Wimbledon men round 1 discussion

**NguyenImproved** · 06-22-14, 12:13 PM

Looking forward to your thoughts on the Tsonga-Melzer match and the Young-Becker clash as well as a few other tasty tidbits first up.

**Betfrog** · 06-22-14, 12:24 PM

marinko +2,5 sets ??

**baconbets** · 06-22-14, 12:35 PM

tursunov +180 over istomin

**Brian891** · 06-22-14, 12:51 PM

thinking of using stakhovsky in parlays. u think he wins badger just might drop a set or would u avoid him? looking forward to your writeups. thanks a ton!

**zec** · 06-22-14, 12:57 PM

Originally posted by baconbets

tursunov +180 over istomin

Agree here, definitely some value, I was expecting even odds.

**RobRifle** · 06-22-14, 01:17 PM

I think Kravchuk will take a set from Simon so over should be fine.

**brodie** · 06-22-14, 01:36 PM

don't bet against istomin right now would be my advice... the guy is too consistent with his serve and on grass, to bet against him with old man tursunov would be risky although +180 is some really good value on him

**Honeybadger44** · 06-22-14, 01:46 PM

Dustin Brown-Marcos Baghdatis (+2 and u/o41.5)
We already had debate about this one on another thread. Dustin will get a lot of love, because of his performance in Halle, but I am going the other way here. Baghdatis worked hard to be in best shape for the Wimbledon. He "understands" the grass courts really well and I think he should prevail in this one. Brown is too big of a wild card. Initial lean: Baghdatis -2

Jeremy Chardy-Daniel Cox (-8 and u/o30.5)
Chardy definitely more familiar name to the majority of the casual bettors. But, is this high of a spread deserved? I think it's not. I believe that british players have maybe even the best home court adventages. Grass is pretty unique surface, which is not used that often, outside the GB. So, the british players should mostly have much more experiance, playing on it, then the players, coming from the other countries. Cox should also have a good crowd support. Initial lean: Cox +8

Andy Murray-David Goffin (-8.5 and u/o29)
Murray as a defending champion, is going to open action tommorow on the centre court. Murray had some problems lately, which indicated that he is not 100% fit. David Goffin definitely has the talent, but problems seems to be somewhere else. He usualy shows up on the big stage... Initial lean: Goffin +8.5

Andreas Seppi-Leonardo Mayer (-5 and u/o38)
I am struggling to understand this one. I think the line shouldn't be this high. Maybe it's not Mayer's favorite surface, but I don't see why his game couldn't work on this surface. Initial lean: Mayer +5

Jimmy Wang-Alejandro Gonzalez (-7 and u/o35)
To be honest, I haven't watched wang that much. But, watching Gonzalez play, he didn't seem like a typical clay courter. He has some good ball striking, which could keep him close here. Initial lean: over 35

Mikhail Youzhny-James Ward (-5.5 and u/o38)
Despite Youzhny obviously being superior player out of these two. I think that gap narrows down on grass courts. Ward has no problems moving on it. He has a short and effective swing, on his shots, which is perfect for grass. And also, Youzhny rarely maintains his game on the highest level, throughout entire match, in best of 5 match. Initial lean: over 38 games

**RobRifle** · 06-22-14, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by Honeybadger44

Dustin Brown-Marcos Baghdatis (+2 and u/o41.5)
We already had debate about this one on another thread. Dustin will get a lot of love, because of his performance in Halle, but I am going the other way here. Baghdatis worked hard to be in best shape for the Wimbledon. He "understands" the grass courts really well and I think he should prevail in this one. Brown is too big of a wild card. Initial lean: Baghdatis -2

Still Brown for me here

Jeremy Chardy-Daniel Cox (-8 and u/o30.5)
Chardy definitely more familiar name to the majority of the casual bettors. But, is this high of a spread deserved? I think it's not. I believe that british players have maybe even the best home court adventages. Grass is pretty unique surface, which is not used that often, outside the GB. So, the british players should mostly have much more experiance, playing on it, then the players, coming from the other countries. Cox should also have a good crowd support. Initial lean: Cox +8

Agree with Britsh players advantage of being grown up on grass courts but most of them really limited. Don't know Cox but if I had to I would probably also take the +8. Seems a little much

Andy Murray-David Goffin (-8.5 and u/o29)
Murray as a defending champion, is going to open action tommorow on the centre court. Murray had some problems lately, which indicated that he is not 100% fit. David Goffin definitely has the talent, but problems seems to be somewhere else. He usualy shows up on the big stage... Initial lean: Goffin +8.5

Agree here. Could see Murray starting slow. +8.5 looks like a solid bet

Andreas Seppi-Leonardo Mayer (-5 and u/o38)
I am struggling to understand this one. I think the line shouldn't be this high. Maybe it's not Mayer's favorite surface, but I don't see why his game couldn't work on this surface. Initial lean: Mayer +5

Seppi will take this one easily. Can't agree here. Seppi-5 fo me.

Jimmy Wang-Alejandro Gonzalez (-7 and u/o35)
To be honest, I haven't watched wang that much. But, watching Gonzalez play, he didn't seem like a typical clay courter. He has some good ball striking, which could keep him close here. Initial lean: over 35

THe old grass court legend Jimmy Wang

over the best bet. Don't see straight sets here

Mikhail Youzhny-James Ward (-5.5 and u/o38)
Despite Youzhny obviously being superior player out of these two. I think that gap narrows down on grass courts. Ward has no problems moving on it. He has a short and effective swing, on his shots, which is perfect for grass. And also, Youzhny rarely maintains his game on the highest level, throughout entire match, in best of 5 match. Initial lean: over 38 games

like the over as well. Could see a 5 setter.

Added my thoughts again

**Honeybadger44** · 06-22-14, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by NguyenImproved

Looking forward to your thoughts on the Tsonga-Melzer match and the Young-Becker clash as well as a few other tasty tidbits first up.

I am going step by step, so you will have to wait on those, bit longer. But I'll get there

Originally posted by Brian891

thinking of using stakhovsky in parlays. u think he wins badger just might drop a set or would u avoid him? looking forward to your writeups. thanks a ton!

Not big fan of the parlays with these short favorites. But, if you have to do it, Stak might not be a bad choice. Berlocq is a typical dirtballer and I don't see him stealing this one, only if Stakhovsky give it to him, with his errors. Which is also possible...

Originally posted by RobRifle

Added my thoughts again

Rob, thanks for your contribution in both threads!

**RobRifle** · 06-22-14, 02:24 PM

Originally posted by Honeybadger44

Rob, thanks for your contribution in both threads!

Big thanks to you. Really good work. Will you really do all 128 games?

**Honeybadger44** · 06-22-14, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by RobRifle

Big thanks to you. Really good work. Will you really do all 128 games?

That's the plan

Although, probably not all at once. First the ones, which are played on monday and tommorow in the evening, those which are scheduled for tuesday.

**Honeybadger44** · 06-22-14, 03:35 PM

Kevin Anderson-Aljaz Bedene (-6.5 and u/o33.5)
Hm, though one. Bedene is a mug, but his residence is in London for quite some time now, so he should not be that unfamiliar with the grass courts. Also, he is working on getting British citizenship, and good result in Wimbledon would definitely help. So, he should be extra motivated here. Solid serve, good ball striker.. Anderson, tall as he is, could have slight problems with movement, on fresh grass courts. Initial lean: over 33.5

Robin Haase-Vasek Pospisil (-1.5 and u/o41.5)
This seems like a tough one. Pospisil is in crisis, for quite some time now and he struggles to put an end to it. He had a lot of problems with injuries, but I expect him to get back on track soon. Haase is all-round player, but without traditional big weapons for the grass courts. Initial lean: Pospisil +1.5

Bernard Tomic-Evgeny Donskoy (-6 and u/o36.5)
Tomic was one of the biggest talents of the game, but at the moment, he is too big of a wild card, to be trusted with such short odds, like this. Donskoy is a bit streaky player, and could clip a set of Tomic, if he starts to feel it on his shots. Initial lean: over 36.5 games

Filipo Volandri-Edouard Roger Vaselin (+11 and u/o25)
Volandri is a joke. At this level, he isn't even competitive on clay courts, anymore. His only surface. Initial lean: Roger Vaselin -11

Marin Cilic-Paul Henri Mathieu (-6 and u/o38)
After doing so well in Queens club, in past several years, Cilic took an early exit 2 weeks ago. I am not that worried about it. He played well before that. Mathieu has a pretty similar style of play, only that he is at least level below Cilic. Line seems to be set just about right. Slight edge to Cilic. Initial lean: under 38 games.

Grigor Dimitrov-Ryan Harrison (-7 and u/o33.5)
It seems like Harrison is coming back to life, with these 3 wins in the qualies. He probably got some confidence back, but I think he is still not at the level, where he needs to be, to challange top guys like Dimitrov. Initial lean: under 33.5

Teymuraz Gabashvili-Tim Puetz (+3 and u/o40)
I have zero knowledge about Puetz's game. But considering, he is set as a favorite here, I guess he has good style for the grass courts. Gabashvili's second serve is his biggest wekness, which is even bigger liability on grass, where you cannot allow many breaks. Still, I like his fighting spirit and that he does not go down easily. Initial lean: Gabashvili +3

Steve Johnson-Roberto Bautista Agut (+4 and u/o 39.5)
As I wrote once in my thread, some people have entierly wrong perception about Bautista Agut. His slightly boring game, could lead you to believe he is one of those old school spanish tennis players, which can only play on clay. Well, he actualy can do very well on faster ones as well. He just proved that in Hertogenbosch, last week, where he took the title. He matches up really well against big hitters, which doesn't really have idea how to beat opponent, but simply wants to overpower it. Johnson fits pretty much perfectly in that description. Bautista can defend really well, getting those balls deep into the court. He can take the pace of the ball, when he wants to and he can counter punch. Not big value in these odds, but still... Initial lean: Bautista Agut -4

Luke Saville-Dominic Thiem (+4 and u/o 39.5)
Since I am not huge fan of challenger tour, I know nothing of Luke saville. He has adventage of already having 3 wins under his belt, from the qualies, whle Thiem doesn't have that much experiance on the grass. Either Thiem is going to get quickly familiar with the grass, and dominate with his talent. Or he will struggle to find his footing and timing on his shots. One way or another, it might fall under this line. Initial lean: under 39.5

**RobRifle** · 06-22-14, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by Honeybadger44

Kevin Anderson-Aljaz Bedene (-6.5 and u/o33.5)
Hm, though one. Bedene is a mug, but his residence is in London for quite some time now, so he should not be that unfamiliar with the grass courts. Also, he is working on getting British citizenship, and good result in Wimbledon would definitely help. So, he should be extra motivated here. Solid serve, good ball striker.. Anderson, tall as he is, could have slight problems with movement, on fresh grass courts. Initial lean: over 33.5

Over 33.5 basically means one set for bedene or two tie breaks. Do you really see that? Tough one for to predict for me

Robin Haase-Vasek Pospisil (-1.5 and u/o41.5)
This seems like a tough one. Pospisil is in crisis, for quite some time now and he struggles to put an end to it. He had a lot of problems with injuries, but I expect him to get back on track soon. Haase is all-round player, but without traditional big weapons for the grass courts. Initial lean: Pospisil +1.5

Coin flip here: Better form vs better fit on grass courts....really don't know, lean towards Haase

Bernard Tomic-Evgeny Donskoy (-6 and u/o36.5)
Tomic was one of the biggest talents of the game, but at the moment, he is too big of a wild card, to be trusted with such short odds, like this. Donskoy is a bit streaky player, and could clip a set of Tomic, if he starts to feel it on his shots. Initial lean: over 36.5 games

Another agree. You cannot back players like Tomic for these kinds of odds. Maybe back Donskoy and hope for another Tomic choke

Filipo Volandri-Edouard Roger Vaselin (+11 and u/o25)
Volandri is a joke. At this level, he isn't even competitive on clay courts, anymore. His only surface. Initial lean: Roger Vaselin -11

-11? Wow....even 6:4 6:2 6:1 would only be cashback....it is still only ERV

Marin Cilic-Paul Henri Mathieu (-6 and u/o38)
After doing so well in Queens club, in past several years, Cilic took an early exit 2 weeks ago. I am not that worried about it. He played well before that. Mathieu has a pretty similar style of play, only that he is at least level below Cilic. Line seems to be set just about right. Slight edge to Cilic. Initial lean: under 38 games.

I really like Cilic's play. Would go with under here too or maybe Cilic-6

Grigor Dimitrov-Ryan Harrison (-7 and u/o33.5)
It seems like Harrison is coming back to life, with these 3 wins in the qualies. He probably got some confidence back, but I think he is still not at the level, where he needs to be, to challange top guys like Dimitrov. Initial lean: under 33.5

Dimitrov really impressed me at Queens. Not a big fan of Harrison. Will be a pretty easy win for Dimi. He should cover the HC if focussed enough

Teymuraz Gabashvili-Tim Puetz (+3 and u/o40)
I have zero knowledge about Puetz's game. But considering, he is set as a favorite here, I guess he has good style for the grass courts. Gabashvili's second serve is his biggest wekness, which is even bigger liability on grass, where you cannot allow many breaks. Still, I like his fighting spirit and that he does not go down easily. Initial lean: Gabashvili +3

Go with Puetz. Has three wins under his belt already. Players out of qualification often have an advantage in these open matches

Steve Johnson-Roberto Bautista Agut (+4 and u/o 39.5)
As I wrote once in my thread, some people have entierly wrong perception about Bautista Agut. His slightly boring game, could lead you to believe he is one of those old school spanish tennis players, which can only play on clay. Well, he actualy can do very well on faster ones as well. He just proved that in Hertogenbosch, last week, where he took the title. He matches up really well against big hitters, which doesn't really have idea how to beat opponent, but simply wants to overpower it. Johnson fits pretty much perfectly in that description. Bautista can defend really well, getting those balls deep into the court. He can take the pace of the ball, when he wants to and he can counter punch. Not big value in these odds, but still... Initial lean: Bautista Agut -4

RBA for me too. I even think there is some value

Luke Saville-Dominic Thiem (+4 and u/o 39.5)
Since I am not huge fan of challenger tour, I know nothing of Luke saville. He has adventage of already having 3 wins under his belt, from the qualies, whle Thiem doesn't have that much experiance on the grass. Either Thiem is going to get quickly familiar with the grass, and dominate with his talent. Or he will struggle to find his footing and timing on his shots. One way or another, it might fall under this line. Initial lean: under 39.5

Never seen Saville. But he had a succesful qualification.Maybe an upset here. Not sure how good Thiems play fits on grass. We will see

and on it goes....

**Honeybadger44** · 06-22-14, 05:04 PM

Pablo Carreno Busta-David Ferrer (+9 and u/o28.5)
Fact that he didn't play any tournaments on grass, are showin to me that Carreno Busta doesn't expect much from this tournament. But, on the other hand, that might result in him, being very relaxed here. He will go for it, and he could maybe steal a set from Ferrer. Initial lean: over 28.5 games

Andreas Haider Maurer-Kyle Edmund (+4 and u/o40)
Not impressed by Edmund. I don't see big talent there, at the moment. Line too high. Initial lean: Haider Maurer +4

Tobias Kamke-Jan Hernych (-3.5 and u/o39.5)
Kamke showed played ona very high level in Eastbourne. He is prepared well for this tournament. Initial lean: Kamke -3.5

Alex Kuznetsov-Fabio Fognini (+5 and u/o37.5)
Kuznetsov fought through 3 rounds of qualies, while Fognini doesn't have a grass court match, this season. As I wrote before, Fabio is turning to his old ways. Paying attention to unimportant things on court, arguing with the umpire, rather then focusing on his game. Kuznetsov likes faster surfaces. Initial lean: over 37.5 games

Andrey Kuznetsov-Daniel Evans (-3 and u/o40.5)
I am not giving up on Evans just yet. I still think he can play on a decent level, on grass courts. Kuznetsov has a shotmaking ability, but lacks consistancy. I see this one pretty evened up. Initial lean: Evans +3

Radek Stepanek-Pablo Cuevas (-8 and u/o31)
On clay, this might be an interesting matchup. But here, Radek is just too strong. Cuevas will struggle to find the way to counter his serve&volley and deal with all the grass court tricks, which Stepanek will throw at him. Initial lean: under 31 games

Novak Djokovic-Andrey Golubev (-9.5 and u/o27.5)
Novak usualy doens't want to lose any time in the early rounds of grand slams. But, because he haven't played a match since the RG finals. And also because he might look to implement some features into his grass court game (under tutoring of Boris Becker), this one might not be as smooth as some might expect. Initial lean: over 27.5 games

Sam Groth-Alexandr Dolgopolov (+3 and u/o40)
Yes, Groth has one of the fastest serves on the planet. Although I didn't watch his game that much, his ranking is telling me, that he has nothing to back up that serve. Dolgopolov is above average returner and overall, much better player then Groth. Initial lean: Dolgopolov -3

Bradley Klahn-Sam Querrey (+6 and u/o35.5)
Klahn isn't one of those typical american players. His serve is not that big, his forehand is not deadly, etc. He mostly relys on patient point constructing and a good touch. Not a big fan of Querrey, but in current form ,he should be able to blow Klahn off the court. Initial lean: Querrey -6

Jurgen Melzer-JW Tsonga (+5.5 and u/o38.5)
If I can recall it well, we could see a very similar line in their previous match, in RG. Back then, Tsonga didn't have any problems to get that win. But, despite this being Tsonga's favorite surface, Melzer could prove to be a very tricky opponent, with his skills at the net. Initial lean: over 38.5

Donald Young-Benjamin Becker (+3.5 and u/o39.5)
I tryed to find reasons to take Young here, but I can't. I knew that because of Becker's good performance last week, there will be tough to find any value on his side, in first round of Wimbledon. Young did improved a lot lately, but Becker is simply a great grass court player. Initial lean: Benjamin Becker -3.5

**RobRifle** · 06-22-14, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by Honeybadger44

Pablo Carreno Busta-David Ferrer (+9 and u/o28.5)
Fact that he didn't play any tournaments on grass, are showin to me that Carreno Busta doesn't expect much from this tournament. But, on the other hand, that might result in him, being very relaxed here. He will go for it, and he could maybe steal a set from Ferrer. Initial lean: over 28.5 games

6-3 6-3 6-3....don't see a set for CB here. Under here

Andreas Haider Maurer-Kyle Edmund (+4 and u/o40)
Not impressed by Edmund. I don't see big talent there, at the moment. Line too high. Initial lean: Haider Maurer +4

Is really someone of these mugs going into a 2nd round at Wimbledon? Sound like a challenger early round matchup

Tobias Kamke-Jan Hernych (-3.5 and u/o39.5)
Kamke showed played ona very high level in Eastbourne. He is prepared well for this tournament. Initial lean: Kamke -3.5

Kamke should cover here, agree

Alex Kuznetsov-Fabio Fognini (+5 and u/o37.5)
Kuznetsov fought through 3 rounds of qualies, while Fognini doesn't have a grass court match, this season. As I wrote before, Fabio is turning to his old ways. Paying attention to unimportant things on court, arguing with the umpire, rather then focusing on his game. Kuznetsov likes faster surfaces. Initial lean: over 37.5 games

Bye bye Fog

Andrey Kuznetsov-Daniel Evans (-3 and u/o40.5)
I am not giving up on Evans just yet. I still think he can play on a decent level, on grass courts. Kuznetsov has a shotmaking ability, but lacks consistancy. I see this one pretty evened up. Initial lean: Evans +3

open Match up...so I also back Evans here

Radek Stepanek-Pablo Cuevas (-8 and u/o31)
On clay, this might be an interesting matchup. But here, Radek is just too strong. Cuevas will struggle to find the way to counter his serve&volley and deal with all the grass court tricks, which Stepanek will throw at him. Initial lean: under 31 games

Stepanek will advance, no doubt. But under 31? not sure here

Novak Djokovic-Andrey Golubev (-9.5 and u/o27.5)
Novak usualy doens't want to lose any time in the early rounds of grand slams. But, because he haven't played a match since the RG finals. And also because he might look to implement some features into his grass court game (under tutoring of Boris Becker), this one might not be as smooth as some might expect. Initial lean: over 27.5 games

Nole never wastes time in early rounds. Line seems to be pretty much spot on

Sam Groth-Alexandr Dolgopolov (+3 and u/o40)
Yes, Groth has one of the fastest serves on the planet. Although I didn't watch his game that much, his ranking is telling me, that he has nothing to back up that serve. Dolgopolov is above average returner and overall, much better player then Groth. Initial lean: Dolgopolov -3

over for me here. Won't be a 3setter and at least one TieBreak.

Bradley Klahn-Sam Querrey (+6 and u/o35.5)
Klahn isn't one of those typical american players. His serve is not that big, his forehand is not deadly, etc. He mostly relys on patient point constructing and a good touch. Not a big fan of Querrey, but in current form ,he should be able to blow Klahn off the court. Initial lean: Querrey -6

Querrey in 3. So under or -6 should both work. Would prefer under

Jurgen Melzer-JW Tsonga (+5.5 and u/o38.5)
If I can recall it well, we could see a very similar line in their previous match, in RG. Back then, Tsonga didn't have any problems to get that win. But, despite this being Tsonga's favorite surface, Melzer could prove to be a very tricky opponent, with his skills at the net. Initial lean: over 38.5

see Tsonga in 4 here. OVer sounds like a solid bet

Donald Young-Benjamin Becker (+3.5 and u/o39.5)
I tryed to find reasons to take Young here, but I can't. I knew that because of Becker's good performance last week, there will be tough to find any value on his side, in first round of Wimbledon. Young did improved a lot lately, but Becker is simply a great grass court player. Initial lean: Benjamin Becker -3.5

agree with Becker

**bucketteam3** · 06-22-14, 10:28 PM

Like the debate here

**frugalgambler** · 06-22-14, 10:49 PM

I do not really see any debate. Not a lot of people can match HB's knowledge of tennis and tennis players. I certainly have no idea about most of the non-top-25 ATP players. Too bad. At least, Robrifle is chiming in. This is a great thread HB, it is just too bad I cannot contribute.

**brodie** · 06-23-14, 12:22 AM

why is edmund a favorite over haider maurer though?

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-23-14, 12:32 AM

Originally posted by zec

Agree here, definitely some value, I was expecting even odds.

Tursunov tweaked his ankle or foot last week + Istomin has beat him 3x in 2014. Line seems appropriate.

Also a note on Evans for others. He's had a bum knee for a long time & already said it will require big rest after Wimbledon. He pretty much said he would not be playing except forit being the big one in his home country. You might tread lightly there.

Injuries are something to look at in several matchups. Without updated info, there is no point to playing any questionably healthy guys.

**Honeybadger44** · 06-23-14, 03:36 AM

Thanks for your input, Rob!

Originally posted by frugalgambler

I do not really see any debate. Not a lot of people can match HB's knowledge of tennis and tennis players. I certainly have no idea about most of the non-top-25 ATP players. Too bad. At least, Robrifle is chiming in. This is a great thread HB, it is just too bad I cannot contribute.

Thanks Frugal. You are right.Not much debating going on. I was hoping for a better response. Oh well, it is, what it is...

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Tursunov tweaked his ankle or foot last week + Istomin has beat him 3x in 2014. Line seems appropriate.

Also a note on Evans for others. He's had a bum knee for a long time & already said it will require big rest after Wimbledon. He pretty much said he would not be playing except forit being the big one in his home country. You might tread lightly there.

Injuries are something to look at in several matchups. Without updated info, there is no point to playing any questionably healthy guys.

I appreciate your input very much, EaglesPhan36! That info about Evans' knee probably saved me some money. Thanks!

<br>
<br>

**BennyBigNuts** · 06-23-14, 03:52 AM

Originally posted by baconbets

tursunov +180 over istomin

I think Istomin is the best play in the first round.
The line got pounded though hard.

**Marillion** · 06-23-14, 03:53 AM

Wow, that's a lot of picks.

I'd stay away from taking Grigor to cover the spread. His return game is poor and he has a lot of work to do on his backhand... this year, if you had taken his opponent underdogs to cover the spread, you would have made some good $$$. Even if Harrison has been horrible recently, I'd still stay away.

I think Becker -3.5 and RBA -4.5 are good bets (or taking their ML at the initial odds).

**SirtySree** · 06-23-14, 04:31 AM

To add to Saville since most ppl in this thread has said they havent seen him play before. I've followed him for a while now along with a couple of young Aussies around his age.

Saville is probably one of those player I would say hasn't quite reached expectations but he still is only 20 so a lot of time still to reach his potential. He was the Wimbledon juniors champion in 2011 and runner up 2012 but the step up hasnt been easy for him.

Grass is definitely his favourite surface though and last preferred of Thiem. When the draw came out, I listed it down as a potential upset prior to the odds coming out. I feel like odds of $3 is fair though and its decent value but nothing extraordinary. Can see Saville pushing Thiem but not necessarily coming out with the win.

Would rate it a 6.5/10 value wise with 5 being even/fair odds in my opinion.

**RobRifle** · 06-23-14, 04:42 AM

Originally posted by SirtySree

To add to Saville since most ppl in this thread has said they havent seen him play before. I've followed him for a while now along with a couple of young Aussies around his age.

Saville is probably one of those player I would say hasn't quite reached expectations but he still is only 20 so a lot of time still to reach his potential. He was the Wimbledon juniors champion in 2011 and runner up 2012 but the step up hasnt been easy for him.

Grass is definitely his favourite surface though and last preferred of Thiem. When the draw came out, I listed it down as a potential upset prior to the odds coming out. I feel like odds of $3 is fair though and its decent value but nothing extraordinary. Can see Saville pushing Thiem but not necessarily coming out with the win.

Would rate it a 6.5/10 value wise with 5 being even/fair odds in my opinion.

Thanks for your input and info about Saville

**baconbets** · 06-23-14, 04:28 PM

goddamn, when the tursunov line opened he was +135, now +240. what the hell is going on with this line?

**Brian891** · 06-23-14, 05:20 PM

Hope u decide to give insight for tomorrow's matches badger. Threw u some points. U and ep were extremely adept and helped me make so much money today I am skipping baseball. Good luck going forward. Reay lookin forward to reading more. U are a great attribute to the forum man

**EaglesPhan36** · 06-23-14, 07:44 PM

Originally posted by baconbets

goddamn, when the tursunov line opened he was +135, now +240. what the hell is going on with this line?

Listed above, but foot injury & Istomin owns him this year. The injury could have been precautionary, but it was just last week.

**JohnnyRudeboy** · 06-23-14, 08:18 PM

Great thread, hope to see more additions

**Brian891** · 06-23-14, 10:53 PM

Any insight for toms matches badger? Love ur write ups today. Very astute.

**Simon Gruber** · 06-23-14, 11:48 PM

Robert - Kyrgios is an interesting situation. Kyrgios in straight sets is +160. Maybe a chance to buy low on someone who a lot of casual players don't know about yet but could be top 10 by this time next year?

**DR225** · 06-23-14, 11:57 PM

lol top 10 player next year?? his best win this year is a toss up between Sock and Becker...

**Spinny** · 06-24-14, 12:03 AM

I think Duckworth has a chance against Gasquet. I use to play same tournaments as him he is very good and in good form at the moment, especially with Gasquet not being overly fit lately

**Honeybadger44** · 06-24-14, 02:45 AM

Originally posted by Brian891

Hope u decide to give insight for tomorrow's matches badger. Threw u some points. U and ep were extremely adept and helped me make so much money today I am skipping baseball. Good luck going forward. Reay lookin forward to reading more. U are a great attribute to the forum man

Sorry man, I will not do write ups for all the matches, like I did yesterday. It was experiment, which didn't give results, which I was hoping for. So, because of that, I don't see point in losing couple of hours, writing those previews... But still, I will have some picks in my usualy thread today and I might throw coupld of leans in this thread as well. Cheers!