Rosol +200 against Tursunov?

Simon Gruber · 02-26-14, 01:29 AM

Tursunov is the higher ranked player. He beat Rosol on a hardcourt already this year and Rosol is 1-6 so far this season so there.

matt1216 · 02-26-14, 01:34 AM

Rosol isn't any better than tursonov to begin with. He's coming off a long losing streak, but it was against Brands.... We all know brands can be shit. Wagering on Rosol is pure Punting IMO

Goat Milk · 02-26-14, 01:41 AM

Guys last time they played look at the stats:

Aces
6	17
Double Faults
1	4
1st Serve
75% (59/78)	52% (47/89)
1st Serve Points Won
71% (42/59)	82% (39/47)
2nd Serve Points Won
57% (11/19)	38% (16/42)
Break Points Saved
87% (7/8)	50% (3/6)
Service Games Played
13	14
1st Serve Return Points Won
17% (8/47)	28% (17/59)
2nd Serve Return Points Won
61% (26/42)	42% (8/19)
Break Points Converted
50% (3/6)	12% (1/8)
Return Games Played
14	13

The right is Rosol. Tursonov has no chance against his first serve if Rosol is on. He only completed 52% of his first serves. That's terrible for Rosol. Tursonov has a weak return game and his first serve was pitiful 35%ish in his last match against Lacko.

Rosol lost that match in 3 sets. Was only 1/8 on break points too. All around a terrible match for Rosol and still went 3 sets? Doesn't that say something?

The surface here is very fast too.

Reconsiderations?

frugalgambler · 02-26-14, 01:49 AM

Tursunov has a weak return game ???

There is a reason why Rosol was serving "only" 52%: because Tursunov was probably winning a lot of points off his weaker first serves. Let me clarify this a bit: a smaller than usual first-service percentage usually indicates that either a) a player is just plain struggling or b) he/she has to go for more power on her serve because he/she is losing points on weaker serves. Tursunov is not the most stable server in the world, but his return game is quite good. So he wins a lot of matches even when he is not serving well. So my educated guess is that it was case b) with Rosol in his first match against Tursunov. Now, I have no idea in what shape Tursunov is right now, but if he is anywhere above 80%, he should win.

tipsadontlikehim · 02-26-14, 02:08 AM

In this kind of unpredictable match, if you always back the highest odds i reckon you'll win some money long term

frugalgambler · 02-26-14, 02:18 AM

Originally posted by tipsadontlikehim

In this kind of unpredictable match, if you always back the highest odds i reckon you'll win some money long term

No, if you do that, you will just end up paying the juice long-term. The odds are usually set where they should be based on the past performance, rankings, etc. If you just start throwing darts without having any insight, you will be not be winning, you will be paying juice. I am not touching this one or any other matches in early rounds at crappy tourneys in boondocks. Just tail matt or any other established capper, if you are a degen starving for action.

kenz · 02-26-14, 02:56 AM

Might be wrong but this is how I see it

Watched the Tursunov - Lacko game, Tursunov was just going thorugh the motions and beat a mediocre out-of form player. Watched him several times this year, he is not the same guy towards the end of 2013 on US Open Series, For the last few months he is back to his shitty 2012 form.Still I think he will win, but I am not sure to wager on this game.

I dislike Rosol more than I dislike Tursunov. He is usually not in good form, and he is not good now. He misses so many break points, and the guy is always very anxious. You can see this during service game breaks, his body language is always so shaky. When waiting for opponents service, he spits around and never has a cool body language. You can clearly see the guy is just not patient or has too much excess energy for tennis. Not a good sign for rallies and winning the decisive important points.

Watched a few games yesterday, the ball goes out really easily in these Dubai courts. Even Djokovic had a hard time keeping the ball in the game in the begining, while Istomin made more unforced errors throwing the ball outside obviously. So in Dubai it is more about making less unforced errors than winners.

Tursunov is good in keeping the ball in the court. He is the better guy in groundstrokes. Rosol is a more explosive guy, more powerful. Lately he is making too many unforced errors and wasting too many break points, which is common for him when he is not hot. He is very tall, and I think being this tall without a complete return technique is a disadvantage in hardcourts,

So I expect a tight Tursunov win by less unforced errors or being the better guy in groundstrokes, but Tursunov being a Russian and Rosol having some questionable games in the past, I am not sure if I should wager on this.

kenz · 02-26-14, 02:59 AM

Last H2H game this year, Tursunov brake 3/6 break points, Rosol 1/8

Which is similar to what I expect today

Over 22.5 also might be a good option though

So my 2 leans are Tursunov ML and over 22.5. Leaning more to Tursunov

Goat Milk · 02-26-14, 03:21 AM

ok thanks guys. frugal i am not just looking for action. i know tennis. tursonov is washed up. can't hit winners anymore. decent defender still but that will fade away too in a year or two.

frugalgambler · 02-26-14, 03:42 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

ok thanks guys. frugal i am not just looking for action. i know tennis. tursonov is washed up. can't hit winners anymore. decent defender still but that will fade away too in a year or two.

Tursunov is washed up ??? The guy was on a tear just a few months ago. I would be careful with sweeping statements like that one. He might be fading but if he is playing tennis at the ripe age of 31, it is not to tank to the likes of Rosol. He might have another big run in him which might start with this tourney. Have you actually seen him play recently ? Do you have any info about his injuries or some such ? I know that he stated that if falls out of top-50 this year, he would retire. So is he getting too old to play at high level or is he going to find his form again ?

PS Your analysis of the match stats does not show that you know much about tennis. And one usually cannot learn that much from the barebones match stats.

Goat Milk · 02-26-14, 03:57 AM

Frugal i know the game. thanks, i think i will stay away from this match. although i truly believe it is a coinflip match and the odds are not right. tursonov is a better player overall but this surface is very very fast and tursunov will struggle to hit any winners. his only chance is to draw a bunch of unforced errors from rosol which is very likely because he's a mental case, but if rosol is on his game and tursonov is on his game too rosol will win this match.

frugalgambler · 02-26-14, 04:02 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Frugal i know the game. thanks, i think i will stay away from this match. although i truly believe it is a coinflip match and the odds are not right. tursonov is a better player overall but this surface is very very fast and tursunov will struggle to hit any winners. his only chance is to draw a bunch of unforced errors from rosol which is very likely because he's a mental case, but if rosol is on his game and tursonov is on his game too rosol will win this match.

Sure you do bud. Care to elaborate why Tursunov will struggle to hit winners on a faster surface ? You do realize that Rosol is much more comfortable on clay, while Tursunov loves hard ?

PS If you do think this match is a coinflip, then you are an idiot for not taking Rosol @+200 odds.

Goat Milk · 02-26-14, 04:13 AM

Originally posted by frugalgambler

Sure you do bud. Care to elaborate why Tursunov will struggle to hit winners on a faster surface ? You do realize that Rosol is much more comfortable on clay, while Tursunov loves hard ?

I think Rosol is a better hard court player than he is clay at this point. Just like I think Federer is better on the clay now than he is on the hard courts in a best of 5. you'll see at the french.

Tursunov should win this match if he plays smart but a lot has to go right for him. I think he needs to serve very well and I think there's a chance he won't serve well. With such a fast surface, this type of court favors big hitters more than quick movers. This surface is one of the fastest if not the fastest hard court surface in the world. Offense wins on this court. That's why fed and novak dominate this tournament. two best offensive players in world.

Tursunov is good at the net but he needs to be sharp from the ground to get to the net. He's gonna have a hard time breaking Rosol this match. Tursunov is gonna be running around for a lot of this match player d. Rosol is not gonna give him a lot of chances to hit winners because the guy plays big he either goes for it and does well or misses a whole bunch of shots.

If Tursunov wins it won't be because he was dominant offensively it'll be because Rosol missed a bunch of shots.

That's my opinion. I'm gonna go very small on Rosol since you guys all like Tursunov.

frugalgambler · 02-26-14, 04:18 AM

Where exactly have I stated that I liked Tursunov ? Rosol at this stage of his career is a sh.t player on any surface (but he clearly likes clay better) and the above analysis makes no sense to me at all. GL on you dart throw.

kenz · 02-26-14, 05:03 AM

Dont like Tursunov, but he is the least that I dislike

tipsadontlikehim · 02-26-14, 06:54 AM

1st set Rosol

lucullus · 02-26-14, 07:02 AM

Originally posted by matt1216

Rosol isn't any better than tursonov to begin with. He's coming off a long losing streak, but it was against Brands.... We all know brands can be shit. Wagering on Rosol is pure Punting IMO

Well you are right about Brands I think Rosol is up and coming, so I think the over is a good play here

fsulover100 · 02-26-14, 07:32 AM

Up and coming? He is 28 lol you act like he is a young up and comer like Grigor Dimitrov

kenz · 02-26-14, 07:34 AM

Originally posted by kenz

Last H2H game this year, Tursunov brake 3/6 break points, Rosol 1/8

Which is similar to what I expect today

Over 22.5 also might be a good option though

So my 2 leans are Tursunov ML and over 22.5. Leaning more to Tursunov

Over hits, although a no-bet match for me

kenz · 02-26-14, 07:42 AM

Congratulations to Rosol backers

CallMeGENO · 02-26-14, 07:45 AM

turnusov being a -200+ fav said it all. that dude should never be that big of a fav no matter who he plays really.

Regul8er · 02-26-14, 08:55 AM

Funny......1st game of the match Tursunov gets broken at love......then no breaks the rest of the match. Classic Stuff! Tursunov is a guy I won't bet for or against anymore......he has buried me several times for and against him.

matt1216 · 02-26-14, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by lucullus

Well you are right about Brands I think Rosol is up and coming, so I think the over is a good play here

Yeah Rosol is a vertn in tennis. He won today, but I classify him in the French bucket of shit

Tmuston Beltics · 02-26-14, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

Yeah Rosol is a vertn in tennis. He won today, but I classify him in the French bucket of shit

Rosol is Czech. Tursunov would be -200 favorite against Gimeno-Traver. His name should be Gime-No-Travel.. Because he should never leave Spain. He's that bad of a player(other than clay).

Hardcoar · 02-26-14, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

Yeah Rosol is a vertn in tennis. He won today, but I classify him in the French bucket of shit

'The f*ck is a "vertn"??

Originally posted by Tmuston Beltics

Rosol is Czech. Tursunov would be -200 favorite against Gimeno-Traver. His name should be Gime-No-Travel.. Because he should never leave Spain. He's that bad of a player(other than clay).

Thanks for telling us, we had no idea.

Also, wouldn't "GimmeNoTravel" be better?