damaging in the long term, I can't help you as bad beats do not happen enough to take such shocking hedge prices.

(Keep in mind the above math is not 100% correct. A hedge would mean a guaranteed win @1.21 rather than a risk at those odds.)

**makman** · 03-06-15, 02:39 AM

Originally posted by matt1216

Sirtee, tell me how you would lose long term... You guys have to think outside the box. If I cashed out at up 5-4 40-30 @150$ as opposed to 165$ then I'm happy... Let's say your bankroll is 500$.. You just wagerer 100$ to return 165$... Up 40-30 or 40-15 whatever the case, it's already in your head that you should be around 550$ bank.... Now what happens if you lose? Most people will get pissed and make a unlawful wager, possibly risk it all and reload just to try and win IT back. If I cashout early I may take a 10-20$ hit 50% of the time but all it takes is that one fluke or collapse to really throw you off your game or even throw your moral off completely. Physiologically it's a massive gain to know you have won Befor the match is truly over.

I totally agree. Hedging tames the greed, and it is a really valuable asset you gain, that will keep you wiser and may bring success in long term

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 03-06-15, 02:47 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

Not on WTA. ATP, perhaps. I Have watched way too much horseshit at this level. I don't do it everytime. only if the person serving for the match has a history of mental weakness or a terrible first serve.

Those will both be priced in though, so it seems highly likely those hedge bets are -EV.