Stevie J looked good!
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Comment -
tough 3rd set TB loss with Jerzy.
woulda been nice with those parlays.
pretty firm on these below.
Tally +2.28
Haase, Murray .2/.18
Cornet, Keys, Azarenka .65/.55Comment -
monfils, jerzy, fognini...if they're faves you can bet against them or pass...if they're dogs you can bet on them or pass..period
as far as ML (including as legs in a parlay)...Forget them if they're Favorites...cuz their priorities, agendas, and motivations are far too complex for mere non-fabulously-wealthy mortals like us to understand...and makes them far too prone to self-sabotage (cuz they just don't give a fukk that day...or don't mind blowing several tens of thousands to give vent to a pouting or temper tantrum...etc. etc...)...to in any way be "relied" on...
statistically their "ability" to perform has a mean well above the average...but the "variance" of that ability about its mean make them damn-near unbettable as favorites...neither their ranking, nor their recent form, nor their h2h against this opponent mean near as much as it would mean for the vast majority of normal-variance/emotionally-stable players on the tour
"which version of the player shows up" is the central variance issue...and with Monfils, Fognini and Jerzy...the distribution is far wider than with normal players...with a non-flake you know generally what you're getting, but with one of these parlay-breaking headcases you don't...Comment -
yeah, i know Jerzy is one of "those" types, and I'm done cutting him any slack.. it's a process.
i wouldn't have put him in on clay vs Schwartzman, but Schwartzman is not a player i fear
much. anyway, as long as my plays continue their forward profit, i'm not complaining.
Gonzalez (Santiago) .3/.2Comment -
Murray, DelBonis +4.5, GGL .11/.29Comment -
Got to say now there's a score that couldn't have been predicted. Gonzalez couldn't do anything to Clezar.
I know Clezar has been upticking but this was a semifinal.. you'd expect something more competitive.
See what happens with these. Can't win if you don't play...
Tally +1.98
Haase, Murray .2/.18
Cornet, Keys, Azarenka .65/.55
Murray, DelBonis +4.5, GGL .11/.29
Putintseva vs. Ivanovic Over 18.5 .4/.38Comment -
Have to like Murray's chances. I think his recent losses look better in retrospect. That said, I'm not sure besting Isner is much of an accomplishment lately either.Comment -
Murray, Gasquet, Seppi .55/.48Comment -
dash of more GGL .29/.2Comment -
GGL up a break in each set to Kok and he coughs it up on serve both times.
this would be a fairly embarassing loss for him, IMO.Comment -
sucks i use 5 dimes. would have hedged out on GGL.
5dimes is shit without the live plus.
Bouchard, Cornet .6/.48 two FRENCH women.Comment -
GGL hurt me today. big swing there.
Kokkinakis has improved a lot since last year.
Still has kinks in his game, but GGL did not bring his "a" game.
DelBonis did his part, that guy is reliable.
And Putintseva, well, she still is developing at 20.
Ivanovic has improved a lot since her start of this tournament.
Would be nice if Genie is ready for this. Hradecka isn't a mobile
player, Genie should be able to exploit that. But she's going to
need to at least get her darn serve in the box. Oh, and stop thinking
about dating Justin Beiber for a while.
Tally +1.91
Murray, Gasquet, Seppi .55/.48
Bouchard, Cornet .6/.48Comment -
Tally +2.39
Murray, Gasquet, Seppi .55/.48
Dimitrov, Wawrinka, Nadal, S. Williams .4/.31
Dimitrov, Radwanska, Halep, Bouchard .37/.55
Clezar, Bryans, Pennetta .17/.45
Bryans, Murray, Cornet .17/.25Last edited by Snowball; 03-15-15, 08:29 AM.Comment -
Dimitrov .69/.3Comment -
Gasquet retire 1-1 scratch him out of parlay. Will grade that parlay
as no play, not a win without him. Books do different things.
Clezar lost. Just when you think he's getting past the unreliability,
he's unreliable. Radwanska, leave her along a long time or fade..
I didn't see match but heard she made a ton of unforced errors.
That's the only way Watson could have beaten her anyway.
Tally +2.15
Dimitrov, Wawrinka, Nadal, S. Williams .4/.31
Bryans, Murray, Cornet .17/.25
Halep, Pennetta .17/.17
Langer .1/.16
Elistratov .1/.14
Ivanov .1/.12
Betov .14/.1Comment -
Glad I passed on Gascan would've been a loss for me.Comment -
can never tell who will retire unless there is a recent injury. 5dimes and GTBets are 1-set rule
no matter who wins that set, it's advancer, that is a terrible in-house rule not shared by the
majority of books. Anyway it wouldn't have been fair to grade him as a cancel and count the bet
either. btw, I just took it on the chin with Stan. Just like Radwanska. Something about these courts
is certainly not bringing out the best in some players and it's not easy to predict. That is why I'm
staying away from Johnson vs Ivo for instance.
I'm going to just focus on a few players this Indian Wells who are
proving they like the court and just them. No others. There are a couple new
challenger tournaments indoor so it's not like action dissapears.Comment -
There are three players who have cost my tally a lot.. Tally would be around 4 right now
if it wasn't for GGL, Radwanska, and Wawrinka.
Cornet - like the way she fought back and won last match, having some probs with her
first serve but is likely to get over it.
Pennetta - will be rested and likes this surface, see her causing problems for Stosur.
ElMihdawy superior in the Drummondville qualie. Bouchard court plays to her game
and if her serve is even fair should have no probs vs less mobile Coco.
Mannarino seems to be in decent form, while Gulbis may not be. Adrian's speed
could be a problem for the less athletic Gulbis.
Tally +1.79
Bryans, Murray, Cornet .17/.25
Halep, Pennetta .17/.17
El Mihdawy, Bouchard .3/.2
Mannarino .34/.36Last edited by Snowball; 03-16-15, 08:24 AM.Comment -
Not worried about Murray? He had a few emotional lapses (foot fault) during that first match but otherwise rolled.Comment -
Agreed. Philip is an interesting adversary.Comment -
Bouchard .4/.1Comment -
Nishikori 2-0 .1/.11Comment -
Murray .4/.1Comment -
Tally +2.28
Halep, Pennetta .17/.17
Jankovic +4 .11/.1Comment -
Keys 2-0 .07 @ +149Comment -
correction that was +139 so it's .07 to win .1
maybe catch a middle i'm thinking.Comment -
Tally +2.31
Halep, Pennetta .17/.17
Pennetta, Sharapova .12/.18
Fucsovics, Millman, Kravchuk, Kan .08/.11Comment -
Millman got upset. He hasn't been himself for a while.
Tally +2.56
Hingis/Mirza, Bouchard .35/.24
Watson +4.5 .12/.1
Pennetta +5.5 .12/.1Comment -
adding Struvay in Drummondville. He's not so bad a player that he should be
+175 vs Fritz Wolmarans. Struvay hasn't played in a month. I like that because
he was slumping and if he's been practicing on hard he can pin the corners and
make Wolmarans run, something he's horrible at. Wolmarans (and Guccione)
both lost to this 14 year old phenom, who had to drop out for an abdominal strain.
So Wolmarans is the lucky loser but I like Struvay's chances to beat him especially
if he watches this tape.
Struvay .06/.11Comment -
Good luck. I like watson.Comment -
Going to add small Watson ML, she has a chance. .04/.1Comment -
Watson looking pretty good. S-N just had her foot worked on, and appears to be having some trouble with it. JINXComment
