Nick Kyrgios v Andreas Seppi

Snowball · 01-24-15, 12:57 PM

Kyrgios won their only match to date, which was at last year's US Open,
although it was close: 6-4, 7-6, 6-4 and during a period where Seppi
was not at 100%. He retired from Metz shortly afterward.
There is an 11 year difference in age. Seppi has seen it all. There is no
style he hasn't encountered along the way in his career. He is in top form
and is coming off beating RF, Chardy, and Istomin in this AO. Kyrgios has
beaten DelBonis, Karlovic, and Jaziri.
The crowd will be behind the Australian, Kyrgios. It is unknown how the pressure
will be dealt with by Kyrgios, who has been known to be hasty and hotheaded
during matches whereas Seppi will be the calm collected plotter. I think Seppi
is in strong form to take this match and will be giving it massive effort to go deep
in the AO. He is almost 31. Kyrgios is almost 20.
The other side of the argument is that Kyrgios could make Seppi work too hard and
if he can stay away from errors and df's he has a strong chance to win. I have futures
on both as I believe on their best days either can beat most anyone but I put the actual
bet on Seppi today because of the experience edge and he just beat Federer.

GoBlue77 · 01-24-15, 01:50 PM

the line on berdych is inflated too much imo. i've seen the guy do what he's doing(hasn't lost a set yet) too often and then come out and lose, thats why he's the bird dik. i think he gets it done but it could be really close.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-24-15, 01:52 PM

If Krygrios serves well, he wins IMO. An honest assessment is that Seppi played pretty well, maybe as well as he can play against Roger and still needed an off night from Federer to truly win that match. Obviously well possible that Kyrgios as a youngster could have his ups and downs too, but Seppi also isn't likely to replicate some of what he did last match.

If Nick is serving at an A-level, then Seppi is pressured in every service game to match and his serve is still a weaker part of his game overall. Best chance for Seppi is to be able to get the serves back in play and force Kyrgios into rallies where he can construct points and force errors.

waste1 · 01-24-15, 01:54 PM

hard game to bet. i would wait watch the game a few minutes and then place a bet. i think seppi is the more clever player whereas kyrgios is still a kid and if he doesnt start well it could get mental for him.

btw. seppi played the best match of his career imo against fedex. hitting every ball left and right. form should be fine.

if i think about it i would lean towards seppi

AboutThatLife · 01-24-15, 02:03 PM

If you've seen the level of cool exhibited by this kid - I expect him to serve well - I'll set my plate for the first set going o9.5 games and I'll be watching the first set to make a decision.

There is money to be made tonight and I'll do it with the women - Berydch/Murray parlay seems almost automatic but I'm staying away from birdshit and I'll parlay Murray with Halep - Nadal ML paired with Murray is safer

Bouchard 2-0

Sharapova u19 games lol at Peng doing the bullshit she has done to get here (2x)

I expect Makarova to win haven't factored how I'll play her in if at all

Personally don't see Seppi winning this match and its not 50/50 if Kyrgios is healthy

Snowball · 01-24-15, 02:12 PM

my bet on Seppi is light one unit style.. since there's no way i can watch this match
or react live. I'm just not as bullish on Kyrgios being a 'beast' as most are.

frugalgambler · 01-24-15, 05:46 PM

Players coming off a major upset win tend to bomb in the next round; Seppi is usually mentally weak too. Kyrgios or no play. That dude looks like he will relish the crowd support and added pressure.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-24-15, 06:15 PM

I usually like that fade structure on marquee wins, but I think it's tempered a lot when you're talking about a tour vet who isn't going to be star struck by one win and you also take into account I think the way in which the match was won. If Seppi had to go 5 and pulled it back after blowing a 2-0 lead, I think he'd be much more likely to be flat today. He was in control of that match for the most part with Roger, so his emotions were not as high as they might have been in a different outcome.

I still like Kyrgios to win, but his back still worries me a bit too much to back him. He keeps saying how it tightens up at different times during matches, so he has to get treatment like he did against Jaziri. That's what would worry me this match because Seppi will make him work if they get into rallies.

frugalgambler · 01-24-15, 07:03 PM

Seppi is a vet bed-sh.tter. His last match was probably the only match of his career in which he did not crumble on a big stage. What are the chances he will repeat that performance ? But yeah, the youngster's injury is a bit of a concern.

PS That was Seppi's first ever win over a top-10 player in a Grand Slam. He has been on a tour for like 15 years. Seriously ?

PPS I am not going big on Kyrgious. But I think anybody trusting Seppi to beat anybody who is better than the likes of Sela, i.e. pretty much anybody, is not going to make a profit in the long run.

lucasdawg · 01-24-15, 07:08 PM

cheers guys, some similar perspectives. might still take a small parlay.

AboutThatLife · 01-24-15, 07:24 PM

I'm playing name the score with bouchard match betting .25 units for Bouchard to keep breaking

AboutThatLife · 01-24-15, 07:31 PM

I've played name the score with some of my opponents before its a fun game to play even had a few golden sets in my career.

SCI · 01-24-15, 08:03 PM

The thing I don't like about backing Kyrgios tonight is the fact that Seppi has played Istomin, Chardy and Federer. These guys are near vet versions of Kyrgios IMO.

Kyrgios will have the crowd, but so did Fed in a big way.

This is a tough match to predict IMO, but I lean Seppi.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-24-15, 10:37 PM

I wouldn't put Istomin or Chardy anywhere near Kyrgios. His serve is miles above both of theirs when he is fully fit. Think his groundies are at-worst, equal to theirs but maybe better already.

SCI · 01-24-15, 11:02 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I wouldn't put Istomin or Chardy anywhere near Kyrgios. His serve is miles above both of theirs when he is fully fit. Think his groundies are at-worst, equal to theirs but maybe better already.

They all play a similiar style. Chardy smoked Seppi last year. Kyrgios will need to serve well, just like if Istomin served well, he probably would of beaten Seppi and for sure Fed and Chardy like last year.

SCI · 01-24-15, 11:13 PM

Seppi made Chardy and Federer both uncomfortable bigtime with his play. Now he plays the kid with pressure in front of his home crowd at night where conditions will be much slower than that of New York. Should be a fun match.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-25-15, 01:12 AM

Originally posted by SCI

They all play a similiar style. Chardy smoked Seppi last year. Kyrgios will need to serve well, just like if Istomin served well, he probably would of beaten Seppi and for sure Fed and Chardy like last year.

Just because they play a similar style doesn't mean they should be lumped together. Chardy and Istomin are not very consistent from set to set. They show flashes of their best, Kyrgios shows it more consistently. His serve is borderline Raonic-Isner-Karlovic status more often than not. Chardy and Istomin lack that weapon to any level like that. Certainly his back can bring him down to a less consistent serve, but we'll see.

I just think every match is different and Kyrgios brings more electricity to the court than Chardy or Istomin do. It's the power I think he has more in his shots than those two.

SCI · 01-25-15, 03:07 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Just because they play a similar style doesn't mean they should be lumped together. Chardy and Istomin are not very consistent from set to set. They show flashes of their best, Kyrgios shows it more consistently. His serve is borderline Raonic-Isner-Karlovic status more often than not. Chardy and Istomin lack that weapon to any level like that. Certainly his back can bring him down to a less consistent serve, but we'll see.

I just think every match is different and Kyrgios brings more electricity to the court than Chardy or Istomin do. It's the power I think he has more in his shots than those two.

I'm talking about if they all serve well against Seppi, they win, if not, they probably lose.

SCI · 01-25-15, 03:09 AM

Kygrios reminds me more of a Tomic on serve, then a Raonic or Isner.

SCI · 01-25-15, 03:13 AM

Yeah, Kygrios reminds me of a Tomic, Gulbis or Istomin on serve more than a Raonic, Isner or Ivo. His placement seems better than the former though.

domz248 · 01-25-15, 03:15 AM

Lol he's done lol throwing his racket like a girl

Lazy-Man · 01-25-15, 03:16 AM

This kid is Lil biotxh. Wish I knew before I put money on him. Jeez grow up

SCI · 01-25-15, 03:17 AM

He's only 19 man.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-25-15, 03:17 AM

Originally posted by SCI

I'm talking about if they all serve well against Seppi, they win, if not, they probably lose.

Well that would be about every player, if they serve well against someone they would win. Kyrgios looked like ass in the 1st set. Not sure if it's the back or jitters or what. But he's playing poorly.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-25-15, 03:20 AM

Seppi deserves credit though, he's playing well and serving well too.

SCI · 01-25-15, 03:23 AM

Kyrgios reminds me alot of Gulbis actually. I wonder if Kyrgios will keep his head and reach his potential that Gulbis seems to not care about.

SCI · 01-25-15, 03:26 AM

I didn't bet this match, too much to think about. I did say I leaned Seppi, but stayed away. Love Murray later though.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-25-15, 03:28 AM

Attitude-wise, he is a spot-on young Andy Murray. Talking and yelling at himself. I love that personally.

Lazy-Man · 01-25-15, 03:51 AM

Biggest joke ever. This kid...

SirtySree · 01-25-15, 03:57 AM

Seppi is playing so insane right now. Reminds me of the run Cilic did to win the US Open. Long way to go for Seppi but the way he is playing, it is going to be hard for anyone to take him down if he keeps playing like this.

SCI · 01-25-15, 03:58 AM

Seppi is playing too solid again. Impressive run for Seppi.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-25-15, 04:00 AM

Originally posted by SirtySree

Seppi is playing so insane right now. Reminds me of the run Cilic did to win the US Open. Long way to go for Seppi but the way he is playing, it is going to be hard for anyone to take him down if he keeps playing like this.

He's playing well, but Kyrgios is playing like a teenager. Poor tactics and rushed play. Seppi just has to be steady against someone playing like this. Put the ball back in play and let the kid kill himself.

I think Seppi's weaknesses would come out against someone like Murray, but who knows - maybe it is just magic time.

SCI · 01-25-15, 04:01 AM

Originally posted by SirtySree

Seppi is playing so insane right now. Reminds me of the run Cilic did to win the US Open. Long way to go for Seppi but the way he is playing, it is going to be hard for anyone to take him down if he keeps playing like this.

Seppi will get beat by Murray. Murray is a much better version of Seppi.

SirtySree · 01-25-15, 04:03 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

He's playing well, but Kyrgios is playing like a teenager. Poor tactics and rushed play. Seppi just has to be steady against someone playing like this. Put the ball back in play and let the kid kill himself.

I think Seppi's weaknesses would come out against someone like Murray, but who knows - maybe it is just magic time.

Seppi is doing what he did to Federer to Kyrgios. Every time you think they hit a winner, Seppi makes some insane return/passing shot.

Don't see what Kyrgios is doing wrong personally but I have never been a fan of his regardless though.