Raonic vs. Djoker

matt1216 · 06-03-14, 12:37 AM

Milos took a set in Rome because he played amazing... The best i seen on clay. This tourney, he's looked like crap... Granollers had break point opportunities earlier. With the damp conditions(muggy) his serve will not be as effective.... Djokovic in straight sets no doubt in my mind. Great price

SirtySree · 06-03-14, 12:51 AM

^ Granollers had 2 break points the whole match and Raonic's first serve win % was 79. Cilic had 11 break points against Novak.

Definitely possible for Raonic to take a set and at that price, it is worth it. 3-0 for Novak is priced horribly.

matt1216 · 06-03-14, 01:05 AM

Originally posted by SirtySree

^ Granollers had 2 break points the whole match and Raonic's first serve win % was 79. Cilic had 11 break points against Novak.

Definitely possible for Raonic to take a set and at that price, it is worth it. 3-0 for Novak is priced horribly.

It won't happen SirtySree, I have my sources. Take djoker 3-0 sets... The air is supposed to be damp the next couple days

SirtySree · 06-03-14, 01:10 AM

Originally posted by matt1216

It won't happen SirtySree, I have my sources. Take djoker 3-0 sets... The air is supposed to be damp the next couple days

sources of wat lmao

airs been damp almost everyday so nt gona make a difference.

odds dropping on over 3.5 which follows ur trend. regardless, im unlikely to play this but the value lies with the over 3.5.

matt1216 · 06-03-14, 01:14 AM

Originally posted by SirtySree

sources of wat lmao

airs been damp almost everyday so nt gona make a difference.

odds dropping on over 3.5 which follows ur trend. regardless, im unlikely to play this but the value lies with the over 3.5.

What? How is there value on taking a set @ +100?? Raonic has takin 1 set in 6 attempts which is 18%.... So unless your getting over +400 there's no value what so ever

SirtySree · 06-03-14, 01:19 AM

Originally posted by matt1216

What? How is there value on taking a set @ +100?? Raonic has takin 1 set in 6 attempts which is 18%.... So unless your getting over +400 there's no value what so ever

if thats how u determine value, ur doing it wrong

matt1216 · 06-03-14, 01:24 AM

Originally posted by SirtySree

if thats how u determine value, ur doing it wrong

Ok, well anyhow good luck on whatever you play man.

SirtySree · 06-03-14, 01:25 AM

going by ur logic, raonic in the match at rome had 0% chance of taking a set.
also going by ur logic, raonic should have a 50/50 chance of taking one set as he has in 1 out of 2 matches played.

both of the explanations above r wrong in determining value but even if we did go by ur logic, he has a greater than 50/50 chance of taking a set considering the match in Rome was a 3 setter.

SirtySree · 06-03-14, 01:26 AM

Originally posted by matt1216

Ok, well anyhow good luck on whatever you play man.

good luck to u too if u do play the 3-0. im most likely leaving it unless i do live plays

frugalgambler · 06-03-14, 01:32 AM

Originally posted by matt1216

What? How is there value on taking a set @ +100?? Raonic has takin 1 set in 6 attempts which is 18%.... So unless your getting over +400 there's no value what so ever

This is a pretty moronic statement, Matt. The scores were 2-1 a few weeks ago, 3-0 a year ago (presumably a worse Raonic back then). That means Raonic indeed has a 17% chance to win a set in each set played, but since they will play at least 3 sets tomorrow, so Raonic has a 42% chance to win one of those three sets.

But that was just math, it is usually more difficult to go entire 3-sets without a dip in form and Raonic is undeniably a better player than he was a year ago. I like o3.5 sets at +125, I think this is more probable to happen than what the odds would indicate. Also, would you stop with your mysterious sources and trends ? There is however a worrisome trend this year: lots 3-0 scores where you would not expect them b/c players just seem to give up. So I would tread carefully. Maybe Raonic 1st set is interesting too.

brodie · 06-03-14, 01:33 AM

raonic definitely has a shot at taking a set

matt1216 · 06-03-14, 03:57 AM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

This is a pretty moronic statement, Matt. The scores were 2-1 a few weeks ago, 3-0 a year ago (presumably a worse Raonic back then). That means Raonic indeed has a 17% chance to win a set in each set played, but since they will play at least 3 sets tomorrow, so Raonic has a 42% chance to win one of those three sets.

But that was just math, it is usually more difficult to go entire 3-sets without a dip in form and Raonic is undeniably a better player than he was a year ago. I like o3.5 sets at +125, I think this is more probable to happen than what the odds would indicate. Also, would you stop with your mysterious sources and trends ? There is however a worrisome trend this year: lots 3-0 scores where you would not expect them b/c players just seem to give up. So I would tread carefully. Maybe Raonic 1st set is interesting too.

Why would I stop with my trends??? My last wager yesterday saved me 150$ because of this.... Watch ... Sharapova straight set winner today.... Part of my trend. Berdych ML, no problem part of my trend.... There's some Moronic predictions for you.

tipsadontlikehim · 06-03-14, 03:58 AM

i think Djokovic 3-0 but no value

matt1216 · 06-03-14, 04:00 AM

Good luck guys, I am canadian but unfortunately I must go with where the cash is at, and that's 3-0 djoker

kenz · 06-03-14, 04:11 AM

No way I would play 3-0, but BOL

tipsadontlikehim · 06-03-14, 04:16 AM

Originally posted by matt1216

Good luck guys, I am canadian but unfortunately I must go with where the cash is at, and that's 3-0 djoker

by the way i'll be in edmonton in 2 weeks
ever been there before ? any good ?

matt1216 · 06-03-14, 04:19 AM

Originally posted by tipsadontlikehim

by the way i'll be in edmonton in 2 weeks
ever been there before ? any good ?

Hey man.... It's alright, still fairly cold there, I think they might even have snow still haha. Take a look in west Edmonton mall, it's still the main attraction

tipsadontlikehim · 06-03-14, 04:23 AM

cool

i get there to find a job (maybe got one already) damn i didn't expect would be that cold

i just know Edmonton is a crap hockey team (or maybe was?) when i was following the NHL

matt1216 · 06-03-14, 04:28 AM

Originally posted by tipsadontlikehim

cool

i get there to find a job (maybe got one already) damn i didn't expect would be that cold

i just know Edmonton is a crap hockey team (or maybe was?) when i was following the NHL

Lol, still is a shit hockey team... Rebuild mode the last 10 years... Yes lots of jobs up there...

jtoler · 06-03-14, 05:19 AM

Not sure why some dont think Raonic might take a set, I think its about 50/50 therefore not really in value in the line, they could get a rain delay or even play after some rain which Id expect to have more effect on Raonic's movement though.

jtoler · 06-03-14, 05:20 AM

Originally posted by matt1216

What? How is there value on taking a set @ +100?? Raonic has takin 1 set in 6 attempts which is 18%.... So unless your getting over +400 there's no value what so ever

What do those past 6 attempts have to do with today.

matt1216 · 06-03-14, 06:39 AM

Originally posted by jtoler

What do those past 6 attempts have to do with today.

Guys on here don't get it...... Raonic has problems taking the ball off this surface, the intial bounce is hard to handle, and yes there expecting rain over night plus the air is heavy. Rome. (Where Raonic barely took a set) where Raonic had to fight every single service game at Duece just to get to a tie breaker was a slightly faster court

jtoler · 06-03-14, 06:54 AM

Originally posted by matt1216

Guys on here don't get it...... Raonic has problems taking the ball off this surface, the intial bounce is hard to handle, and yes there expecting rain over night plus the air is heavy. Rome. (Where Raonic barely took a set) where Raonic had to fight every single service game at Duece just to get to a tie breaker was a slightly faster court

Rome has been a little slower average wise past few years, at any rate there just may be a tiebreak which are iffy which Im sure is more the reason for the almost even price, but good luck and hope you hit if youve already locked it in. Milos served pretty well that match against the best serve returner on the planet.

beefcake · 06-03-14, 07:04 AM

Tiebreak in match at -165 seems close to a lock as you can get..

tipsadontlikehim · 06-03-14, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by beefcake

Tiebreak in match at -165 seems close to a lock as you can get..

might be a good play but no way it's a lock when the match is played on slow clay against the best returner of the tour

sluggy1616 · 06-03-14, 09:09 AM

I'm not gonna bet on it, but in the past it seems that Joker likes to teach a lesson to players that have given him trouble the match before. Joker was visibly frustrated last time he played the giraffe. Joker has a day off before his next match so I think he will focus and teach the giraffe a straight set lesson.

matt1216 · 06-03-14, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by jtoler

Rome has been a little slower average wise past few years, at any rate there just may be a tiebreak which are iffy which Im sure is more the reason for the almost even price, but good luck and hope you hit if youve already locked it in. Milos served pretty well that match against the best serve returner on the planet.

Thanks bud, good luck to you as well

SharkAA · 06-03-14, 10:18 AM

Raonič is a one dimensional player. Great server, has a good forehand, but that's pretty much it. Unless Djokovič starts doing stupid shyt, Raonič is losing this match in straight sets.

Marillion · 06-03-14, 10:25 AM

I'd say chances of 3-0 and 3-1 are approximately equal. Taking 3-2 Djokovic for some crazy high odds is (ed: actually was - as the match has already started) maybe worth it.

shari91 · 06-03-14, 10:28 AM

I'm on over 36.5 and I fully expect to lose this one now. Djoko is going to turn it up soon I think. I either need 3 tiebreaks or a bit of a miracle in a set. I'm not feeling that Raonic is going to take a set although I obviously hope I'm wrong. Even still I could be hooped.

Marillion · 06-03-14, 10:34 AM

Can someone tell me what happened in the last game of set 1, did Giraffe do two double faults in a row at 30-0 by going aggressive at the second serve? I turned the match on at 30-30 and could infer that from the commentary but am not sure..

JC1186 · 06-03-14, 10:43 AM

Marillion jump on the Roland Garros website. From there go to live scores and open up Slam Tracker. Click into the match and enjoy all the features. Every point is updated with what happens. At is happens. It's great!

Looks like this.

As you can see, no, Raonic didn't double fault in that game.

Steamroller · 06-03-14, 12:00 PM

I knew Clowndovic let's Raonic to break at least once before closing the game.

JustSomeCash · 06-03-14, 12:04 PM

Originally posted by Steamroller

I knew Clowndovic let's Raonic to break at least once before closing the game.

I've said it many times earlier this year ...Joker having trouble closing games when he need to serve for that..he get broken a lot of times this year in such situations...

Graded Bets
TICKET	ACCEPTED	DECIDED	TYPE	DESCRIPTION	WAGERPRICE	STAKE	+/-
379403269-1 1	9:54am 3-Jun-14	3-Jun-14	Tennis GAME HANDICAP	M. Raonic Game 8 of Set 3 (+0) vs N. Djokovic Game 8 of Set 3 for Match.	9.750	18.00	157.50
						18.00	157.50