Opinions needed on Challenger tour theory...

[beefcake]

Prize money(13' numbers) ranges from 35,000 total purse to 125,000. My question to you guys is....Over the long term..say hundreds and hundreds of matches, would you say more underdogs would win in the low purse tourneys or the high purse ones???Think of the 35,000 and 45,000 as ATP 250's and the others as 500's to 1000.Which you could make a case that the 250's all kinds of weird shit happens from qualies making semis and finals and wildcards winning to the higher ones where the favs dominate.

Theory is that the decent ranked players stay away from the small purses and would rather play the bigger for more points and the stiffs fill the ranks.Then the better ones notorious for loading up on the others like LU and Istomin play the higher purses,whereas more favs win. Maybe do an analysis of overall ranking of players to overall price or some other math comparison.

[Hardcoar]

On the other hand, underdogs might benefit from the extra motivation of a bigger event. It's really hard to call but I think on average it works out to more upsets in lower-tier tournaments.

[zec]

I have thought about betting a dollar on every heavy underdog in itf tournaments, maybe challenger. Any idea if that would be profitable

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Maybe do an analysis of overall ranking of players to overall price or some other math comparison.

The problem with ranking is that it's such a lagging indicator of form, and/or class.

[beefcake]

Think the best would be to do the overall avg price of the winner in each purse range touurney and do the same for the dogs.Also while yu are doing it take an avg of how many of the top 8 seeds make the QF.Like I mentioned in tipsa's thread is that in the challengers its easy to do this with round performance since every tourney has 32 players with 8 seeds,4 wildcards and 4 qualies and 16 unseeded.

[beefcake]

I have thought about betting a dollar on every heavy underdog in itf tournaments, maybe challenger. Any idea if that would be profitable

ITF would be better, I mean the futures tour.Those players are so even its not even funny.I would say out of 32 players in one their are 16 that could win it.