Sup gents... Figured I'd start putting my mouth where my money is and start a thread. I've been playing tennis since I was 4 years old, worked as a pro for 10 years and was recruited to play in college but directed my "talents" towards bball. What does that mean in terms of gambling....? Nothing other than I know a thing or two about the sport and its players.
The Aussie is certainly one of the tougher GS's to cap. First one of the year and you sort of wonder who's who after a lot of players were unwinding in the closing months of 2014. Many can succumb to drastic changes in climate, time zone, etc when they come to Australia to play after sitting in their home countries/states for some time.
I made a few wagers in the early stages but nothing worth noting. A couple wins and a let down by Rosol last night cost me a little. I'm sitting plus money, but we're talking an insignificant amount, so let's dive in with my plays today...
My first play for tonight is Paolo Lorenzi +375 for 1 unit (100$). Yes, he's old(er), but the 64th ranked 180lb right hander from Italy can play, and he's playing some of his better tennis through 2014 and now into 2015 with a very nice and surprising straight set win over Dolgopolov. Yes, Pospisil is the younger player, but Lorenzi is quick and agile for his age and I see a good matchup here. I like riding Lorenzi's confidence into this match, especially after Vasek had to grind it out against Sam Querrey in the first round. It's a long shot, but there is a ton of value in that line here...
Second play is Jerzy Janowicz +192 for 1 unit (100$). Simply put, Monfils is a scatterbrain, much likely to be a little more out of shape early in the tennis year, as you see him typically surge late. I just don't see him going deep in this tournament. He pulled a typical Monfils in round 1....waking up after dropping the first 2 sets and playing better tennis. If he gets down early against a young Janowicz, he'll be toast.
Last posted play for today is Jarkko Neimenin -142 for 1 unit (142$ to win 100). Neimenin is playing some solid tennis to start the new year and I think he surges past the second round at the Aussie for the first time in 2015. I find Matthias Bachinger to be an inferior opponent and the lefty (Niemenin) is going to give this right handed German some trouble on serve. I find a lot of value in that line sitting below 150. Both players will be fresh after playing relatively short matches in round 1. Bach has the age advantage but Neimenin can easily overpower him.
Was also eyeing Marcel Granollers at plus money but Gilles is really tough. Not sure if I'll play it or not. Feel free to comment on the above. I know some may seem like a shot in the dark but in the first GS of the year, rankings can typically mean very little. Upsets can and will absolutely happen, especially as we weed out the first couple rounds. Now's the time to take some shots and see what happens.
Input on other plays is greatly appreciated!
BOL to all on your plays.
The Aussie is certainly one of the tougher GS's to cap. First one of the year and you sort of wonder who's who after a lot of players were unwinding in the closing months of 2014. Many can succumb to drastic changes in climate, time zone, etc when they come to Australia to play after sitting in their home countries/states for some time.
I made a few wagers in the early stages but nothing worth noting. A couple wins and a let down by Rosol last night cost me a little. I'm sitting plus money, but we're talking an insignificant amount, so let's dive in with my plays today...
My first play for tonight is Paolo Lorenzi +375 for 1 unit (100$). Yes, he's old(er), but the 64th ranked 180lb right hander from Italy can play, and he's playing some of his better tennis through 2014 and now into 2015 with a very nice and surprising straight set win over Dolgopolov. Yes, Pospisil is the younger player, but Lorenzi is quick and agile for his age and I see a good matchup here. I like riding Lorenzi's confidence into this match, especially after Vasek had to grind it out against Sam Querrey in the first round. It's a long shot, but there is a ton of value in that line here...
Second play is Jerzy Janowicz +192 for 1 unit (100$). Simply put, Monfils is a scatterbrain, much likely to be a little more out of shape early in the tennis year, as you see him typically surge late. I just don't see him going deep in this tournament. He pulled a typical Monfils in round 1....waking up after dropping the first 2 sets and playing better tennis. If he gets down early against a young Janowicz, he'll be toast.
Last posted play for today is Jarkko Neimenin -142 for 1 unit (142$ to win 100). Neimenin is playing some solid tennis to start the new year and I think he surges past the second round at the Aussie for the first time in 2015. I find Matthias Bachinger to be an inferior opponent and the lefty (Niemenin) is going to give this right handed German some trouble on serve. I find a lot of value in that line sitting below 150. Both players will be fresh after playing relatively short matches in round 1. Bach has the age advantage but Neimenin can easily overpower him.
Was also eyeing Marcel Granollers at plus money but Gilles is really tough. Not sure if I'll play it or not. Feel free to comment on the above. I know some may seem like a shot in the dark but in the first GS of the year, rankings can typically mean very little. Upsets can and will absolutely happen, especially as we weed out the first couple rounds. Now's the time to take some shots and see what happens.
Input on other plays is greatly appreciated!
BOL to all on your plays.
