what the play in Novak Milos match

[biggie12]

Can't bet Milos cause he won't win what's the best play in this spot

[Vinnie Paz]

Lotta these guys on milos +6

I think Novak by 7 games

[EaglesPhan36]

Go to bed

[biggie12]

Goof call

[EaglesPhan36]

It's the main problem with Grand Slams near the business end. Everyone feels like they have to bet on every match because they don't have dozens to look at ever day.

It's okay to pass.

[Jerimjob]

the question is... do you think Milos can keep it close each set?
With his monster serve, I say yes.
I think there's at least 1 tiebreaker
Let's say 7-6 6-4 6-4 is pretty realistic
You win by taking Raonic +6
I think that's the best value for this one

[EaglesPhan36]

It's also realistic that if Novak gets a read on the serve and breaks at the right time, those sets could go 3-6, 6-7, 3-6. I think it's probably one of the better options, but again it feels like just searching for a play for myself at least instead of finding one that really makes sense.

I mean look at Nishikori-Wawrinka. Everyone was banking on a long match and it could go in straights or at least four looser sets and an under. Anything can happen obviously. I just don't like any of the numbers in the DJokovic-Raonic match. I tend to think Raonic might true to do too much because he knows he has to do something extra to compete.

[girlscoutcookies]

raonic takes at least 2 sets tonight

[girlscoutcookies]

It's the main problem with Grand Slams near the business end. Everyone feels like they have to bet on every match because they don't have dozens to look at ever day.

It's okay to pass.

stop being a buzzkill EP

[mrlif1]

I looked at the total and couldn't believe it was 36.5, over easy!...

so I like the under. One tiebreak, one break each set, even money, joker in 3.

[biggie12]

over 35.5 total games not look good to anyone?

[biggie12]

It's the main problem with Grand Slams near the business end. Everyone feels like they have to bet on every match because they don't have dozens to look at ever day.

It's okay to pass.

meant to say good call not goof call lol, i still am going to make small wager because i am up drinking there is no reason not to dabble a bit somewhere.

Looking for the over 35.5 but not sure if milos gets broken on the first set could set up early exit.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think if you're into the crazy term value +100 on 1st Set Over 10.5 would be mine. If Raonic gets broken in that 1st set, it's likely going to end in three because his confidence will take a little dip. The longer he can keep from being broken, the longer he thinks that at-worst he can serve through sets and maybe get lucky in a TB. Just my two cents.

[biggie12]

i can get +115 on the 1st over 10.5

[biggie12]

Made decent cash on the raptors tonight heres what i got.


Milos +585 $150

Milos 1st set +300 $150

Milos +2.5 -120 $150

[EaglesPhan36]

Even better. I mean it could easily win up 9 or 10 with a simple break, but that'd be the only thing that interests me. All the match spreads and totals look like they don't favor anything to me. You can make a case for any of them really.

[zacharyj53]

Why not just take the -1.5 sets at -325

[girlscoutcookies]

Why not just take the -1.5 sets at -325

ya, why not?

[biggie12]

meh i dont like it.

[zacharyj53]

meh i dont like it.

You think he is going to lose two sets?

[wildemu]

no, but the price is expensive.

[SPInvest]

what about no tie breaker +300?

[wildemu]

Nah, it should at least be one breaker. He didn't return verdasco/muller well and milos is superior to them.

[SPInvest]

whats the best bet in this matchup ?

[wildemu]

If I had to choose, it would be the over. It can still be covered with 3 tight sets.

[SPInvest]

would you think the first tie break could be in the first set since his serve should be almost untouched for the most part and the first set will still be a good feeling out process early in the matchup?

[Mase of Base]

If I had to choose, it would be the over. It can still be covered with 3 tight sets.

Yes but realistically those chances are pretty slim. I see 37.5 but others have talked about 36.5, you'd almost def need Raonic to win a set.

I think Raonic can get atleast one though, hopefully anyway I'm hoping for a long game for entertainments sake!

[wildemu]

would you think the first tie break could be in the first set since his serve should be almost untouched for the most part and the first set will still be a good feeling out process early in the matchup?

yes, i think first set is his best chance for a tb. You have to look at the other side of coin that Milos might feel tight and not serve at a high % in the beginning.

But, Novak always returns better as the match progresses.

[wildemu]

Yes but realistically those chances are pretty slim. I see 37.5 but others have talked about 36.5, you'd almost def need Raonic to win a set.

I think Raonic can get atleast one though, hopefully anyway I'm hoping for a long game for entertainments sake!

True, but I wouldn't take set handicap because over seems safer. With his game, he's covering the set and over at the same time if it were to cash in. Game handicap is scary if this does indeed go more than 3 sets so think total is safer than the other two options.

[Mase of Base]

It was amazing there wasn't a tie breaker in noles last game against Muller, he just came up clutch in the 12th game twice.

Have to rate Raonics serve as better even though Mullers is nasty. Has only won one and lost ten though v djoker.

[wildemu]

The absolute key to this match is his first serve %. If it's around 70% like he has been (apart from the federer match), then he's in this match. But, every time he has to serve a 2nd serve, he will most likely lose the point.

The pressure will get to him eventually and he may crack, no one is better than novak in making you pay for your 2nd serves.

Milos's returning really is garbage so i wouldn't count on him breaking more than once tonight.

[waste1]

i would go with 3:0 djoker

[mrlif1]

37.5 now?! Under for small stakes. Gl to all

[SPInvest]

37.5 now?! Under for small stakes. Gl to all

35.5 here

[jtoler]

Same as always Milos cant break Nole on this surface and has to rely on tiebreaks which he isnt better than Nole in either.