Halep to win 1st set +120 worth a shot?

[Premierr23]

I really like this one for tomorrow and would appreciate some thoughts of you guys.
Maria has lost her last three 1st sets. Her serve was pretty inconsistent against Bouchard.
Halep is playing some impressive tennis this tournament and hasn't dropped a set yet.
I see Halep starting strong just like two weeks earlier when they faced each other.

[matt1216]

because sharapova has lost the last 3 first sets..lol... Might be a bit late to the party bro. If sharapova plays great to start for a change, she will blast Halep. This is haleps first final of any grandslam, she should be very nervous... I'm willing to bet sharapova wins no less than 6-3 to open this 1st set. I would be suprised if sharapova wasn't ready for a slam final

[EmpireMaker]

I really like this one for tomorrow and would appreciate some thoughts of you guys.
Maria has lost her last three 1st sets. Her serve was pretty inconsistent against Bouchard.
Halep is playing some impressive tennis this tournament and hasn't dropped a set yet.
I see Halep starting strong just like two weeks earlier when they faced each other.

Absolutely, Halep is playing great and Sharapova is a slow starter.

[reedy]

I like this bet a lot also. Opened at +129. Halep has great footwork and is a very well rounded player. Slow start or not I think there's value there. As for nerves..... I doubt her's are any worst than Maria who will have the bulk of the pressure on her.

Halep has shown throughout the last year { other than a few games back after injury } that she is a consistent top 5 player. Regardless of the spread moving to -3 in Maria's I'm still gonna lay a bit on Haleps ML.

[matt1216]

sharapova hits the ball harder than petkovic and is much more consistant.... when petkovic was hammering the forehand she was pushing halep off the court.....petkovic just wasnt consistant at all. i think this is a bad matchup for halep to be honest.

[EmpireMaker]

sharapova hits the ball harder than petkovic and is much more consistant.... when petkovic was hammering the forehand she was pushing halep off the court.....petkovic just wasnt consistant at all. i think this is a bad matchup for halep to be honest.

Halep beat Stephens and Stephens is a hard hitter.

[matt1216]

i watched that match, stephens gifted it with unforced errors.... + she wasnt even hitting the lines, haleps consistancy frustrated stephens. sharapova will look to end the points...

[whareouttogetme]

Halep to win the first set and lose the match is 5/1

Worth putting a little on?

[frugalgambler]

Halep beat Stephens and Stephens is a hard hitter.

Dude, you cannot seriously compare Stephens to Sharapova, especially on clay. You want a fair comparison look at Serena. The match will be on Maria's racket and it will be all about nerves and jitters. Halep has not beaten anybody that great actually (yet): Kuzzy was injured and Petko was game but was outmatched. Sharapova's last three matches provided a significantly higher level of tennis.

I also do not understand the whole question about taking a shot at a +120 line, the books give you ~40% chance of winning your bet, it is not like you are taking a shot at Murray to beat Nadal or something as far-fetched. Given Maria's patterns, I'd say 1st Halep can hit but the problem is that Maria started the match pretty well against Bouchard so she is aware of her 1st set issue and the bigger factor is that Halep is bound to be pretty nervous. In short, I have no idea. I have my Maria's futures @+185, I got a bit on Halep before her Petko's match @+185 and I am sitting pretty. I think Maria will win, quite possibly 2-0. It might turn out to be the same as Maria-Errani final two years ago.

[jjgold]

Sharapova is so is experienced she rarely chokes actually

Vs Serena she is just overmatched

Do many lesser players actually beat her??

[horja1]

because sharapova has lost the last 3 first sets..lol... Might be a bit late to the party bro. If sharapova plays great to start for a change, she will blast Halep. This is haleps first final of any grandslam, she should be very nervous... I'm willing to bet sharapova wins no less than 6-3 to open this 1st set. I would be suprised if sharapova wasn't ready for a slam final

and how is your reasoning different than his? Halep just played her first GS semifinal and wasn't nervous at all

[frugalgambler]

and how is your reasoning different than his? Halep just played her first GS semifinal and wasn't nervous at all

Was she really ? I think the correct phrase is that she was less nervous than Petko.

[horja1]

Was she really ? I think the correct phrase is that she was less nervous than Petko.

when? during the first set she won 6-2? during the second set when she came back from 1-3 15-40 to win it?

[frugalgambler]

Throughout.

[kenz]

As much as i agree with many points frugal made masha is a woman, the game will be played on 3 sets (where masha is dropping first sets lately) and there should be a reason she is @1.65ish. Closing out the game cant be easy for both sides unless one gets injured

[frugalgambler]

I am not saying Halep won't win the 1st or even the match (I did hedge a bit on my Maria's futures bet I got @+185), but all I am saying is that Maria's potential slow start will probably be offset by potential jitters of Halep. Should be a fun match. Halep is pretty steady all in all, she keeps improving, e.g. she is serving better this year, at this rate she will be #1 pretty soon. But you cannot ignore Masha's clay record and experience. Plus she is 3-0 h2h vs Halep. If I had to pick a side, I'd go Masha 2-1 and/or over, but I am not sure I will. I might just enjoy the final knowing that I am guaranteed some profit no matter what.

[baconbets]

if you like halep first set at +120, why not just take sharapova 2-1 at +275? pretty similar underlying analysis for why both are likely, but one pays significantly more

[frugalgambler]

if you like halep first set at +120, why not just take sharapova 2-1 at +275? pretty similar underlying analysis for why both are likely, but one pays significantly more

Uh, b/c Halep might win it all if she wins the 1st set. Sharapova is resilient, but still...

[jtoler]

Uh, b/c Halep might win it all if she wins the 1st set. Sharapova is resilient, but still...

Odds not good enough man even if you thought Halep might win Pov at +275 is alot better value.

[baconbets]

Uh, b/c Halep might win it all if she wins the 1st set. Sharapova is resilient, but still...

then consider halep 2-0 +300. +120 just isnt that much value.

[frugalgambler]

Nah, I am not considering anything. Might play Sharapova 2-1 after all just for kicks, for a pocket change.

[matt1216]

because sharapova has lost the last 3 first sets..lol... Might be a bit late to the party bro. If sharapova plays great to start for a change, she will blast Halep. This is haleps first final of any grandslam, she should be very nervous... I'm willing to bet sharapova wins no less than 6-3 to open this 1st set. I would be suprised if sharapova wasn't ready for a slam final

Shoulda been 6-2