EP36's Fuzzy Tennis Balls

**zec** · 08-15-14, 11:53 AM

I saw a tip from the guy who bet under 22.5 because Wawrinka would destroy Bennie, lol, I guess he'll take the money and shut up

**riffraff24** · 08-15-14, 12:34 PM

dammit fuknini

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-15-14, 12:58 PM

Seems to find one player every week who I cannot win with. Fade him. He wins. Back him and this.

**SSVIR** · 08-15-14, 01:08 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Seems to find one player every week who I cannot win with. Fade him. He wins. Back him and this.

Youhzny has made me his bitch. Probably 0-8 and down 30 units on that damn guy.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-15-14, 04:37 PM

Official today. No Del Potro @ the USO.

**GoBlue77** · 08-15-14, 04:47 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Official today. No Del Potro @ the USO.

he was just at disneyworld tho

http://the-slice.com/2014/08/del-potro-visits-disney/

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-15-14, 06:58 PM

More troubling is that Rafa delayed a decision that was supposed to be announced today on whether or not he will make it. I'm shocked that Federer is +750 for the USO right now with Djokovic at +130 and Murray +450.

I would almost be tempted to take Federer today, but I'm a draw whore. I gotta see it before I put my money down. Thinking this is the year to take some shots on the "mid" range prices that are going to offer huge profits potentially like Raonic +2500.

Really feels like this is going to be the most open Grand Slam on the men's side in as long as I can remember.

**sluggy1616** · 08-15-14, 07:16 PM

Hey Dude. If you have time to answer I'd appreciate it.

Tennis to me is a shit show the first 3 or 4 months of the season due to players not being in form so I'd like to have soccer or hoops or maybe even football to bet on.

What would you recommend as the easier option to start with or should I just stick with the tennis?

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-15-14, 07:29 PM

I actually think tennis the first half of the year is probably much better than the last half when bodies are broken down and motivation gets low due to the grind for a lot.

I love me some College Basketball, so I couldn't hate on that.

**sluggy1616** · 08-15-14, 07:34 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I actually think tennis the first half of the year is probably much better than the last half when bodies are broken down and motivation gets low due to the grind for a lot.

I love me some College Basketball, so I couldn't hate on that.

Thanks!! Tried to give you more points. SBR system wouldn't let me

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-15-14, 08:23 PM

It's cool. This year has been worse than any in recent memory as far as post-Wimbledon form of the supposed top dawgs. Usually you still get good performances during the summer hard court swing, but with Nadal injured, Djokovic distracted and Murray woefully out of form - the real top dawg right now is Federer. Only guy who has shown up all year long. Only a couple tiournaments where he failed to make a deep run. I said it somewhere else, if anyone deserves to win the USO, it's Roger. I'd love to see it.

I really think this USO could be ripe for one of the young guys to step up and get theirs ... or for the old guard to maybe get one of his last.

**mrlif1** · 08-16-14, 12:22 PM

Didn't know you were a NCAAB guy. My favorite betting sport as well.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-16-14, 12:50 PM

Yeah I bet 2nd halves mostly using a little formula to calculate possessions and then hoping to guess right on the Over/Under.

**mrlif1** · 08-16-14, 01:06 PM

1 halves for me. Use kenpom to find fast tempo, efficient offenses against weaker teams. Betting o/u's is sick shiit indeed, but I did know you were a glutton for punishment. Lol.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-16-14, 05:09 PM

8.16.14
WTA Cincinnati: Ivanovic +1.5 sets @ -170

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-16-14, 07:12 PM

2014 Season Overall Profit: +2.05
Izzle pizzle w/Ana. Sharapova finally got herself dug in a hole she's not getting out of. Her serve is so schizo and this week it's been schizo bad even though she had found ways to win.

**jjgold** · 08-16-14, 07:48 PM

Ivanovic with massive choke job currently

She will lose this match

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-16-14, 07:51 PM

Wow no kidding, I quit paying attention. Last I had see it was 5-3 and she was close to a BP on Sharapova's serve. Guess typical WTA.

**matt1216** · 08-17-14, 12:43 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

More troubling is that Rafa delayed a decision that was supposed to be announced today on whether or not he will make it. I'm shocked that Federer is +750 for the USO right now with Djokovic at +130 and Murray +450.

I would almost be tempted to take Federer today, but I'm a draw whore. I gotta see it before I put my money down. Thinking this is the year to take some shots on the "mid" range prices that are going to offer huge profits potentially like Raonic +2500.

Really feels like this is going to be the most open Grand Slam on the men's side in as long as I can remember.

Fed will have gone to two finals In a row.. If he gets in to trouble with anybody early in the tournament, I'm pretty sure he won't have gas in the tank to win it all... Think about it While Djoker is not in the best of form, he is resting. Anderson is solid when he is on, he is resting. Tsonga, is resting.... A lot of guys were smart by dumping this tournament or the one in Canada... I don't see Fed being able to make it deep in 3 tournaments in a row.

**SirtySree** · 08-17-14, 12:59 AM

Originally posted by matt1216

Fed will have gone to two finals In a row.. If he gets in to trouble with anybody early in the tournament, I'm pretty sure he won't have gas in the tank to win it all... Think about it While Djoker is not in the best of form, he is resting. Anderson is solid when he is on, he is resting. Tsonga, is resting.... A lot of guys were smart by dumping this tournament or the one in Canada... I don't see Fed being able to make it deep in 3 tournaments in a row.

It's his 4th final in a row, not 2nd. Also he has over a week to rest which is far more then enough and wouldn't be the excuse if he loses in US Open.

Also Anderson, Isner, and a few are playing in Winston Salem so will have no rest.

Rest in tennis is overated and used as a reason by ppl on here to make bets far too often.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-17-14, 10:36 AM

Yeah I don't think the fatigue argument is a good one here Matt. He'll not just have a full week of rest, but probably a full week plus a couple more days with the staggered starts in the 1st round.

Federer is the in-form guy on the men's side. Really has been all year. The most consistent guy all-around which is amazing to me, but also pretty damn awesome. His fitness seems better now than 95% of the tour.

Bringing up Tsonga is a perfect example - the guy had one deep run and he was totally gassed on a short turnaround. Now sure travel will not come into play at a Slam or anything and you normally are getting a day off in-between, but I'd be more concerned with a guy who can't keep his fitness level up for more than a week than I would be for a guy who has been winning, winning, winning and able to continue fighting for wins from week to week.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-17-14, 10:41 AM

8.17.14
ATP Cincinnati: Sock-Pospisil +1.5 sets @ -168 [Bet DSI]

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-17-14, 11:37 AM

Add...
ATP Winston-Salem: Haase +1.5 sets @ -143
ATP Winston-Salem: Kavcic @ -160

*All Winston-Salem bets unless otherwise noted will be either risking 0.5 unit on dogs or to win 0.5 in favorites

**brodie** · 08-17-14, 11:41 AM

^Like both of those EP.. honestly had to resist from taking both of those guys in the contest. it's tough with only 6 guys

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-17-14, 11:52 AM

Yeah it could be a little bit of a tricky week for the seeds. None look especially solid. Isner is the only one I kind of trust and that has more to do with his draw than anything. Anderson I would have felt good about, but he's in a tough section with a lot of similar players like Johnson and Querrey who I could see beating him if he's not motivated.

**poet** · 08-17-14, 11:59 AM

I don't get the Sock-Pospisil +1.5 sets @ -168 bet at all. If you thought they'd win a set, then why not take them at plus money? Tiebreakers are always a toss-up anyway, which, at +165, would have put you in a great position.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-17-14, 12:05 PM

I'd much rather pay that price and just need a set to cash the wager. The Bryans have been dropping sets this tournament, but winning the Super Breaker. May or may not happen here, but I like the odds of winning one set against the match personally in this position because I figure the Bryans are probably a bit more motivated here after losing to them at Wimbledon ... and this being the 1st match-up since then against the same team.

I think the Sock-Pospisil team is good enough to get a set, but the match itself is a bit of a toss-up. I don't mind risking more on some of these set bets. Some times they work, some times they don't. Personal preference.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-17-14, 12:11 PM

And they're going down in straights, oh well.

**poet** · 08-17-14, 12:16 PM

Yeah, EP, I bet on them yesterday and felt lucky to get the win. I think the pressure that comes with winning so many in a row and then the Bryan brothers being extra motivated to not only avenge their loss at Wimbledon but to end this winning streak was just a perfect storm.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-17-14, 12:21 PM

Little disappointed that they didn't put up a better fight at least, but such is the nature of the sport. Lots of guys give up when they start getting beat on.

I've really just started utilizing the 1.5 sets bets a bit more. Generally, I like to use them when the price is lower - but I think there's times to try them at a higher price like today and then yesterday with Ivanovic.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-17-14, 03:04 PM

Kavcic serve so far = weeeeeak sauce.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-17-14, 03:13 PM

Ugh. Well that's a quick death Kavcic. Haase for the 0-fer?

**matt1216** · 08-17-14, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by SirtySree

It's his 4th final in a row, not 2nd. Also he has over a week to rest which is far more then enough and wouldn't be the excuse if he loses in US Open.

Also Anderson, Isner, and a few are playing in Winston Salem so will have no rest.

Rest in tennis is overated and used as a reason by ppl on here to make bets far too often.

Thanks for clearing this up. I honestly forgot about the week rest in between tournaments. Maybe mentally all the tennis will take its toll soon. The +750 seems a bit off with the form of Djokovic and Nadal in question

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-17-14, 04:32 PM

Futures could move if Nadal announces he is out, but honestly watching some of the Final today against Ferrer - Roger still has his moments where he is prone. BTW, some people already went in blind on Roger because he's not at +550.

I continue to believe this year's USO is wide open for the first time in a long time and could go to an outsider ... unless Djokovic gets mentally tuned up, which of course knowing him and Grand Slams - is a possibility.

For me though unless the draw is terrible, Federer will be a must play future and then I'll be looking at some of the middle prices. Dimitrov. Raonic. Tsonga. Even Stan. Best futures though in Slams that people for whatever reason tend to not play - "Player to Win His Quarter" ... much more winnable. But I guess since the prices aren't large like outrights, people skip it for some reason.

And hoo-rah on Haase, way to at least get me that one win today.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-18-14, 10:43 AM

8.18.14
WTA New Haven: Peng-Svitolina Over 20.5 @ -125
ATP Winston-Salem: Melzer @ +145