Schiemdlova VS Begu - Crazy odds......

matt1216 · 04-07-14, 06:58 PM

Originally posted by losschaser

Schmiedlova double bagled Begu in their last and only meeting, yet is an underdog tomorrow ???

Just placed $1,000 to win $1,200 @ 2.20

More than likely coming back for more

Not sure that's a wise idea... Radwanska beat cibulkova 6-0 6-0 last year. Cibulkova was embarresed. Her next meeting cibulkova came back and drop kicked Radwanska hard.

losschaser · 04-07-14, 10:13 PM

These girls arent in the same class as Radwanska and Cibulkova. That double bagel is still fresh on Begu's mind. These opportunities do not come up too often you have to pounce when you see them.

frugalgambler · 04-07-14, 10:56 PM

These odds are indeed funny. The Czech is a much higher ranked player too. But that double-bagel loss in the last sh.tty challenger of the year in China is highly suspicious. Begu probably tanked to go home for the holidays, or she was playing injured/exhausted and/or she tanked to earn some money. I think this line screams Begu, since most of the squares will think like losschaser.

marniblitz · 04-07-14, 11:00 PM

Begu lost yesterday as a -800 favorite. Before that, she was playing lights out, though. Begu has always been pretty unpredictable.

frugalgambler · 04-07-14, 11:05 PM

Another fix ? Challengers -800 losses usually means fix. I am not advocating one side or another, I might put a little on Begu; but I think losschaser is crazy to put so much based on that one suspicious loss last year.

losschaser · 04-07-14, 11:18 PM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

Another fix ? Challengers -800 losses usually means fix. I am not advocating one side or another, I might put a little on Begu; but I think losschaser is crazy to put so much based on that one suspicious loss last year.

This analysis makes more sense then all of the delusional nonsense that anyone else posts on this forum. What the fukk more could you possibly hope for / want to know prematch ? Schmiedlova double bagels this girl half a year ago and her odds are 2.20. If you dont jump on opportunities such as this then you might as well not gamble at all. If she loses this is still a GREAT bet. I am crazy wagering $1,000 on this ? Crazy is people tossing $2,000 on random matches when they are chasing.

frugalgambler · 04-07-14, 11:34 PM

Originally posted by losschaser

This analysis makes more sense then all of the delusional nonsense that anyone else posts on this forum. What the fukk more could you possibly hope for / want to know prematch ? Schmiedlova double bagels this girl half a year ago and her odds are 2.20. If you dont jump on opportunities such as this then you might as well not gamble at all. If she loses this is still a GREAT bet. I am crazy wagering $1,000 on this ? Crazy is people tossing $2,000 on random matches when they are chasing.

It is all about unit size. If you are rich enough that your unit size is $1K go for it. I am not putting more than a unit on this one, if at all. If I were to go higher on that one, I would want to watch their recent matches and also try to gauge their motivation to win. The oddsmakers think that Begu is more likely to win despite that one loss and more importantly despite the ranking disparity. Excuse me, but I tend to trust oddsmakers on this one. Your bet is based wholly on that one rather meaningless match in Nanjing.

losschaser · 04-07-14, 11:52 PM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

It is all about unit size. If you are rich enough that your unit size is $1K go for it. I am not putting more than a unit on this one, if at all. If I were to go higher on that one, I would want to watch their recent matches and also try to gauge their motivation to win. The oddsmakers think that Begu is more likely to win despite that one loss and more importantly despite the ranking disparity. Excuse me, but I tend to trust oddsmakers on this one. Your bet is based wholly on that one rather meaningless match in Nanjing.

I would love to hear how you rationalize your bets. Wait for someone to write a compelling pre match analysis (opinions) and blindly follow ?

H2H is one of the most important factors in tennis. Begu clearly had no answer for Schmiedlovas game their last meeting. Now if she turns it around I would be highly shocked but even if I lose this bet it wont affect me at all. I would be more pissed if I did not bet a large amount on her and if she won.

frugalgambler · 04-08-14, 12:02 AM

Originally posted by losschaser

I would love to hear how you rationalize your bets. Wait for someone to write a compelling pre match analysis (opinions) and blindly follow ?

H2H is one of the most important factors in tennis. Begu clearly had no answer for Schmiedlovas game their last meeting. Now if she turns it around I would be highly shocked but even if I lose this bet it wont affect me at all. I would be more pissed if I did not bet a large amount on her and if she won.

I know my strengths and weaknesses, and tennis is not my forte; hence I rarely bet on sh.tty tourneys and, yeah, I do not mind admitting that I tail good cappers occasionally (you are not one of them but I do check your threads).

a) h2h is very overrated for the vast majority of matches; b) if your h2h sample size consists of one meaningless match, that h2h is almost completely irrelevant. How do YOU rationalize your bets, I wonder. H2H, rankings and recent record only ? Good luck with that.

PS You do realize that they will be playing on clay, while that loss was on hard ? Begu has been killing it on clay in 2011-12. If she is back to that form, the young Czech chick is likely going to lose.

losschaser · 04-08-14, 12:08 AM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

I know my strengths and weaknesses, and tennis is not my forte; hence I rarely bet on sh.tty tourneys and, yeah, I do not mind admitting that I tail good cappers occasionally (you are not one of them but I do check your threads).

a) h2h is very overrated for the vast majority of matches; b) if your h2h sample size consists of one meaningless match, that h2h is almost completely irrelevant. How do YOU rationalize your bets, I wonder. H2H, rankings and recent record only ? Good luck with that.

My record speaks for itself. Up $15,000 in 3 months last year, up $3,000 this year. Lets see yours

frugalgambler · 04-08-14, 12:12 AM

Originally posted by losschaser

My record speaks for itself. Up $15,000 in 3 months last year, up $3,000 this year. Lets see yours

And where is the proof dude ? Last time I checked you hit a losing streak once you started to consistently pre-post your picks. Had your record been that impressive, you'd have more followers than Pope. The absolute numbers mean nothing to me, since you might as well be betting air. What is your unit size and ROI ? Anyway, even if your tomorrow's bet somehow wins, I still think that your reasoning is highly suspect.

losschaser · 04-08-14, 12:19 AM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

And where is the proof dude ? Last time I checked you hit a losing streak once you started to consistently pre-post your picks. Had your record been that impressive, you'd have more followers than Pope. The absolute numbers mean nothing to me, since you might as well be betting air. What is your unit size and ROI ? Anyway, even if your tomorrow's bet somehow wins, I still think that your reasoning is highly suspect.

Proof ? As in the $3K monthly cheques I was getting from bovada ? I was up $20K or so then lost $7 or $8K so I took a break. I have pre posted every match what I wager online. I play BB through a bookie. Not even worth posting BB on SBR and I am starting to question the same for tennis.

frugalgambler · 04-08-14, 12:29 AM

Originally posted by losschaser

Proof ? As in the $3K monthly cheques I was getting from bovada ? I was up $20K or so then lost $7 or $8K so I took a break. I have pre posted every match what I wager online. I play BB through a bookie. Not even worth posting BB on SBR and I am starting to question the same for tennis.

Why do you post your picks, anyway ? To boost your ego when you win or to generate discussions ? You posted, I stated my opinion with a full disclaimer that I do not feel strongly about this match and that I am not that good at sh.tty WTA/ATP tourneys. Now you seem to take offense at my posts. Whatever, dude. Cannot really wish you luck since I might go against you. Take care.

PS You do realize that you Bovada checks claim seems a bit childish, even if true. You did go on a losing streak once you started to pre-post your picks late last year. Anyway, year-to-year gambling performance changes a lot for many cappers. GL on your other picks.

losschaser · 04-08-14, 12:41 AM

Whatever man. I dont care. This discussion just made me realize what a waste of time this forum is.

frugalgambler · 04-08-14, 12:48 AM

Oh, come one. I promise that I will not post on your threads, if it makes you feel better. I am sure you like plenty of other folks around this forum. GL.

tommygun · 04-08-14, 02:53 AM

both of you are losers. Im up $37,000 on tennis since 2011. want proof?

tommygun · 04-08-14, 03:01 AM

for info: Begu has won last 14/15 on clay.

innn · 04-08-14, 06:15 AM

Originally posted by losschaser

These girls arent in the same class as Radwanska and Cibulkova. That double bagel is still fresh on Begu's mind. These opportunities do not come up too often you have to pounce when you see them.

how fresh? 2011 ? we are deep into 2014

the only thing (and the most important one) pointing to a possible Schmiedlova cover is the fact that Begu played an awful lot aka a TON of tennis already this year.

Par exemple, Veronica Cepede-Royg just beat her this weekend , a player Begu double bageled just weeks before.

Oh and this is on CLAY. 2011 meeting was on Hard Disk 7200 rpm.

SirtySree · 04-08-14, 06:31 AM

Originally posted by innn

how fresh? 2011 ? we are deep into 2014

the only thing (and the most important one) pointing to a possible Schmiedlova cover is the fact that Begu played an awful lot aka a TON of tennis already this year.

Par exemple, Veronica Cepede-Royg just beat her this weekend , a player Begu double bageled just weeks before.

Oh and this is on CLAY. 2011 meeting was on Hard Disk 7200 rpm.

the game was less than 6 months ago and we arent deep into 2014 yet O_o and royg was never double bageled. in 3 matches, she won 1 and came close to winning another

JC1186 · 04-08-14, 11:48 AM

Just tuned in to see how Schmiedlova plays and boy does she have some terrible body language.

Would cringe if I had money on her.

hossa8110 · 04-08-14, 11:53 AM

schmiedlova is brutal. wouldnt be surprised to see her get bageled in 2nd set

innn · 04-08-14, 11:55 AM

Originally posted by JC1186

Just tuned in to see how Schmiedlova plays and boy does she has some terrible body language.

Would cringe if I had money on her.

Spot on. I am watching right now. Begu looks also like she's lacking in stamina with a very thin upper body. Like I said she's made a run already thorugh the South American ITFs. This match looked a lot usual business lost serve. lost serve. Begu will lose on hard again against this girl but not on clay. She freaking loves to play on clay her body speaks a bit more fluently clay.

Originally posted by SirtySree

the game was less than 6 months ago and we arent deep into 2014 yet O_o and royg was never double bageled. in 3 matches, she won 1 and came close to winning another

Right. I apologize for misleading anyone on this.

Hardcoar · 04-08-14, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by hossa8110

schmiedlova is brutal. wouldnt be surprised to see her get bageled in 2nd set

I wouldn't be surprised if she bagel'd 2:nd set.

Also: Christmas (war is over kids), I personally would not have bet this match at all.

Marillion · 04-08-14, 12:05 PM

Schmiedlova has just won a clay court tournament that was better than the tournaments Begu has been cruising through. Begu played a 3-set final yesterday. I think there was value in Schmiedlova ML.

Hardcoar · 04-08-14, 12:06 PM

I agree, but the odds on her just screamed "trap" up in my face.

Hardcoar · 04-08-14, 12:08 PM

HOLY BAT-SHIT BAT-MAN! Get those disgusting titties out of my face!!

Hardcoar · 04-08-14, 12:09 PM

Was that a first serve I just observed from miss No-Ti7s-All-Up-In-Yo'-Face???

jtoler · 04-08-14, 12:21 PM

different surface duh

JC1186 · 04-08-14, 12:29 PM

Unlucky losschaser. It was pretty clear early on she wasn't giving it 100% out there. Could be that time of the month.. who knows.

pattymayo · 04-08-14, 12:33 PM

Easy fade

Hardcoar · 04-08-14, 12:37 PM

Oh please... taunting someone for losing a bet.

pattymayo · 04-08-14, 12:41 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Oh please... taunting someone for losing a bet.

Only guys who deserve it. Loss chaser is a prikk

frugalgambler · 04-08-14, 12:46 PM

Originally posted by Marillion

Schmiedlova has just won a clay court tournament that was better than the tournaments Begu has been cruising through. Begu played a 3-set final yesterday. I think there was value in Schmiedlova ML.

I am sorry, I do not understand how that crappy tourney in Osprey was better than the ones Begu played in South America. Playing Errorkovic in the final does not really qualify as a real challenge. Also, the Czech girl lost with a similar scoreline to Vesnina last week, and Vesnina is not very good on clay. Anyway, the match the over. I hope losschaser will be back: he is a solid poster. PS I did put 0.5u on Begu 2-0 @+215 odds.

losschaser · 04-08-14, 01:19 PM

Not affected by the result whatsoever. Had all the right reasons to bet on her. These are + EV play in the long runs. I will just subtract it from my Uconn winnings from last night

However, I have realized what a bunch of fukking idiots SBR is. Blind followers, fake accounts, fake bets, annoying scumbags on every thread (cappinpicks, pattymoo etc). By the way who the fukk is this pattymoo guy ? Besides a degenerate loser who has been a member for over 5 years.....

So that's that. I will not be wasting my time on here any longer after today.