Nadal vs Wawrinka - Aussie Open Final 2014

[tipsadontlikehim]

There is nothing to play on this final

I could go big again on Nadal @1.20 like I did on Tsonga to beat Simon, but well i won't this time, i'll just enjoy the final

[shari91]

But why did they think Fed would win? And why was Rafa only -150 in this spot?

I'm trying to wrap my head around this after seeing what I saw last night.

The casual tennis watchers saw Fed vs Tsonga and then Fed beat Murray and just love Fed. He has a lot of fans as he rightfully should. As I posted in my thread earlier this afternoon, 65% of people were taking him to win the match. BUT if they'd followed tennis normally they would've realised Tsonga was on Xanax or something of the sort and Murray obviously wasn't even 60% with his fitness. I was on Fed in both those matches and happily cashed him as a dog so if I were an emotional happy chappy as 2nd shift JJ said I would've just jumped on the bandwagon of those wins + Nadal's blisters. The thing is though, people will always bet Fed. Just like they'll always bet Hewitt. Doesn't matter who they're playing, their form going in, etc... if you bet tennis regularly you're going to *want* to bet them every time they play. People thought Fed would win for the exact reasons you heard in here: "blisters", "roof", "last chance to win a Slam", "Nadal lost a set to Dimitrov", "Fed wants it more". I argued back against each of those other than the roof because that was too silly for me to even engage in but it's not a hard sell to bet on Fed. I've done it many times, at plus odds against Nadal, and I have many sad sack threads on this forum proving that I regretted it. Nadal vs Fed = no bueno as a Fed backer.

[EaglesPhan36]

Stunned as I just looked up the head-2-head. Stan has never won a set against Rafa if I see correctly. Played some tough sets last year on hard courts vs. him, but still lost three TBs out of four sets. Agree with the nerves part of playing your first Grand Slam Final. I can see a couple tight sets, but he if Stan falls down 0-2, could finish with a whimper in a 3rd set. As usual, I will probably look deeper on some props rather than forcing a play on the total or games spread.

[jjgold]

If you think Nadal is going to wipe him off the court your very mistaken

Nobody wipes stan off the court now

Perfect play from Joker and he struggles vs Stan now

[shari91]

If you think Nadal is going to wipe him off the court your very mistaken

Nobody wipes stan off the court now

Perfect play from Joker and he struggles vs Stan now

No one said that wacko. Your pal Pavy said the opposite: Stan would destroy Nadal.

I think this will be tight but Nadal will win, probably in 3 maybe in 4 if Stan is lucky.

[Cross]

The only real drama I can see in this match is whether not Nadal wins in three sets or four sets. I can't really see any other result. The Stanimal could be at the top of his game, but Nadal will fight and find a way to win no doubt.

[MCherry281]

I bet Fed to beat Rafa and was miserable. I gave up and went to bed midway through the 2nd set and woke up to what I expected. I'm not going against Rafa again but can't lay the huge juice either. Sleep wins and will wake up to the Rafa demolition. I would love to see Stan win but it can't happen. Rafa too good.

[No coincidences]

The casual tennis watchers saw Fed vs Tsonga and then Fed beat Murray and just love Fed. He has a lot of fans as he rightfully should. As I posted in my thread earlier this afternoon, 65% of people were taking him to win the match. BUT if they'd followed tennis normally they would've realised Tsonga was on Xanax or something of the sort and Murray obviously wasn't even 60% with his fitness. I was on Fed in both those matches and happily cashed him as a dog so if I were an emotional happy chappy as 2nd shift JJ said I would've just jumped on the bandwagon of those wins + Nadal's blisters. The thing is though, people will always bet Fed. Just like they'll always bet Hewitt. Doesn't matter who they're playing, their form going in, etc... if you bet tennis regularly you're going to *want* to bet them every time they play. People thought Fed would win for the exact reasons you heard in here: "blisters", "roof", "last chance to win a Slam", "Nadal lost a set to Dimitrov", "Fed wants it more". I argued back against each of those other than the roof because that was too silly for me to even engage in but it's not a hard sell to bet on Fed. I've done it many times, at plus odds against Nadal, and I have many sad sack threads on this forum proving that I regretted it. Nadal vs Fed = no bueno as a Fed backer.

Wow. Seriously?

I'd still think the books would be smarter than that -- that they could put Fed at +200 and just bury everyone if it's true that 65% were backing him anyway. At +130, it seems like the oddsmakers were actually giving him a puncher's chance as well. Given their history, I didn't understand it. And it didn't get very deep in the match to realize the -160 or whatever for Rafa was the steal of the century.

[tto827]

Wawrinka's backhand isn't good enough to compete with Nadal.

Nadal moves well enough to control the match and Wawrinka gets beat pretty handedly. He might be able to hold his serve fairly often, Nadal will get his breaks, but just cannot see Wawrinka breaking Nadal more than three times.

[sluggy1616]

"My head keeps telling me just forget it. My heart keeps telling me don't let go. I want to hold on to Stan. That's what I intend to do. I'm hopelessly devoted to you"

[GoBlue77]

"My head keeps telling me just forget it. My heart keeps telling me don't let go. I want to hold on to Stan. That's what I intend to do. I'm hopelessly devoted to you"

been watching too much Titanic brah ?

[Bet10Heinekens]

Nadal record vs single-hand backhand players

vs. Fed 23-10
vs. Wawa 12-0
vs. Gasquet 12-0
vs. Haas 5-0
vs. Almagro 10-0
vs. Robredo 7-0
vs. Kohlschreiber 11-1

[Big Bear]

No way am I touching ML. Never at these odds and I really don't have anything to parlay him with as I like Cibulkova in the ladies final. Whatever I bet, it'll be for just a piece of what I won on Nadal and I'll bank the rest. Trust me, they're not getting their cash back from me this time!

shari its good to see you posting again

[Demonata]

I like Wawrinka moneyline. Hes been playing amazing.

[jjgold]

match is unbettable

PASS

[frugalgambler]

Wawrinka should hire Davydenko as a consultant pronto. Maybe Davydenko can be disguised as Wawrinka Big Mama style and sub for him.

More seriously, I think Wawrinka can get a set or even two off Nadal. I am thinking the 1st and/or 2nd set bet. If Nadal races to a 2-0 lead, I am afraid Wawrinka will fall apart just as Roger did. Wawrinka's backhand is a lot more powerful than Roger's, but Nadal will still grind him out, eventually.

[tipsadontlikehim]

BTW, shari, WTF was with the line on that match last night? Is Nadal typically that cheap against Fed? That match was a joke -- Fed looked like he was 60 years old compared to Nadal.

How could Stan be +434 vs. Rafa when Fed was only +130? Even with Wawa's lack of experience, that makes zero sense.

simply because nadal lead the H2H vs stan 26 sets to love

[tipsadontlikehim]

seriously guys there is nothing to play on this match and certainly not Wawrinka ML, save your money and enjoy the final

[MiddleMan]

Stunned as I just looked up the head-2-head. Stan has never won a set against Rafa if I see correctly. Played some tough sets last year on hard courts vs. him, but still lost three TBs out of four sets. Agree with the nerves part of playing your first Grand Slam Final. I can see a couple tight sets, but he if Stan falls down 0-2, could finish with a whimper in a 3rd set. As usual, I will probably look deeper on some props rather than forcing a play on the total or games spread.

If it's props what you're after, taking over 11.5 aces @ $2.07 w Sportsbet and under 11.5 aces with Centrebet for $2.25.

[MiddleMan]

If you were coaching Wawrinka, what would you tell him for the Final?

I'd tell him to play mind games with Nadal. To frustrate him as much as possible Give him a taste of his own medicine. I'd mention how pivotal it is to start well against him. I'd make it clear that Nadal often finishes stronger than what he starts, so it's imperative to start well to have any chance. If you get an early lead, then this is when you frustrate him. Make him sit on your tail. Let him keep chasing you for as long as possible. Make him wait. If you go up an early break, take an injury timeout. That's what he does. Then when you go to serve, toss the ball up and catch it every now and then. When Nadal is about to serve, stop play by putting up your hand, stepping back and adjusting your clothing. Don't do this too much that you're going to get penalised, but just do it enough to frustrate him. This is what he does.

Then at any stage Nadal looks like taking back the momentum, take another injury time out. Show him you're not here to make friends. When the opportunity presents itself to smash home a winner, smash it straight at him. Just don't make it look intentional. You can't let him bully you on the court. These are all his tricks, and you have to give him a taste of his own medicine.

[InTheDrink]

match is unbettable

PASS

the fact that nadal winning 3-0 is -135 is fukkin crazy

kinda leads to the under 38.5 play right there but stan is improving so i have a hard time seeing him not win one set which would just about blow that total up

[jjgold]

If I was coaching Stan I would say go for the lines as it is the only way to beat Nadal and of course come in off some serves

[GoBlue77]

If you were coaching Wawrinka, what would you tell him for the Final?

I'd tell him to play mind games with Nadal. To frustrate him as much as possible Give him a taste of his own medicine. I'd mention how pivotal it is to start well against him. I'd make it clear that Nadal often finishes stronger than what he starts, so it's imperative to start well to have any chance. If you get an early lead, then this is when you frustrate him. Make him sit on your tail. Let him keep chasing you for as long as possible. Make him wait. If you go up an early break, take an injury timeout. That's what he does. Then when you go to serve, toss the ball up and catch it every now and then. When Nadal is about to serve, stop play by putting up your hand, stepping back and adjusting your clothing. Don't do this too much that you're going to get penalised, but just do it enough to frustrate him. This is what he does.

Then at any stage Nadal looks like taking back the momentum, take another injury time out. Show him you're not here to make friends. When the opportunity presents itself to smash home a winner, smash it straight at him. Just don't make it look intentional. You can't let him bully you on the court. These are all his tricks, and you have to give him a taste of his own medicine.

agree 100% but does stan have a little a-hole-ness in him to do this. everybody wants to be friends these days..

[frugalgambler]

Wawrinka already played a couple of very close sets last year against Nadal. Now, this is his first final so I am worried he might get rattled at the beginning. But if he finds a way to hold his serve for the first ~3 service games, I think we will get a good ballgame.

[face]

so hard to take control of the point vs. nadal
you bully him around a little bit and he just hits an amazing passing shot up the line when he's out of position
i will be ecstatic if wawrinka can win one set

[stepanekslips]

If you were coaching Wawrinka, what would you tell him for the Final?

I'd tell him to play mind games with Nadal. To frustrate him as much as possible Give him a taste of his own medicine. I'd mention how pivotal it is to start well against him. I'd make it clear that Nadal often finishes stronger than what he starts, so it's imperative to start well to have any chance. If you get an early lead, then this is when you frustrate him. Make him sit on your tail. Let him keep chasing you for as long as possible. Make him wait. If you go up an early break, take an injury timeout. That's what he does. Then when you go to serve, toss the ball up and catch it every now and then. When Nadal is about to serve, stop play by putting up your hand, stepping back and adjusting your clothing. Don't do this too much that you're going to get penalised, but just do it enough to frustrate him. This is what he does.

Then at any stage Nadal looks like taking back the momentum, take another injury time out. Show him you're not here to make friends. When the opportunity presents itself to smash home a winner, smash it straight at him. Just don't make it look intentional. You can't let him bully you on the court. These are all his tricks, and you have to give him a taste of his own medicine.

LOL at Wawrinka trying to rattle Nadal in a GS final ahahahahahahahaha!

[MiddleMan]

LOL at Wawrinka trying to rattle Nadal in a GS final ahahahahahahahaha!

What would you tell him? You're the coach, and you're sitting inside a small 5x5m room, fully secured with no way of getting out unless the locks open. When the umpire says, "Game, Set, Match, Mr. Wawrinka", the locks will detach and you are free to leave. If the umpire says, "Game, Set, Match, Mr. Nadal" it activates a bomb in the room and you die.

What do you tell him? Good bye isn't an option. If you decide to give in, then you are showing signs of weakness, and what chance does Stan have of winning if the coach doesn't have hope?

[stepanekslips]

Mate thats cheeky as fukc. Maybe tell him theres no point in you and him both dying, and well since he doesnt have a family anymore after abandoning them... ahahaha

What would you tell him? You're the coach, and you're sitting inside a small 5x5m room, fully secured with no way of getting out unless the locks open. When the umpire says, "Game, Set, Match, Mr. Wawrinka", the locks will detach and you are free to leave. If the umpire says, "Game, Set, Match, Mr. Nadal" it activates a bomb in the room and you die.

What do you tell him? Good bye isn't an option. If you decide to give in, then you are showing signs of weakness, and what chance does Stan have of winning if the coach doesn't have hope?

[Ho Le Fuk]

the fact that nadal winning 3-0 is -135 is fukkin crazy

kinda leads to the under 38.5 play right there but stan is improving so i have a hard time seeing him not win one set which would just about blow that total up

you're getting ripped. find a new book

Sun 1/26		145 R.Nadal Wins 3-0		+120
3:35AM		146 Not R.Nadal In 3 Sets		-140

with that being said, no way this goes 5. money on rafa 3-0 and a little on rafa 3-1 +241 is the way to go

[jessetk313]

Anyone think this is a good bet. I am thinking of going 100 Nadal first set and 5 wawrinka plus 2.5 sets...you think wawa can finally take a set or does he get swept again and kept off the board once again by Nadal? I know wawa has never won a set against him but I see this as 3-1 Nadal wawa has to get at least one right? What do you think?

[crustyme]

i actually like wawa 1st set +250.

[broadway6]

you're getting ripped. find a new book

Sun 1/26		145 R.Nadal Wins 3-0		+120
3:35AM		146 Not R.Nadal In 3 Sets		-140

with that being said, no way this goes 5. money on rafa 3-0 and a little on rafa 3-1 +241 is the way to go

agree . rafa 3-2 is +569. doesn't seem likely.

[QuangX]

Warwinka plus the spread, or prop bet tie breaker? My book doesn't carry these line so, I will pass for the AO final.

[ramones951]

What's the play

[shari91]

Whew made it home in time! No bet for me so far... going to see if I can get something decent live. Good luck everyone!!