How do you decide if you hedge your bet or not(live betting)

[gaebiskon]

I have no idea what to do in the below situation.

For example, I got 2.75 on Djok in the 2nd set.
Djok got broken serving for the match and i figured momentum was with Fed so I hedged my bet.

How do you decide what to do in situations like the above?
Do I make more long-term if I let it ride?

Will someone explain in details what I should do?

Thanks a lot.

[Tmuston Beltics]

You shouldn't make a bet if you're scared of losing. In the long run that will make you lose money.

[faststeady]

The two bets shouldnt be linked. your 2nd bet is either value or not value at that point in time and your previous bet should not influence that thought.

[suicidekings]

The problem with hedging in live betting for tennis is that the windows of opportunity are so small and the momentum a player gains in one game can be lost almost immediately in the next one, making it really tough to truly gain an idea of how the match is playing out, in terms of your initial bet & possible additions.

More often than not, you're better off making your initial bet and riding it out. Beyond that, if you want to hedge, you just need to watch a ton of matches while observing the live lines available to get a better feel for it. You also need to be really aware of how mentally tough each player is. If you don't do the work beforehand, any strategy you come up with or have suggested to you will fail.

[gaebiskon]

Thanks a lot, guise

[poet]

The problem with hedging in live betting for tennis is that the windows of opportunity are so small and the momentum a player gains in one game can be lost almost immediately in the next one, making it really tough to truly gain an idea of how the match is playing out, in terms of your initial bet & possible additions.

More often than not, you're better off making your initial bet and riding it out. Beyond that, if you want to hedge, you just need to watch a ton of matches while observing the live lines available to get a better feel for it. You also need to be really aware of how mentally tough each player is. If you don't do the work beforehand, any strategy you come up with or have suggested to you will fail.

Man, you know your stuff. It has taken me an entire year to get used to live betting. Here is a simple rule that I believe you need to follow to succeed. Buy low, sell high. What this means is don't pay more juice for a player live betting than you would have had to prior to the match. For instance, when Fed won the first set today you don't buy Fed just cause he is winning. Chances are, Novak will come back, unless you notice he is injured, tired or not interested. Hence, you buy Novak because you are getting him for cheap. Once Novak wins the second set it is up to you, if you want to hedge. It all depends on how much you want to win or are willing to lose. To give another example, in the women's match today, you should not have bought A Rad, even though she was a bargain after losing the first set. Bad body language, injury, etc... are all things you need to look out for. In that situation you buy Panetta, even though you are paying more because she has the upper hand, while her opponent is ready to throw in the towel.

[suicidekings]

Man, you know your stuff. It has taken me an entire year to get used to live betting. Here is a simple rule that I believe you need to follow to succeed. Buy low, sell high. What this means is don't pay more juice for a player live betting than you would have had to prior to the match. For instance, when Fed won the first set today you don't buy Fed just cause he is winning. Chances are, Novak will come back, unless you notice he is injured, tired or not interested. Hence, you buy Novak because you are getting him for cheap. Once Novak wins the second set it is up to you, if you want to hedge. It all depends on how much you want to win or are willing to lose. To give another example, in the women's match today, you should not have bought A Rad, even though she was a bargain after losing the first set. Bad body language, injury, etc... are all things you need to look out for. In that situation you buy Panetta, even though you are paying more because she has the upper hand, while her opponent is ready to throw in the towel.

This is an extremely important rule to follow.

[kenz]

I think dont live-bet if you dont have a system.

You can buy Djokovic ML in all the games where he loses the first set for example, without watching.

Buy Sijling's opponent in every outdoorhard game where Sijling won the first set for example, without watching.

But dont use it as a hedge. Actually I think never live bet, you can really lose a ton of money because of a deceiving image of 2-3 game period where you think the one who looks good cant lose.

[gaebiskon]

I think dont live-bet if you dont have a system.

You can buy Djokovic ML in all the games where he loses the first set for example, without watching.

Buy Sijling's opponent in every outdoorhard game where Sijling won the first set for example, without watching.

But dont use it as a hedge. Actually I think never live bet, you can really lose a ton of money because of a deceiving image of 2-3 game period where you think the one who looks good cant lose.

kenz, I've seen your thread and it is interesting to note that despite all your success, you don't live-bet.

[gaebiskon]

Do any of you guise bet on betfair?
Liquidity is plenty and I heard some smart/disciplined bettors make a very nice profit although premium charge is driving them away now.

[poet]

kenz, I've seen your thread and it is interesting to note that despite all your success, you don't live-bet.

I won over 1500 this week live betting. More than ever before. I used to hate it. Gave me ulcers. But you have to look for opportunities. 300 on Davis to beat an injured Azarenka. 100 to win 500 when Giorgi was giving Sharapova all she could handle. 100 to win 850 on Dolgo playing a Nadal with no power on his serves. 110 on Panetta to beat an injured A Rad. I felt good about all of those bets because I thought I was seeing something that the lines were not accounting for, or not accounting for enough: e.g., Giorgi's moxie, Azas injury, Nadal's weak serves, and A Rad's bad body language and "injury." When you see something the linesmakers don't see is when you strike.

[kenz]

Do any of you guise bet on betfair?
Liquidity is plenty and I heard some smart/disciplined bettors make a very nice profit although premium charge is driving them away now.

betfair dont operate in my country, it used to but I was not into betting then. Wish I could trade

[kenz]

kenz, I've seen your thread and it is interesting to note that despite all your success, you don't live-bet.

I dont like livebetting.

I won over 1500 this week live betting. More than ever before. I used to hate it. Gave me ulcers. But you have to look for opportunities. 300 on Davis to beat an injured Azarenka. 100 to win 500 when Giorgi was giving Sharapova all she could handle. 100 to win 850 on Dolgo playing a Nadal with no power on his serves. 110 on Panetta to beat an injured A Rad. I felt good about all of those bets because I thought I was seeing something that the lines were not accounting for, or not accounting for enough: e.g., Giorgi's moxie, Azas injury, Nadal's weak serves, and A Rad's bad body language and "injury." When you see something the linesmakers don't see is when you strike.

Great hits, congrats Best part of livebetting is the body language, you see who throws up match. I still dont like it much

[tipsadontlikehim]

betting live when a player is "injured" is the worst thing to do
i still remember this match between Benneteau and Kamke at the French open 2012, didn't bet but felt bad for the guys putting massive wagers on Kamke at the end of the 4th.
oh and that match Montanes vs. Fognini, or Monfils vs. Lu at the Australian open.
Don't trust body language.

[poet]

betting live when a player is "injured" is the worst thing to do
i still remember this match between Benneteau and Kamke at the French open 2012, didn't bet but felt bad for the guys putting massive wagers on Kamke at the end of the 4th.
oh and that match Montanes vs. Fognini, or Monfils vs. Lu at the Australian open.
Don't trust body language.

No one is saying to blindly put a lot of money against the injured player. But putting a moderate sum on a player who can't get their act together even after treatment, etc, and is a woman to boot, well, that's usually money in the bank (especially if you see one book remove the match from live betting, as Bovada did with the Davis/Aza match). With the men, I'd be more careful but again, if you see a guy who is serving poorly because of his back (like Nadal was) and the other guy is a decent returner (as Dolgo was) there is nothing wrong with putting down 100 bucks to win 850.

[JC1186]

Depends how big the initial stake. If fairly high then you lay off when the bet or final leg reaches 1.10 or less.

I've found this method pretty sweet. Surprisingly consistent too. It's just too easy to lay off live these days. Sure you sometimes need to call up (but more often then not you can just bet over the internet on Betfair) but if you're proactive it's easy.

You invest so much time "knowing" the game, and yet, you miss out on a potential $Who Knows$ each year by not laying off?

When you think about it, it's actually pretty damn hilarious! And not in a good way.

[JC1186]

betting live when a player is "injured" is the worst thing to do
i still remember this match between Benneteau and Kamke at the French open 2012, didn't bet but felt bad for the guys putting massive wagers on Kamke at the end of the 4th.
oh and that match Montanes vs. Fognini, or Monfils vs. Lu at the Australian open.
Don't trust body language.

Sorry Poet but Tipsahesamug is BANG on the money.

You do not trust the body language of any player.

It's kind of crazy. You would think anyone with a half decent read on personality could make predictions as to what these WTA Women will do next. But errrr, don't count on it.

Yep even when they look like they're about to be rolled off court on a strether Lisicki style.

That bitch will jump right on back up.

[poet]

Sorry Poet but Tipsahesamug is BANG on the money.

You do not trust the body language of any player.

It's kind of crazy. You would think anyone with a half decent read on personality could make predictions as to what these WTA Women will do next. But errrr, don't count on it.

Yep even when they look like they're about to be rolled off court on a strether Lisicki style.

That bitch will jump right on back up.

Again, it all depends on context. But when you see someone down a set, limping around, crying, smashing her racket,and looking around for someone to save here (including her opponent, by putting her out of her misery) you should take the chance. I mean what the hell is live betting for if not to take advantage of opportunities like that? I'm not sure why you guys are so against it unless you've lost money doing it?

[ChasingInle]

For live betting best tip EVER is to have the matches researched ahead of time.

[kenz]

I think dont live-bet if you dont have a system.

Buy Sijling's opponent in every outdoorhard game where Sijling won the first set for example, without watching.

.