Question about Venus line and Murray line

[poet]

Why is Venus such a small fave here (-135)? Keys has virtually no experience in this kind of spot and their games are about even. Doesn't Venus have a big edge in the experience department and also the quality of players she has beaten?

A motivated, hungry Murray (which we hardly ever get) only -140 against Birdshit just cause he beat an out of form Nadal? Shouldn't this line be closer to -200?

I have not been following this sport but I'm very tempted by these lines. Please tell me drawbacks.

[Jerimjob]

I think you might be undervaluing Berdych a bit. Berdych outplayed Nadal big time, and hasn't lost a set in this tournament. Nadal dominated his previous 2 opponents, so although he didn't look 100%, Nadal was still the favorite there.
He has a new coach, and looks to be strong mentally, which was a problem in the past.
Not that it makes much of a difference, but Berych will also have a bit more rest than Murray.
Should be a close match IMO

Keys is also on a roll, beating Kvitova and not losing a set in her past cpl matches.
Venus played 3 sets back to back matches, so I'm seeing Keys with the minor upset here, as she's the fresher and younger of the 2, and seems to be playing better at the moment

[Jerimjob]

Thought I'd also add that Berdych's new coach is Andy Murray's ex-coach.
Just to make things more interesting haha

[AboutThatLife]

Agree with Jerimjob but if Nadal had played to the level that he was in in the third set - It would have went 4-5 - He missed everything on the vital points - I'm not one to give a player big points for beating an inferior opponent - Murray is my favorite player and I don't see him losing in this spot its best chance to win a final - Djokovic is not playing at 100% level closer to 85% and that won't be enough

Venus is going to win - this is it for her these are her last remaining stand - Keys in her last match against Brengle did things on certain points I didn't like at all - Close match Venus wins

But maybe you should take Jerimjob's opinion I'm just guessing

[AboutThatLife]

You have to also remember Venus might be off some but on her worst nights she won't produce the string of unforced errors that Keys will- Expect Keys to come out tight first set to Venus - She gave too many up against Brengle

[AboutThatLife]

Think Keys is a year away and she'll be there with Davenport as her coach

[Snowball]

Thought I'd also add that Berdych's new coach is Andy Murray's ex-coach.
Just to make things more interesting haha

yes it really is interesting, but when the tennis is played at such a high physical level as this match
will be, it's difficult to believe that either player will be making split-second decisions based on
exploiting complex coaching schemes.. they won't have time for that. Ultimately it's just going to
come down to which one has their A plus physical level happening because the challenges are
going to be mostly physical.. there might not be any tell-tale signs in the match until the 3rd set +

concerning Venus the line is only light due to her age. If she played this tournament exactly
the same way but was 10 years younger the line would be -700

[Jerimjob]

2 close matches in my eyes...
take the 2 favorites and split... loss
take the 2 dogs and split... profit

I'm on the dogs

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't see a problem with either line. Murray & Berdych are about even on h2h in their careers. Not much to separate them. So why would the price say anything different.

Keys is basically a younger version of Venus. Something to be said about experience, but Venus has still shown vulnerabilities from set to set. She looked dead in set 2 against Ag-Rad but found energy again in the 3rd. Very similar players.

[AboutThatLife]

2 close matches in my eyes...
take the 2 favorites and split... loss
take the 2 dogs and split... profit

I'm on the dogs

Take 2 dogs and lose both .... loss

[Jerimjob]

Take 2 dogs and lose both .... loss

lol this is true... but the 2 matches are close to coin flips for me... I'll take the risk

[poet]

I don't see a problem with either line. Murray & Berdych are about even on h2h in their careers. Not much to separate them. So why would the price say anything different.

Keys is basically a younger version of Venus. Something to be said about experience, but Venus has still shown vulnerabilities from set to set. She looked dead in set 2 against Ag-Rad but found energy again in the 3rd. Very similar players.

I'm looking at Murray's losses to Birdman and there are a few things that stand out to me:

1) Murray has won most of the hard court matches.

2) Murray lost a couple to Bird the year he was battling the bad back. I distinctly recall their QF match at Cinci (Murray had little interest in that match) and Murray had surgery soon after that US Open.

3) Birds win on a non indoor HC against Murray came in 2006 (before Murray was Murray).

Now you get a two time grand slam champ, with a chip on his shoulder (playing some of his best tennis in the past two years) against a guy who arguably had one of the biggest wins of his career (considering how many times he had lost to Rafa). The problem with Murray (when he is fine physically) is his head, otherwise he is a top 3 player (only behind Djoker and a healthy Nada). And his head seems to be screwed on right for this tournament.

[poet]

I'm looking at Murray's losses to Birdman and there are a few things that stand out to me:

1) Murray has won most of the hard court matches.

2) Murray lost a couple to Bird the year he was battling the bad back. I distinctly recall their QF match at Cinci (Murray had little interest in that match) and Murray had surgery soon after that US Open.

3) Birds win on a non indoor HC against Murray came in 2006 (before Murray was Murray).

Now you get a two time grand slam champ, with a chip on his shoulder (playing some of his best tennis in the past two years) against a guy who arguably had one of the biggest wins of his career (considering how many times he had lost to Rafa). The problem with Murray (when he is fine physically) is his head, otherwise he is a top 3 player (only behind Djoker and a healthy Nada). And his head seems to be screwed on right for this tournament.

Of course, Bird won in Cinci, but I'm throwing that win out because of Murray's back issues.

[jtoler]

Keys in great form that's why head gotten better too.

[thecutter]

Don't understand how anyone doesn't back madison keys here underdog or not. I've been sitting here for 2 days putting more and more money on her as her line has slipped from +130 to ...well whatever it is when you're reading this. Listen Venus is playing well as I mentioned on more than 1 occasion in this tourney. I backed her last match. But has anyone been listening to the way the ball is coming off keys racket? She is so locked in and ready to make her living now. Ok, maybe Venus plays similar but madison will have Venus throwing in the towel. even in desperation Venus won't be able to get to most of the balls because keys is stronger and the redirection on her shots is a thing of beauty. The only way Williams stands a chance is if keys beats herself, which is not likely with Davenport behind her. No Williams sister rematch this time around.

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Berdy is playing well, but Nadal would surely have lost to anyone in the top 25. He was completely useless.

As above, the h2h is more than a bit misleading. Away from clay, where Berdych has a big advantage, Murray had physical issues in both of Berdych's recent wins - needed back surgery soon after Cincy 2013, and the Bercy 2011 loss came after Murray had played and won three weeks in a row in Asia. He had to withdraw from Basel the week before, and then withdrew from the WTF afterwards.

[EaglesPhan36]

These are also matches on the back end of Slams where books make their money because everyone is trying to find an edge on close prices. Often these are the ones where totals or props provide better looks to make $

Lines played in this range are difficult to beat routinely in tennis. Books don't often make mistakes setting these. They set them for action and volume knowing that like this thread, there's going to be an argument bringing money to both sides.

Just re-read everything in this thread & you can sway back & forth.. Both men playing well. Both extremely motivated. Women, this would be why Keys went Super Coach for matches like this. Venus though, how many chancrscdoes she have left for another run like this? Where's your edge? I don't see a big enough one to jump on a side.

[beefcake]

Well said..Tons of props for the womens match..better value..Even the over looks enticing..Two big hitters..Maybe an over for aces..Might get a low one there.

[thecutter]

Venus though, how many chancrscdoes she have left for another run like this? Where's your edge? I don't see a big enough one to jump on a side.

From viewing your thread and reading your opinions throughout this forum I know that you know your stuff. That aside I just think that is a bad argument for a Venus Williams victory. How many chances she has left. She's had plenty of chances in the past and I know her health was a major issue but its unfortunate for her that her career is coming to an end and a younger, stronger American woman is here for a foreseeable future.

[thecutter]

My worst nightmare is steering someone in the wrong direction with their money but I've been selective and out of tonight's 4 matchups madison has the most value at her price does she not?

[Snowball]

Venus will be spitting nails tonight.

[thecutter]

Not sure if you're using the idiom In a classic sense or you mean she's gonna have a strong forehand?

[SirtySree]

Berdych hardly ever gets any credit for his wins and success and always bashed when he loses especially here.

One of the most underrated players going around considering how consistent he has been in the past 5 years, whereas most other players in the top 10 have been dipping in and out or out altogether apart from the big 3.

[Snowball]

Not sure if you're using the idiom In a classic sense or you mean she's gonna have a strong forehand?

she has been spitting nails.. no reason to be worried about her form, it's there.. which is
what i like.. like last year when I called it and she beat Serena. Other times I've faded her
when she looked buggy. My Venus meter is better than half.. so let's see.. and Madison Keys
well she's Metallica in 1987 but remember.. Jethro Tull won the Grammy.

[thecutter]

Lol. I was 1 y/o . Good luck peoples

[EmpireMaker]

I think that Keys should be the favorite, and I think she will win easily !!!

[EmpireMaker]

I'm not a Murray fan but he should handle BirdBrain

[jimmy007oc]

people hype on Keys. if she is going to win tonight, the line has to be around + 115 to + 120.

[Snowball]

Lol. I was 1 y/o . Good luck peoples

i remember it like it was last month.. and that is scary.

[gaebiskon]

Murray will win because he's a lesser choker than Bird.
Opened on pinny at 1.68 and now he's 1.73

[jtoler]

people hype on Keys. if she is going to win tonight, the line has to be around + 115 to + 120.

How does that make sense.

[EmpireMaker]

penetrating Keys hurt her quad

[Snowball]

unreal one bet i have is Venus in a won parlay on 5d main. if Keys retires I lose the parlay
must hedge immediately. i hate 5d rules. live not even offering a line now.
oh well - cant hedge anyway cuz if she retires the hedge wouldn't pay in live.

[jtoler]

Keys FTW omg she did it.

[EaglesPhan36]

Did what?