Berdych ML * Djokovic ML

[kenz]

$1000 Djokovic ML @1.27 * Berdych ML @1.22 = @1.55

H2H Berdych vs Kohlschreibber: 8-1

I like Berdych's serve and groundstrokes. Havent watched Kohlschreibber this week, but not really a fan of his game. He swept 3 opponents but none of them had big serves + good groundstrokes. I must admit, still I would not expect so clear-cut victories from the German but Berdych should win.

Last 13 games Djokovic vs Federer 10-3

1 is in Wimbledon 2012, I dont trust Novak on grass at all. So Novak owns Federer right now. Federer won here 5 times (12', 07', 05', 04', 03') but they were good ole times. Novak won here 4 times (13',11',10',9'). He is 28 W-3 L here. Federer is 37 W - 5 L. On his 2012 win he beat Murray in the final who beat Novak in the semis.

Federer' one handed BH game is vulnerable against Novak's very balanced and complete FH and double-handed BH technique.

My admiration for Federer twenty-folds for Novak, but he chokes against Novak and Nadal on hardcourts and clay lately. Novak should win.

[SirtySree]

I actually like Federer's chances here or at least to win a set. Federer playing pretty well and Djokovic only looking okay since losing at the Aussie Open. I think the odds are pretty fair though since Djokovic should win but just like maybe the handicap for Fed or to win a set.

Don't think Fed's backhand will be a problem as he only has problems with top spin and only Nadal can generate that much spin.

[kenz]

I actually like Federer's chances here or at least to win a set. Federer playing pretty well and Djokovic only looking okay since losing at the Aussie Open. I think the odds are pretty fair though since Djokovic should win but just like maybe the handicap for Fed or to win a set.

Don't think Fed's backhand will be a problem as he only has problems with top spin and only Nadal can generate that much spin.

Good points

Might also take a little bit Fed +hcp games close to the gametime, following my instincts. But materialistically, agree with what you put on table.

[zec]

I would never put hendikep games here, Nole could win a set 6-1 or 6-2 and you are toast. I like this parlay.

[ZeKa]

Federer rather unable to put his first service in play lately and that will be a major factor tomorrow.On Fed's second serve Djoker should win more than 50% of the points.
At this point Djokovic has a way more solid game than Federer.
So i expect lots of UE from the swiss, also him struggling keeping his service.Matchup looks somehow similar to the Berdych-Tsonga match and i expect a similar score.

Berdych is just to good for Kohlschreiber.Can't see him losing more than 6-7 games.

Anyway parlay looks great and the odds just fine.BOL

[lucullus]

I would put my house and more on Berdych but as some of you know I lost 13k to the houston rocket's (thanks james harden, howard and li)

[matt1216]

yikes, kohl more than capable of winning this.

[bababooey13]

i like kohl tomorrow

[pokerwhiz90]

kohl can definitely steal a set but berdych is just way too consistent, your parlay should be a winner

[Goat Milk]

Odds are way too good on Federer to pass up. This is not a best of 5 match. No way that Djokovic should be this type of favorite in a non best of 5. No way. Federer is still one of the top 3 players in men's tennis. Never forget this.

[kenz]

Yeah I know

Might be an early decision. If Berdych wins I may buy $150 Federer 2-1 @9.20 which is a good price and a hedge

[Honeybadger44]

Odds are way too good on Federer to pass up. This is not a best of 5 match. No way that Djokovic should be this type of favorite in a non best of 5. No way. Federer is still one of the top 3 players in men's tennis. Never forget this.

Don't know about that... Doesn't seem strange to you, that books, even though well aware that they will have nice amount of Federer backers for this match, they put out +350 odds, for Federer ML? I think that is for a reason.
Wouldn't be surprised to see Djoković winning this one in straight. He seemed very strong and confident in first two rounds.

[Goat Milk]

Don't know about that... Doesn't seem strange to you, that books, even though well aware that they will have nice amount of Federer backers for this match, they put out +350 odds, for Federer ML? I think that is for a reason.
Wouldn't be surprised to see Djoković winning this one in straight. He seemed very strong and confident in first two rounds.

Yeah it seems strange. But they know that the casual better is also gonna try and throw Djokovic into their parlays. If anything, Federer being +350 is scaring people away from betting him. These odds should be Federer +220ish. Don't you think? Books don't set odds with the intent of gambling on something. They're just trying to predict what the most efficient line is that is gonna draw even action so they can just collect their juice and win regardless the outcome. They don't know what's gonna happen.

I expect Federer to win this match. It's tough for him to hang with Djokovic on hard courts in a best of 5, but these best of 3s aren't really that taxing on Fed.

[Honeybadger44]

Yeah it seems strange. But they know that the casual better is also gonna try and throw Djokovic into their parlays. If anything, Federer being +350 is scaring people away from betting him. These odds should be Federer +220ish. Don't you think? Books don't set odds with the intent of gambling on something. They're just trying to predict what the most efficient line is that is gonna draw even action so they can just collect their juice and win regardless the outcome. They don't know what's gonna happen.

I expect Federer to win this match. It's tough for him to hang with Djokovic on hard courts in a best of 5, but these best of 3s aren't really that taxing on Fed.

Yeah, I am aware how that works. Speaking about the books and setting up the odds. As you said, in most of the cases they just want to find the line, which would split the betting money equally on both sides, so they can collect the juice. But, there are some rare cases when books do have their own oppinion on the match and they want to get some extra out of it. And I am suspecting that these odds are indicating exactly that. I might be wrong though, but that is how I see it...

I also think that odds should be lower for Federer's win. Traditionally, he has been a tougher opponent for Djoković then Nadal, when we look at the match up. Nole struggled with his aggressive style of game, when Federer steps into the court and takes the ball on the rise. Also, he played some impressive tennis, until the semis at the AO.
Still, that tough loss against Nadal, might hurt his confidence a little bit. He was on a great way to show the world that he still has game, but Rafa dragged his ass all over that court. And regarding to the match up against Novak: with years, his game became less "sharp" the earlier. HE is making more and more uncaracteristical mistakes, which he was not making before. For example, misshits with his backhand. And also the serve is bit more shaky imho. On the other side, Djoković has benn improving and is getting better and better. His movement is flawless. His serve has became weapon and before was weakness. He can produce winners with his forhand now, comparing to the times, when Federer was dominating the series between them. His backhand was always great. And his precision on the shots is also very good. And we don't even have to talk about his mental strenght. It is tough to find some serious weaknesses in his game...
He won this tournament 3 times in a row I think. He feels really good here. He seemed really strong in first two matches and I believe he will kick it up a notch in this one, special threatment for Federer. Also, very motivated to show that loosing in the QF's of AO was not a big deal...

I have to say that I am a Djokovic's fan, but when it comes to capping, I have no problems seeing it from neutral perspective. What I wrote above is how I see this match. I might be wrong though...

[kenz]

Damn

Why did Novak hired that poker addict is beyond me

I get irritated when I see Becker's face in Youwin's commercials

[kenz]

$150 on Federer 2-1 @8.50 @bet365 as a hedge

Dont think Federer can beat 2-0 but I began to feel he can upset a not 100% Novak here.

Instead of profiting $550, I reduce my profit to $400 which is not a huge deal but will feel safer.

If Federer plays unreal and beats 2-0, then tough luck

[tipsadontlikehim]

don't think Federer will win but well, still a smart move i guess

[kenz]

don't think Federer will win but well, still a smart move i guess

might not be so

[zec]

Smart hedge

[jjgold]

joker in trouble in 3rd set

good move guy on the hedge

[mtc44380]

Very smart hedge - of course they dont always work out as well as this one, getting 8.5odds, but Nice work to get some back atleast!

[Honeybadger44]

I have no problems to say this: I was wrong

[Cappinpicks]

Federer was a lock down a set

[CallMeGENO]

Federer was a lock down a set

u r one dumb mothafucka! ever heard hindsight being 20/20 ? im guessing no

[Cappinpicks]

u r one dumb mothafucka! ever heard hindsight being 20/20 ? im guessing no

then why did I bet him in the 3rd -200? I knew he'd win just wasnt awake to bet earlier douche

[reddevil84]

Federer was a lock down a set

First time in 32 meetings that Federer has come back to defeat Djokovic after dropping the first set.. yeah obv. lock

[kenz]

$1000 Djokovic ML @1.27 * Berdych ML @1.22 = @1.55

$150 on Federer 2-1 @8.50 @bet365 as a hedge

Dont think Federer can beat 2-0 but I began to feel he can upset a not 100% Novak here.

-$1000
+$1125
=+$125

[Cappinpicks]

First time in 32 meetings that Federer has come back to defeat Djokovic after dropping the first set.. yeah obv. lock

wow, id say he was due since nole is rusty

[kenz]

Thanks guys, felt Federer could be a trouble for post-Becker Djokovic

Last 4 days

Day 1:+$1367.50
Day 2:+$780
Day 3:+$873.20
Day 4:+$125
=+$3145.70 with $1000 on Dimitrov +4.5 @1.58 is pending for Day 4

[Hardcoar]

First time in 32 meetings that Federer has come back to defeat Djokovic after dropping the first set.. yeah obv. lock

[tipsadontlikehim]

Boris Becker about to get fired

[jjgold]

Becker is whore shit

He is a clown not a coach