Friday, May 9, Madrid: two attractive dogs

[fitguy67]

I seldom start threads...but thought i'd put these out there for a larger audience who might not frequent the threads i usually haunt (shouts to Kenz, Eaglesphan36, and Hardcoar)...i got both of these not long ago at Pinnacle, but similar odds exist elsewhere...see http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/tennis/

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most appealing value-dog play on tomoro's WTA card by far to me is Garcia over Arad...at 3.87/+287 (implied odds required to break even just 25.8%)...thing to note is that Garcia is decidedly non-French (neither a choker like the men, nor an easily distracted head-case like Alize)...despite the Arad-loving odds, Garcia has at least as good a chance as Kuznetsova who had triple-break point a few days ago before pulling an MMMm (Mannarino-Monfils-Mahut meltdown) and letting ARad off the hook

and if you prefer REAL tennis...Deliciano at 6.84/+584 over Nishikori...no way he's got a less than 14.6% chance of winning...these two guys h2h record is dead even...they've alternated straight-setting each other over the last few years...JapMaster won their last meeting in Japan...so it's Lopez' "turn" and playing in his home country of Spain would make it all the more fitting
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and before any adolescents want to tell me that they'll probably lose...OF COURSE THEY'RE LIKELY TO (AKA. ARE "PROBABLY GOING TO") LOSE...THEY'RE DOGS!!!...If someone recommending plays he "doesn't think will" WIN (ie. he actually KNOWS they have a less than 50% probability or "chance" of winning) is puzzling to you...do yourself a favor and read this lengthy post by yours truly explaining in detail exactly why I bet on Junior dosSantos a few months ago over CainVelasquez knowing full well he'd much more likely lose than win...AND why you must learn to recognize and submit counter-intuitive bets like this...because OVER TIME they are money-makers (aka. are +expected value)...hmmm...let me find the damn thing now

hmmm...search "eating spinach" (cuz that's what taking value bets are like)

[fitguy67]

here is the bit of that thread i was talking about

UFC HW-Championship next Sat, Oct 19th...

Junior DosSantos still at +200 at bet365...+190 or lower evrerywhere else...

this is the "best of 3" rubber-match...and DosSantos has a hell of a lot better chance of winning his title back than the 33.33% implied by this price...

risking 0.5u to win 1.0 units

Brown Pride by TKO or Dec. This fight will look like the second one, Cain will take him down at will and GNP him. Don't like that guy but he's just too good.

You may very well be right. Could be a replay of the 2nd one...or a replay of the 1st one...or something altogether different. I agree with you that an in-the-zone Cain is a beast, and he shouId definitely be favored , I just see this as closer to a coin-flip than the odds indicate...meaning it's worth the pop...The best Cain probably is markedly better than the best JDS (just as the best Nadal is clearly better than the best DelPotro)...but rarely in sports, are both opponents at their best on the day. That's where the dice roll comes in--determining which sides actually show up.

For example, Nadal is better than Delpo...but yesterday a below-average Nadal lost to an above-average Delpo...this has happened 4 times now in the 12 times they met)...when you bet on sports, you're essentially betting on the "roulette spin" of what sides actually show up to the event. Do I think dos Santos will win Saturday? Honest answer is "not really" because I know the probability is definitely less than 50%...BUT as long as i have correctly assessed the likelihood to be greater than the mere 33.33% implied by the odds...then I know for sure that "character building" bets like these are good for my account because the occasional $-pop of the "surprise wins" more than offset the calculated $-leakage caused by the unsurprising losses.


I didn't really think StunGun had much of a chance against Erick Silva last weekend either...just better than the odds indicated. So I bet on him. If you keep taking bets like this that you really don't expect to cash...just because they are where the value lies (ie. good for your account over the long haul)...your account will grow cuz there are surprises galore in sports. That's why they play the games/hold the fights.

Taking value bets are like eating spinach...a good habit to get into, maybe unpleasant each time you do it, but definitely good for you in the long run.

[kenz]

I think you should open more threads fitguy, all your posts are articulate and always fun to read. You are needed here

I have no idea how Garcia plays lately. For Deliciano I agree the price is good but I doubt he wins here. It is like Nadal vs Federer on a really slow clay where nadal is @1.22 + in good shape. Of course Federer is valuable but he will likely lose.
Feliciano looked horrible last week. From some posts I read he looks better this week but he is atill not 100%. He is not a good clay courter as he is mostly slices, has a weak backhand. His back cant be healed in a week, last week it was obvious he was not healthy. Now, Delbonis and Youzhny are 2 guys who are not in good shape,shaky guys and does not have the hearts of lions. However Nishi is a samurai, if he is healthy (When injured he is like everyone else

If Nishi wins today he will have 2620 points and will crack top 10 first time in his career. His highest ranking was 11th, on 17.06.2013.After Barcelona he said he really wants to be in ATP Year-End World Champs this year. "Being consistent enough to be in top 10 or top 8 is extremely difficult but I am good on clay and will give all I can" With Murray,Delpo, Gasquet, Tsonga not doing good this year is a good spot to crack top 8. I did not watch Shangai clash but I watched memphis Final where Kei dominated Feliciano.

This high bouncing fast surface may suit better for Feli than slowest clay but still I doubt Kei will deny his biggest chance to crack top 10 today.

BOL in your plays today

[kenz]

If Nishi wins today he will play Ferrer/Gulbis, beatable guys for Nishi. So he has a shot at the title here.

[fitguy67]

Kenz, ur tennis insight is valuable...these two bets in general (especially the Lopez one) are based less on tennis, tho'...and more on the "roulette spin" of "what versions of the opponents/officials/etc. show up" leading to what ultimately "happens"...

Read post #2 to see what i mean...it's what bettors call "shitting the bed" or "laying an egg" etc. when your insight gets you in on the right side of a bet...but the roulette spin fukks you over...

i've developed the habit over the years of risking candy to win a television set occasionally...putting myself in a position to profit when the thing that i know "probably won't happen"...does

[fitguy67]

BTW, Garcia is the "real deal"...what Thiem is to ATP...Garcia is to the WTA ...Bouchard, is imo much less likely to do so than she is given credit for...Bouchard MAY blossom...but Garcia (Muguruza definitely will too eventually...Keys and Bencic also are often touted in this way)...but Garcia seems to have already started to show her character...which is to me more important than the talent...Bouchard and Muguruza are young'uns with maybe more talent...but they still lack the composure that Garcia is now showing...so Garcia is my favorite WTA young underrated dog...cuz she's got the composure AND the skills and she doesn't beat herself (makes the opponent, whatever their ranking, do that for themselves...never throws in the towel and makes it easier for them...)

i actually won't be at all surprised (or consider myself "lucky) if Garcia is to beat ARad today...it's like the odds are off and i'm getting a big bonus payout on something much closer to a coin flip than the price indicates

if Lopez wins in this spot, however, I WILL be surprised and count myself lucky

[kenz]

I agree Deliciano is valuable. And if you take value bets often, you cant lose in the long run. BOL fitguy

[Hardcoar]

I'm not sure about these to be honest... they actually do seem about fair.

Edit: I think Garcia is a bad bet here below @ 4.

[gaebiskon]

if garcia can maintain her level throughout the year, then she is the real deal.
i don't believe neither can win today

[bababooey13]

no guts , no glory good luck

[Marillion]

BTW, Garcia is the "real deal"...what Thiem is to ATP...Garcia is to the WTA ...Bouchard, is imo much less likely to do so than she is given credit for...Bouchard MAY blossom...but Garcia (Muguruza definitely will too eventually...Keys and Bencic also are often touted in this way)...but Garcia seems to have already started to show her character...which is to me more important than the talent...Bouchard and Muguruza are young'uns with maybe more talent...but they still lack the composure that Garcia is now showing...so Garcia is my favorite WTA young underrated dog...cuz she's got the composure AND the skills and she doesn't beat herself (makes the opponent, whatever their ranking, do that for themselves...never throws in the towel and makes it easier for them...)

i actually won't be at all surprised (or consider myself "lucky) if Garcia is to beat ARad today...it's like the odds are off and i'm getting a big bonus payout on something much closer to a coin flip than the price indicates

if Lopez wins in this spot, however, I WILL be surprised and count myself lucky

Garcia, Keys, Muguruza are the real deal, yeah. Keys is pretty disappointing this season, I wonder if it's something fitness/preparation related.

Maybe Bencic and Vekic but it's really too early to say. I remember how hyped people were when Karatantcheva made it to 35th place at the age of 16 and she's doing nothing right now.

[fitguy67]

i think Bouchard is the one that we'll look back on, as you just did with Karatancheva...as "all-sizzle/no-steak"