basic odds question

Hardcoar · 03-06-14, 01:09 PM

You're missing that only one of the two bets will actually pay out (on half the stake), whereas the other will incur a cost of 50$. In order words, you will be calculating your winning based on half as much, then subtracting as much as your stake (for the lost bet) from the profit.

Edit: Without doing too much math, I believe you would gain from it (compared to betting on the match-line) if Polansky wins 2-1, and lose from it if he wins 2-0.

nspa87 · 03-06-14, 01:20 PM

In my calculation I factored in the loss from the additioanal bet, reducing the payout. Still seems to give better line on both vs ML though

tb1984 · 03-06-14, 01:24 PM

Originally posted by nspa87

Just migrated over to Bovada from Bookmaker and looking at lines-

Polansky ML to win +110

Risk $100 to win $110

Polansky 2-0 +275
Polansky 2-1 +350

Why not place $50 on each of these two instead of $100 on ML?

Risking $100 in this scenario, after losing bet, is either a +175 or +250 line vs current +110 line.

What am I missing?

Please no flame.

Thanks,

You're right. It's better with set lines. I think the book has not adjusted the set line odds.

If the opponent retires, set lines will be no action. But, this should not be a big difference in odds.

Hardcoar · 03-06-14, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by nspa87

In my calculation I factored in the loss from the additioanal bet, reducing the payout. Still seems to give better line on both vs ML though

Unless you take into account that 2-1 is significantly less likely than 2-0. You must weight it according to likelihood, although yours might still be the case.

Semper Fidelis · 03-06-14, 01:54 PM

Though 5dimes doesn't offer these opportunities very often (unless it's a major or later stages of the smaller tourneys), I take advantage of this every chance I get, especially if it's a dog I'm wagering on. You will almost always win more this way than taking the dog straight up. I'll start two open parlays with these being the first legs, or I'll use them as the final legs if I still have two open parlays with one slot left. Keep in mind I only do this when I have a strong feeling the dog will win, and only if neither player is injured and the chances of retirement are very low. But I believe you almost have to take advantage of these when they come up if you think the dog will most likely win. I have many parlays that sometimes take days to close, but are worth it because most (if not all in some cases) will be at even money or better. It's surprising how much more parlays pay when they're filled with higher odds picks - the key is just being very selective and taking many live bets, such as wagering on a decent favorite who has lost the 1st set. BOL whatever you decide to do my friend!