+958 at 5 dimes. Sure Dimitrov cannot be trusted but he has always played Rafa tough and now Rafa is hurting. Blisters don't go away in a day and those sores are likely to open up again. Nish could have easily won that match if he didn't choke, again and again. Dimitri is the heavy underdog here with nothing to lose and is better than Nish IMOP. He will probably get tight a few times in this match but I fully expect him to win. I put 300 on Dimitri and would put more if I had the balls.
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Nishikori didn't choke, he was already playing above expectation. If he was playing "just good" he wouldn't have had any tie breakers. Dimitrov dosnt have the lateral movement nadal has. Dimitrov can hit some amazing baseline shots but he's just not consistant enough. Nadal will also expose that backhand of Dimitrov. is there value? Yes, just a little bit due to the possibility that he's hiding a ankle injury, and the blisters becoming more of a problemComment -
I disagree, Matt. Dmitri's game has always given Rafa trouble. In three matches he has taken three sets off Rafa. Nish, on the other hand, only one set off Rafa in 6 matches. Add to that Rafa's injuries, and Dimitri playing the spoiler and you have all the makings of an upset. What I saw during Rafa's last match was a guy on the ropes and I think it had less to do with how Nish was playing and more to do with how Rafa was/is feeling. Can he recover by tomorrow, maybe, but my gut tells me he won't.Comment -
You do have to factor in that not many players convert their first QF to the next step of making a SF which is a HUGE deal. Before this stage, it was a pipe dream - now the reality of making a semi or final weighs heavy on many a young player in this spot. Also have to weigh in heavily on Dimitrov's ability mentally to grind through five sets. That's what Rasheed has prepped him for, but is he ready against perhaps the most mentally tough player on tour? Best of 3 and taking one set is one thing ... best of five, taking three? He has to prove that and that is easier said than done.
I think the blister is the big problem for Rafa, but having played through it once and practicing the next day with it - will help. Nishikori played very well yesterday - he would have beaten probably 90% of the players on tour with that sort of effort, don't short change what he was doing. Rafa certainly helped him at times, but Nishikori was hitting some great shots and running down a lot of balls. That's one thing Dimitrov doesn't do as well yet where Rafa can exploit him I believe.Comment -
I think Dimitrov can actually beat Nadal. He is serving out of his mind and his ground game is the best its ever been.Comment -
Not a chance.
One handed backhanders like Dimitrov, Federer, Gasquet, etc are troubled by that excess topspin forehand of Nadal's. That's why all of them get pawned by the spaniard. They cant pound that backhand like they are normally used to with the high bounce thus every backhand shot turns into a weak defensive shot.
Bad bet in my opinion, you're giving free money to the books.Comment -
Dimitrov has taken a set off Nadal every time they have played, and he has only gotten better since every meeting. A quick start tomorrow and Rafa will be in trouble (Or I make guaranteed $$$ from hedging)Comment -
So if he takes a set off him tomorrow, he loses 3-1?
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I just realized, the last 1H BH players to have taken 3 sets over Rafa on hardcourt are probably Youzhny in 2006 and Gonzalez in 2007. Even since this date Roger never done it
The same Youzhny beating Rafa 6/1 6/0 in Chennai final...wondering what was his secret 
1 H BH players have terrible records vs Rafa on clay and hardcourt, that's sick! even the best ones Gasquet and Wawrinka... all this to say: GOOD LUCK GRIGOR !
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This is purely a situational play based on what I'm seeing and, BTW, when Fed was younger (like Dimitri is now) he gave Rafa plenty of trouble on the hard courts with his one handed backhand. An upset is looming...Comment -
Why would you try to get the value and then hedge, when you can go with the safer options - Dimi to take a set or the +7.5 Games which should hit.Comment -
You're talking about the greatest player of all-times who had years of experience on Rafa even at a younger age and Rafa when he was not an all-court threat though.
BTW, this is a fantastic thread. I like the interaction people are showing here ... like real talk and not just the usual SBR BS!
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If you want to compare, just let you know, Roger beat Nadal only 2 times on outdoor Hardcourt, one time in 2005 when Rafa lead 2 sets to love before losing in 5, and one time in 2012 Indian Wells.
The other times (4 times) were indoors which is worst conditions for Nadal's game
Just saying
but now the odds of Dimitrov are very high so if you think it is worth a bet, go for it
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value? kinda. but nadal wipes the floor with him in the end. blisters or not.Comment -
Bottom line Nadal rarely loses'
So there is no valueComment -
come on guys nishikori played well last night but choked several times on all the big points. serving for the 3rd set was pathetic. rafa just stood there while nishikori double faulted then choked on 2 easy put aways.
love rooting for dimitrov. he has the talent to beat anyone, but odds are he chokes as well.Comment -
Guys, this is a hunch based on over two decades of watching tennis. Rafa is as tough as they come but he is also as superstitious, obsessive (OCD?, have you not noticed his butt picking habit?) as they come. The tape on his hand for the blisters, the adjustment to his game, all this really throws him off (mentally as much as physically). Now EP thinks an extra day will help him get used to all this, but I don't. (And we haven't even mentioned the talent level of his opponent) Anyway, we will see who is right. Best of luck, whatever you decide.Comment -
The thread wasn't about who is gonna win (Nadal is favorite, of course), but if Dimi got value. He was +958 and now dropped to +705. I think poet was right.
I also saw some value today. Took the bet when it was +800 and also Dimi +2.5 sets +117.
It's really good when threads develop with good opinions and non-agressive posts like this. Keep sharing your thoughts poet.Comment -
dmitrov is a huge choker
how can he win???
has won like one big match everComment -
Nadal will out hit Dmitrov and out last him. The man from Japan could not have played better and he was sent packing. Nadal will wear this future star down and dispose of him. No shame intended but to beat the champ one must have all the goods and Dmitrov still needs a little tutelage. I also think Nadal will neutralize the first serve tonight that has been such a asset to Dmitrov. Nadal in four setsComment -
Special situations will continue to come up through out the rest of the season. You might hit one or 2 but you will lose 15 or more. Nadal last year when he got tired had trouble generating the huge english on the ball. (Foggy match comes to mind) Foggy was playing out of his mind but Nadal was able to hang in there until Foggy stumbled. That was a 3 set match. This is 5. That crazy Russian almost lost it last match. You could see it on his face a few times. If Dimitov gets ahead and Nadal rallies he will lose it(temper)!!! If he gets behind and is getting out classed, he will lose it(temper)!!!Comment -
think he takes one set thats the best play hereComment -
rooting for baby Fed to pull off the stunnerComment -
I think Nadal is being kinda stupid continuing to play. I know its a Grand Slam but if his cuts get infected he will miss a WHOLE lot of tennis.Comment -
How will Nadal neutralize this serve? By doing his thing - staying 5 meters behind baseline? 220 km server heading your way. Dimi is btw number 5 in total aces in the tournament. Otherwise I do think Nadal will play the whole match to Dimi's backhand and question here is how Dimi will handle the topspin to his one-handed backhand and whether his backhand will be stable and on high level today.Comment -
Bulgur's tasty and healthy!Comment -
Common don't be silly now what are the odds both nadal and djokovic lose in the qf. If joker won yesterday then this could nadal losing could be a slight possibilityComment
