8-14 Plays

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  • SSVIR
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 07-07-14
    • 861

    #1
    8-14 Plays
    Let's get some conversation rolling ....


    11:00am Lucie Safarova +240 v Simona Halep -280
    11:00am Lucie Safarova +4 Games -117

    The H2H is 2-1 in favor of Halep (both of which went 3 sets) and the Safarova win was an easy straight set match (back in 2011 so not all that relevant). Safarova has been playing well with a 7-4 6-4 loss in Montreal to Serena and so far this week has beaten Venus and smoked Diyas. Halep is playing only her 2nd match on the hard courts and struggled mightily against Flipkens. I'm just not sold on Halep being able to use her defensive oriented game on hard courts. Her serve is pretty weak and her groundstrokes weren't very impressive in her last match.
    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    11:00am Jerzy Janowicz -115 v Julien Benneteau -110

    Jerzy leads the H2H 3-0 which is impressive considering how sketchy his performances can be. He played really well today against Dimitrov and if he plays well again this will be a straight set match. I'm sure I will regret this but ultimately I'm taking the head case with the big serve/forehand over the French guy.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2:30pm Tommy Robredo +5 Games -120 v Novak Djokovic -5 -110

    Robredo is playing really well and Joker is not.... hopefully Joker sleep walks through one more match. Joker leads the H2H 6-1 but they are all beyond 5 years other than a 6-3 7-5 win by Joker in Key Biscayne this year.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    11:00am Marin Cilic +120 v Stanislas Wawrinka -140

    No lines up yet. Wawrinka owns the H2H 6-2 but I don't think he is playing all that well thus far on hard courts while Marin is playing well and showing some grit winning two TBs against Verdasco. I like Marin in the matchup pending odds.

    UPDATE: Odds were updated.

    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    7:00pm Agnieszka Radwanska -310 v Sabine Lisicki +255

    No lines up yet. Radwanska is rolling bitches the last two + weeks and while Lisicki has the power game to give her some trouble Lisicki is too inconsistent to win two sets. They played last week to a Radwanska 6-1 3-6 6-3 win. I like Radwanksa pending odds.

    UPDATE: Odds are updated and very chalky.

    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    9:00pm Caroline Wozniack -150 v Angelique Kerber +130

    Pretty evenly matched players but gut tells me Wozniacki pulls this one out. She's playing great and while Kerber is as well I think Kerber has had a number of physcially taxing matches in the hard court season so far whereas Woz has won a lot of hard court matches recently but typically making quick work of her opponent.
    -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  • SSVIR
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 07-07-14
    • 861

    #2
    11:00am 529 Lucie Safarova +240* vs Simona Halep 2.5 to win 6
    11:00am 531 L.Safarova +4 Games -117* vs S.Halep to win 2.5
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    11:00am 114 Jerzy Janowicz -115* vs Julien Benneteau to win 2.5
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    11:00am 110 Marin Cilic +120* vs Stanislas Wawrinka to win 2.5 units
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2:30pm 104 T. Robredo +5 Games -125* vs N. Djokovic to win 2.5 units
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1:00pm 531 Carla Suarez Navarro -134* vs Elina Svitolina 5 units to win 3.75
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    1:00pm 137 Andy Murray -225* vs John Isner 10 units to win 4.44 units
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2:30pm 125 Milos Raonic -395* vs Steve Johnson 20 units to win 5 (stupid)
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Live Bet RAONIC, M to win 2nd Set -285 vs. JOHNSON, S to win 2.5 units
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    3:00pm 507 Sloane Stephens +125* vs Jelena Jankovic 2.5 to win 3.2
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    7:00pm G MONFILS +1.5 sets -125 vrs R FEDERER to win 2 units
    7:00pm 143 Gael Monfils +210* vs Roger Federer 1.5 to win 3.15 Units
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    7:00pm 107 Mikhail Youzhny +150* vs David Ferrer 2.5 to win 3.75 units
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    7:00pm 513 Agnieszka Radwanska -300* vs S Lisicki 4.5 to win 1.5 units
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Comment
    • brodie
      SBR MVP
      • 11-25-13
      • 2212

      #3
      i think djokovic will cover -5 games
      Comment
      • pattymayo
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 05-19-09
        • 10221

        #4
        Halep is a beast on this surface

        I'm not sure you realize how good she is
        Comment
        • SSVIR
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 07-07-14
          • 861

          #5
          Originally posted by brodie
          i think djokovic will cover -5 games
          Any particular reason(s)? He has looked out of sorts thus far in Toronto and Cincy.
          Comment
          • SSVIR
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 07-07-14
            • 861

            #6
            Originally posted by pattymayo
            Halep is a beast on this surface

            I'm not sure you realize how good she is
            Probably correct b/c my sample size of watching her is admittedly small and she was not impressive.

            Weak serve and when a short ball was played she was content to hit it back into the middle of the court and move back to the baseline rather than play an aggressive/deep shot.

            Poor mans Wozniacki in my eyes that had two good Slam tournaments in the same year.
            Comment
            • pattymayo
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 05-19-09
              • 10221

              #7
              Poor mans wozniacki?? Sheesh you need to watch her play more

              Look what she's been doing lately

              Comment
              • SSVIR
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 07-07-14
                • 861

                #8
                Originally posted by pattymayo
                Poor mans wozniacki?? Sheesh you need to watch her play more

                Look what she's been doing lately

                http://www.tennisabstract.com/cgi-bi...?p=SimonaHalep
                Its not a slight being a poor man's Wozniacki.

                Wozniacki has had a good 5+ years:

                2009 - First Top 5 season (finishing No.4); won three WTA titles
                2010 - First No.1 season, highlighted by WTA-leading six titles and 62 match wins
                2011 - Second No.1 season, highlighted by WTA-leading 63 match wins; won 6 WTA titles
                2012 - Another Top 10 season (finishing No.10); No titles
                2013 - Fifth straight Top 10 season (finishing No.10); won one WTA title
                2014 - Currently ranked 12th

                Halep has had a good year and a half:

                2013 - Breakthrough near-Top 10 season (finishing No.11)
                2014 - Currently ranked 2nd

                I would also comment that if you look at that match record there aren't many wins against top 10 players in that list.
                Comment
                • brodie
                  SBR MVP
                  • 11-25-13
                  • 2212

                  #9
                  Originally posted by SSVIR
                  Any particular reason(s)?
                  because everyone thinks he won't, and he's more than capable
                  Comment
                  • matt1216
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 10-27-11
                    • 14683

                    #10
                    Originally posted by pattymayo
                    Halep is a beast on this surface

                    I'm not sure you realize how good she is
                    Lucie looked like shit in set one vs a tired Venus as well. She barely closed out the match.... Halep has twice the speed with about 3/4 the power of Venus.
                    Comment
                    • Hardcoar
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 02-17-13
                      • 15606

                      #11
                      Originally posted by pattymayo
                      Halep is a beast on this surface

                      I'm not sure you realize how good she is
                      It's already apparent he does not. +240 is a great bet though.
                      Comment
                      • SSVIR
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 07-07-14
                        • 861

                        #12
                        Odds updated in the OP and a couple plays added to the 2nd post.
                        Comment
                        • SSVIR
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 07-07-14
                          • 861

                          #13
                          Safarova is an unforced error machine. Even the commentators are stating she looks tired/lazy and that Halep is like hitting against a wall. Disappointing that she's giving me the Tsonga treatment. Hopefully she turns shit around like against Venus.

                          Cilic wins the first set looking great then proceeds to get broken 3 times in the 2nd set and lose 6-0.

                          Jerzy plays an even set and then has a service game lapse at 5-6 and gets broken. Bennetau wins 6 points in the first 5 service games then breaks on his first and only BP of the set. Not sure why I expected anything else from Jerzy. Need the Frenchman to realize he's French ASAP.
                          Comment
                          • SSVIR
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 07-07-14
                            • 861

                            #14
                            Either Cilic forgot how to play tennis or Stan is rolling. 4 of last 5 Cilic service games = broken.

                            Jerzy is a turd. Broken already. No confidence is his backhand and already mentally checking out. Broken twice. Mental midget.

                            These ladies are getting broken at love left and right. Gotta love the WTA.

                            Dammit mane.
                            Comment
                            • Dollars2Donuts
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 02-07-13
                              • 8803

                              #15
                              Jerzy is a POS. I bet him as well today....benneteau is my nemesis....oh, along with Paire.
                              Comment
                              • SSVIR
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 07-07-14
                                • 861

                                #16
                                Cilic has lost 11 of the last 12 games.

                                He has gone from 2:1 winners to unforced errors in the 1st set to 2 unforced errors to each winner in the match as a whole.

                                Broken once again. Up 40-15 and misses 4 consecutive 1st serves and made 4 consecutive unforced errors.
                                Comment
                                • SSVIR
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 07-07-14
                                  • 861

                                  #17
                                  Safarova finishes off her match against Halep losing 3 straight games making 10 unforced errors in those games. Nicely done by the mope. Halep wins but in unimpressive fashion.
                                  Comment
                                  • FoxMulder
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 05-02-13
                                    • 1139

                                    #18
                                    I watched Halep vs Flipkens 2 days ago. Flipkens' mini comeback in the first set made me think twice regarding Halep's vulnerability vs aggressive players but since we're talking about Safarova the UE queen, decided to stay away from this one. Halep line was too low for my taste. I think a lot of people were fooled (no offence) by Safarova's win vs Williams,Williams just destroyed herself.She has outdone herself last week already.

                                    Same goes for Janowicz and Cilic.
                                    Comment
                                    • Tmuston Beltics
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-14-13
                                      • 1253

                                      #19
                                      Cilic... WTAesque meltdown nice.. 6-3 0-6 1-6
                                      Comment
                                      • SSVIR
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 07-07-14
                                        • 861

                                        #20
                                        Cilic apparently hurt his arm at the end of the first set. Should have just retired rather than proceeding to lose the next two sets 6-0 6-1.
                                        Comment
                                        • hendrafirmanto
                                          SBR Hustler
                                          • 04-09-14
                                          • 81

                                          #21
                                          cilic still has double match, fade him
                                          Comment
                                          • SSVIR
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 07-07-14
                                            • 861

                                            #22
                                            Added these two lookers.

                                            Was on fire yesterday and 0-3 today (two were dogs) so probably should be faded at this point.

                                            Svitolina playing excellent but beating up on mopes.

                                            Isner has been shaky so hoping the Murray return gets him a break per set.




                                            Comment
                                            • SSVIR
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 07-07-14
                                              • 861

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by hendrafirmanto
                                              cilic still has double match, fade him
                                              Good thought.

                                              Not sure what the odds were earlier but he's not a +175 (-245 for opponents) in the doubles.

                                              He'll probably pull out but that's pretty chalky even for me.
                                              Comment
                                              • Hardcoar
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 02-17-13
                                                • 15606

                                                #24
                                                Doubles up to @3 already on the market!
                                                Comment
                                                • Hardcoar
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 02-17-13
                                                  • 15606

                                                  #25
                                                  Also, damn you have been having some Mattesque luck lately.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • SSVIR
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 07-07-14
                                                    • 861

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by Hardcoar
                                                    Also, damn you have been having some Mattesque luck lately.
                                                    More winning than losing but definitely running very hot one day and very cold the next.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • SSVIR
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 07-07-14
                                                      • 861

                                                      #27
                                                      Suarez-Navarro is flaming turd. Loses in 3 sets .... again.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • SSVIR
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 07-07-14
                                                        • 861

                                                        #28
                                                        Murray is a British bitch as usual.

                                                        UPDATE: Murray is my negro. Just kidding. He still is a choking \*\*\*\*\*\* but was out-choked by Isner thank god.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • FoxMulder
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 05-02-13
                                                          • 1139

                                                          #29
                                                          Upside is you haven't jinxed Murray...yet
                                                          Comment
                                                          • pattymayo
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 05-19-09
                                                            • 10221

                                                            #30
                                                            You better not mush Sloane today

                                                            this guy is turning into the new Matt
                                                            Comment
                                                            • SSVIR
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 07-07-14
                                                              • 861

                                                              #31
                                                              Originally posted by pattymayo
                                                              You better not mush Sloane today

                                                              this guy is turning into the new Matt
                                                              When I'm down 40 units instead of up 40 units go ahead and mock my picks.

                                                              Typical WTA match were they can't hold f'n serve.

                                                              Maybe you mushed my pick with yours ... but we'll never know since you don't post any picks and just act like an ass.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • FoxMulder
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 05-02-13
                                                                • 1139

                                                                #32
                                                                This is betting mate, no matter how much research you do , it's 50% luck 50% intuition. I had a terrible day yesterday..today, I'm 6-1 so far.. You just had a bad day. Tomorrow you'll get back on track.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • SSVIR
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 07-07-14
                                                                  • 861

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by FoxMulder
                                                                  This is betting mate, no matter how much research you do , it's 50% luck 50% intuition. I had a terrible day yesterday..today, I'm 6-1 so far.. You just had a bad day. Tomorrow you'll get back on track.
                                                                  Thanks man. I'm not sweating it at all. PattyCakes always come into all the threads to be a dick so I will simply ignore him from now on. Great day for you so far. GL
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • SSVIR
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 07-07-14
                                                                    • 861

                                                                    #34
                                                                    11:00am 529 Lucie Safarova +240* vs Simona Halep 2.5 to win 6
                                                                    11:00am 531 L.Safarova +4 Games -117* vs S.Halep to win 2.5
                                                                    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    11:00am 114 Jerzy Janowicz -115* vs Julien Benneteau to win 2.5
                                                                    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    11:00am 110 Marin Cilic +120* vs Stanislas Wawrinka to win 2.5 units
                                                                    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    2:30pm 104 T. Robredo +5 Games -125* vs N. Djokovic to win 2.5 units
                                                                    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    1:00pm 531 Carla Suarez Navarro -134* vs Elina Svitolina 5 units to win 3.75
                                                                    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    1:00pm 137 Andy Murray -225* vs John Isner 10 units to win 4.44 units
                                                                    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    2:30pm 125 Milos Raonic -395* vs Steve Johnson 20 units to win 5 (stupid)
                                                                    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Live Bet RAONIC, M to win 2nd Set -285 vs. JOHNSON, S to win 2.5 units
                                                                    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    3:00pm 507 Sloane Stephens +125* vs Jelena Jankovic 2.5 to win 3.2
                                                                    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    7:00pm G MONFILS +1.5 sets -125 vrs R FEDERER to win 2 units
                                                                    7:00pm 143 Gael Monfils +210* vs Roger Federer 1.5 to win 3.15 Units
                                                                    Live Bet FEDERER, ROGER -294 to win 2nd set v G MONFILS 4.4 units to win 1.5
                                                                    Live Bet FEDERER, ROGER -179 v G MONFILS 4.3 units to win 2.5
                                                                    Live Bet FEDERER, ROGER -172 v G MONFILS 4.5 units to win 2.5

                                                                    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    7:00pm 107 Mikhail Youzhny +150* vs David Ferrer 2.5 to win 3.75 units
                                                                    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    7:00pm 513 Agnieszka Radwanska -300* vs S Lisicki 4.5 to win 1.5 units
                                                                    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    9:00pm 519 Caroline Wozniacki -155* vs Angelique Kerber to win 2.5 units
                                                                    9:00pm 521 C.Wozniacki Games Won -2 -120* vs A.Kerber Games Won

                                                                    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Bumdeal
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 12-17-13
                                                                      • 3954

                                                                      #35
                                                                      I don't get Patty. He was absolutely unrelenting on Matt and now he defends him like a pittbull. Stockholm syndrome?
                                                                      Comment
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