Coin-Flip with 39% bonus payout: Saffy over Kuzzy

[fitguy67]

title says it all...

tennis weenies knock yourselves out trying to pick a winner here...

u'll be like the guys writing amazingly-detailed monographs micro-analyzing perceived physical idiosyncracies in specific roulette wheels at specific b&m casinos...

i just see no edge in the dirt on this one EITHER way...

i'll take the plus-money side on coin-flips like this every time

[matt1216]

fitguy, why the fck is Safarova a dog??? Kuznetsov woulda lost to Kvitova if she didn't injure herself

[matt1216]

Kvitova had 60 UFE's and kuz had 20 UFE... Yet kuz barely won.... Disgusting

[frugalgambler]

Call the linemakers, you found their cryptonite. The line is where it is a for a reason: these appear to be two players of similar age and with similar recent performance except one of them is a former GS champ, including one at RG, while the other has reached a GS QF only once in her career, back in 2007 at Aus Open. But this is such a no-lose thread for you: whoever loses you called it a coin-flip prior to the game so you will not look stupid in any case. I am leaning Kuzzy 2-1, though.

The only "coinflip" that is hard to read is JJ vs Sarah, I think. And the odds seem to confirm that. Any opinions are welcome though (have not watched those two at RG).

[jtoler]

Kuz wins.

[frugalgambler]

Kvitova had 60 UFE's and kuz had 20 UFE... Yet kuz barely won.... Disgusting

Ever heard of players going for the winners and committing more UEs, yet hitting more winners and winning their matches ?

[fitguy67]

The only "coinflip" that is hard to read is JJ vs Sarah, I think. And odds seem to confirm that. Any opinions are welcome though (have not watched those two at RG).

agree fully on this...and the only whack-a-mole bonus-payout price on EITHER side available now worth biting on is Errani 2.10 (bet365)...(which i locked in about an hour ago and is apparently still available)...

anybody buying a side on Errani/Janko at anything less than 2.00 is paying for the excitement/vanity of being proven "right" in their "Serbs or Wops" coinflip

[frugalgambler]

Yeah, I am leaning the same fitguy. I might be even more bold and look at Errani 2-0, she has been good at RG and has just beaten JJ 2-0 a few weeks ago on clay. But still, I am not going to go big on that one or on Kuzzy for that matter, if at all. GL to you.

[fitguy67]

also agree fully on the "go small" advice...

if you have 100 chips and someone offers you +105 on Heads on fair coin flips...BUT specifies you must play continually nothing less than 5 chips...and you must commit to at least 1000 plays...

you'd be a dolt to accept...altho' u clearly have a 5% edge on each and every flip...being forced to overbet like that you'd have a negligible chance of not being wiped into near-oblivion at some stage by an inevitably-strong wave of "Tails"...

(Footnote for weenies: this would be full-kelly at the beginning...which would already have, at any point, a 33% chance of halving the bank before doubling it IF the 5% of remaining balance were continually applied toward bets with a 5% edge...
BUT if you have to bet a flat 5-chips mimimum as specified by the house here...you'd be eventually forced into over-Kelly bet-sizing--with a rapidly-accelerated likelihood of crashing...)

it's not all about edge...without bet-size management you won't survive the first wave of counter-edge results (eg. a "bad tournament") to enjoy it...

the basic "never more than 2% of remaining roll" principle that is often stated (but seldom followed) is an important cornerstone of bankroll-survival insurance

[amolg24]

Like the Errani play. That is solid IMO, Jankovic has struggled through.

[matt1216]

Ever heard of players going for the winners and committing more UEs, yet hitting more winners and winning their matches ?

Of course, but a 60 to 20 gap is huge.... I watched the match, I think kuz will win but 3 sets again. Safarova plays the top players well

[frugalgambler]

Of course, but a 60 to 20 gap is huge.... I watched the match, I think kuz will win but 3 sets again. Safarova plays the top players well

I would very much like that. Safarova is tough but she almost always falls short in big moments (almost a WTA Berdych). We'll see, for all I know Kuzzy might throw the match as she likes to do sometimes. Maybe she is missing a great party in Moscow tomorrow.

[fitguy67]

a short time ago, kuzzy was playing ARad in the late stages of a tournament...and had her clearly on the ropes repeatedly...and in typical WTA fashion let her back in the match and blew it...no notable "killer instinct" of which to beware...same garden-variety tendency to choke/inability to close the deal we've all come to know and love in WTA

there's no appreciable "eye of the tiger" advantage with either of these two broads...one getting to a GS-SF vs one getting to one level shy of that..."tom-AY-to/tom-AH-to"

and IF there IS an edge to Kuzzy in this subjective department...it clearly pales in comparison to the objective 45%-bonus payout (at 5dimes)/39% (at Pinny)...

tennis betting isn't always about the tennis...it's about recognizing a clearly bargain price in a match among two sides of a proposition you can slide a piece of paper between...talent-wise and intangible-factor-wise as well

[kenz]

I dont like Errani or JJ at these odds pregame. That Rome game was very tight and I was on Errani +3.5

Livebetting is great for this

[ManeOnFire]

Kuzzy should roll here. Although I don't know how Safarova played against Ivanovic? Maybe she's found new form or something.

[kenz]

Kuz-Safarova no idea. material

[fitguy67]

material at anything less than evens is indeed material

but as the payout goes northward of that...it becomes increasingly

"auto-play to win 1u" material...

[Honeybadger44]

Don't know about you guys, but I don't see any value with Safarova here. She steamrolled Ivanovic, because Ana did everything which she was not supposed to do in that match. Kuznetsova is just too clever to repeat her mistakes. She will spin it deep to Safarova's backhand, all day long, by far worse shot, then her forehand. Changing of pace, good point construction from Kuz, should be too much for Safarova to deal with.

I respect fitguy67 and his oppinions, but I see it differently here. Kuznetsova should be bigger favorite.

[Hardcoar]

That's a very interesting view HB... I think the odds are about right but am tempted by Safarova by how poor Kuznetsova was in her last match.

[Honeybadger44]

That's a very interesting view HB... I think the odds are about right but am tempted by Safarova by how poor Kuznetsova was in her last match.

It seems like everyone sees this one from it's own angle. My point was simply, that Ivanovic helped Safarova a lot in that match, to look stronger, then she really is.

[makman]

Under 2.5 sets is the play

[horja1]

it's Kuznetsova's match to lose

[STAY STRONG]

Kuzzy got this. Safarova going down.

[Cappinpicks]

damn -600 now

[frugalgambler]

Go Safarova !

[Dillonious Monk]

Safarova's forehand is on fire. +394 live for Lucie is tempting.

[Cappinpicks]

easy hold now again!

[Cappinpicks]

tough match for saffy shame

[frugalgambler]

Damn, no 2-1 Kuzzy. At least I got 2-0 Errani.