I like my girl Cibulkova +140 today against Halep

[MagicDiceFlow]

My girl Cibulkova has made my good money this year as a dog and I am not bucking that trend tonight. This match should be close to a pickem and to get her at +140 right now is a opportunity not to be missed. Cibulkova is playing the best tennis of her career and Halep is a player that she can definitely beat. The type of players that give Cibulkova problems are heavy hitters and players with a strong serve which Halep is not. Although Cibulkova did beat Sharapova the other day, that is more of a testament on this woman's incredible form right now.

Halep is more of a grinder that doesnt hit with much power but thrives more on placement and errors by the opponent. She's great on clay and has been solid on other surfaces as well but I believe her style is due for a letdown on this surface. As I mentioned earlier in our Berdych thread yesterday, to be successful this deep at the Australian, you will need some good amount of power on this surface. That was the reason why Ferrer couldnt beat Berdych yesterday.

On clay , you can win with that grinding high topspin/low pace style but on hardcourts, players with booming groundstrokes will eventually blow you off the court due to how fast the ball travels after it hits the surface. Powerful groundstrokes are Cibulkova's forte and I can seeing her ending a lot of rallies tonight with that booming forehand of hers.

Not going large on this one but Cibulkova is definitely worth a few units at +140. She has a 50/50 chance of winning this match in my opinion.



Best of Luck

[w@lt]

I think that is a good, fair analysis.

[face]

[bruceBRUCEbruce]

leaning toward over 2.5 sets @ +135

[poet]

Wrong on many levels. First off, Halep has plenty of power. She was an unlucky rain delay away from making the semis at the US Open. Next, if you think Cibul only struggle against heavy hitters check her head to head with the likes of Radwanska 1-5, I think.

[MagicDiceFlow]

leaning toward over 2.5 sets @ +135

That's a good number at +135. The only over I see are Over 21.5 and its set at -110.

Good Luck

[MagicDiceFlow]

Wrong on many levels. First off, Halep has plenty of power. She was an unlucky rain delay away from making the semis at the US Open. Next, if you think Cibul only struggle against heavy hitters check her head to head with the likes of Radwanska 1-5, I think.

No way. If you watch enough of Halep matches , she is definitely not a power hitter. If you watched her match against Jankovic, she was getting blown away by Jankovic's power in that second set but the Serb killed herself with the total mental meltdown and all unforced errors in the third.

If you also look at Cibulkova's matches against Halep, she has dominated her in the wins. Both straight sets win in dominating fashion while her loss to Halep was highly contested.

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't think Cibulkova played especially well against Sharapova. Both served terribly. Both were barely winning half the points on their 1st serve. Maria made a ton of errors. I think a side is tough. I took Halep +1.5 sets as part of a parlay. She could well win, but I don't think she does it in straights and that was the best bet I saw on the women's side to help me parlay up today. Good luck ... in 3.

[MagicDiceFlow]

I'm not saying that Halep's game isnt admirable because it definitely is and I love her style on clay.

I'm just saying that she is due for a letdown on this surface and Cibulkova has a 50/50 chance of winning this match due to her strength in groundstrokes thus I am going with the value in +140.

[frugalgambler]

No way. If you watch enough of Halep matches , she is definitely not a power hitter. If you watched her match against Jankovic, she was getting blown away by Jankovic's power in that second set but the Serb killed herself with the total mental meltdown and all unforced errors in the third.

If you also look at Cibulkova's matches against Halep, she has dominated her in the wins. Both straight sets win in dominating fashion while her loss to Halep was highly contested.

The thing is MDF, all of their three h2h matches were played before Halep found her winning formula, i.e. before last year's claycourt season. So I would not read into those scorelines too much. I think this is uncharted territory for both of these chicks, but Halep has been winning a lot of matches last year against non top-6 players. I am still liking Halep -2.5 although it is hard to go against your opinion.

[toga toga]

Both of these players are underrated - but probably not for much longer. Nevertheless, I am leaning toward Halep. I prefer her game on these courts. Just a slight lean, but I think whomever wins, they have a chance to win it all- likely as an underdog against the remaining players.

[poet]

No way. If you watch enough of Halep matches , she is definitely not a power hitter. If you watched her match against Jankovic, she was getting blown away by Jankovic's power in that second set but the Serb killed herself with the total mental meltdown and all unforced errors in the third.

If you also look at Cibulkova's matches against Halep, she has dominated her in the wins. Both straight sets win in dominating fashion while her loss to Halep was highly contested.

All those matches were before Halep became Halep, so they don't count in my book. And she's beaten plenty of power players in the last year, beating Stosur, Bartoli, Ivanovich, Kvitova. You are spreading bad/wrong information just to make your side of the argument stronger, which, to me, is a big no no.

[MagicDiceFlow]

The thing is MDF, all of their three h2h matches were played before Halep found her winning formula, i.e. before last year's claycourt season. So I would not read into those scorelines too much. I think this is uncharted territory for both of these chicks, but Halep has been winning a lot of matches last year against non top-6 players. I am still liking Halep -2.5 although it is hard to go against your opinion.

Go with your gut instinct Frugal because that second guessing regret is a bitch. I just see this match totally differently than what the books are seeing here.

Best of luck regardless of who you choose.

[frugalgambler]

All those matches were before Halep became Halep, so they don't count in my book. And she's beaten plenty of power players in the last year, beating Stosur, Bartoli, Ivanovich, Kvitova. You are spreading bad/wrong information just to make your side of the argument stronger, which, to me, is a big no no.

I think that is a bit harsh and uncalled for, poet.

[stepanekslips]

Halep wins easily. Only thing Im worried about is the two bagels and annhilation the Munchkin baked up against CSN and Voegele.

[MagicDiceFlow]

I don't think Cibulkova played especially well against Sharapova. Both served terribly. Both were barely winning half the points on their 1st serve. Maria made a ton of errors. I think a side is tough. I took Halep +1.5 sets as part of a parlay. She could well win, but I don't think she does it in straights and that was the best bet I saw on the women's side to help me parlay up today. Good luck ... in 3.

That's some crazy juice on the Halep +1.5 sets. Hope Cibulkova wins in three then so we both cash.

GL

[Bet10Heinekens]

Cibulkova wins in 3 sets and everybody is happy

[lucasdawg]

over a good play here?

[frugalgambler]

Cibulkova wins in 3 sets and everybody is happy

As long as the scoreline reads 0-6 7-6 6-4 I am happy too, LOL.

[GoBlue77]

i really want to take cibulkova but just can't pull the trigger here

[addictedto]

I am with Halep too, all these + odds which you guys refer to well they are nothing - bookies released them just because of Domi's win against Sharapova. Otherwise the odds would have been 3.00 for Domi here. But this win was nothing special since we all know Masha is back from injury and she was not playing her best tennis yet. So I don't think the Domi odds represent any value at all. Halep is hungry for wins and titles and fighting with top 5 both on the court and in the WTA ranking. 2 straight sets win for Halep if you ask me.

[matt1216]

it's weird, my trends for this match are exactly the same that Berdych had vs ferrer.... Lol

Halep rolls I think, but good luck MDF

[Hardcoar]

I'm not saying that Halep's game isnt admirable because it definitely is and I love her style on clay.

I'm just saying that she is due for a letdown on this surface and Cibulkova has a 50/50 chance of winning this match due to her strength in groundstrokes thus I am going with the value in +140.

Please explain your concept of being "due for a letdown".

[MagicDiceFlow]

Our girl takes the first set 6-3. Halep getting an onslaught of those Cibulkova groundstrokes like I predicted. I knew Halep shouldnt have been a -160 favorite here. Even if Halep comes back and wins this, we got more than a 50/50 chance and money's worth.

This match will be decided on Cibulkova's racquet. The only way Cibulkova is losing this match is if she unforce errors herself to death. Halep does not have enough pace on her shots to control these rallies and the onslaught of groundstrokes from the slovakian.

[w@lt]

Fuk. Cibu looks good. Wish I wasn't on the other side : /

[Zirek]

I have Cibulkova on -3.5 games here at 3.20 odds COME ON!!! FINISH THIS!

[MagicDiceFlow]

I have Cibulkova on -3.5 games here at 3.20 odds COME ON!!! FINISH THIS!

Nice bet ....c'mon Cibu bring home the bacon for us!

[stepanekslips]

I b mad surprised if Halep loses mon.

[pattymayo]

always appreciate your insight MDF.

cheers

[lucasdawg]

well played MDF

[MagicDiceFlow]

always appreciate your insight MDF.

cheers

No prob Patty, cheers and good luck on your bets.

[dlw902]

Halep is Garbage.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Cibu blowing Halep off the court now .....I love it

[boss_of_um]

Barely got the Pocket Rocket bet in on time. Thank goodness!

[MagicDiceFlow]

Please explain your concept of being "due for a letdown".

I was trying to warn the Halep bettors that she is not that good as she looks on paper on this surface. She was bound to have a game where someone exposes her weakness on this surface.