Since the beginning of last year when two qualies face each other in the main draw first round, the qualie that wins is 8-5 Straight up in the 2nd round. And we have this situation tomorrow in Carbelles-Baena who is playing Sousa and will be a nice sized dog I am sure. Sometimes these Q's make it to the semis..So might be a good longshot future to hedge. In this tourney who knows where Monfils head is at the bottom of the draw, coming off an emotional Davis Cup tie.
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A sample size of 13 with an 8-5 record has zero meaning moving forward. Zero.Comment -
Small sample size yes, but another WINNER!!!
9-5!!
And he plays a lucky loser in the next round..so good chance of semis..hope someone put a little scratch on him to win besides me..Comment -
Go back and use a greater sample please.Comment -
Yeah, I sure have the time to look at ATP draws since Roy Emerson to figure this out..Just out of curiosity, how big a sample size would be enough for you guys..50,100,200,500??Comment -
Depends on how you define "enough". 20 would imply likelihood, 200 would be as close to "beyond any doubt" you can get. Anything in between should give you an indication.Comment -
13 isnt enough but 20 is
Nice info Beefcake..Comment -
It means sfa really. There's so many variables given the randomness of the draw.
So yeah for sure you'd want a much bigger sample size.
I think Hardcore was being generous with 20. 40 would be the minimum imo.Comment -
Yes, the draw is random, thats why I isolated that the QF/QF matchup..I have looked at so many draws over the years, fooling around with systems..ex wilcards vs Wildcards,unseeded vs Seeded...leftys vs rights..
I just remembered that this came up every now and again..Quick theorys on why recently they have played so well..
1. They(QF) have more at stake, having already gained points for making a draw, they have one win and know that with one more they REALLY improve their ranking and cash.
2.Usually 4 matches under their belt..3 in qualies and 1 in main draw..playing with house money, go for broke..if I lose..fukk it I lready got good points and cash.usually about 20-30 points by then and 5-10..kComment -
Here we go again in Romania
Barankis and Basilavili..Winner plays Monfils..The way feasel is right now, throw ya a buck or two on a future..Comment -
Berankis lost..9-6 since jan of 2013..Comment