THREADS! MOOOOOOAR THREEEEEEADS! My Fourth Pickin'-Thread <3

[boss_of_um]

Pliskova Ka. @ 2.23 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

Tailed here. Waking up to a winner is great!

[thebigfish]

I expected him to have recovered a lot more than seems to be the case. He is overall more consistent than Delbonis who certainly has the talent but often disappoints.

Dead and buried this bet. Congrat's on your win!

Fair enough. Thanks! Nice hit on Pliskova, was on that also.

[Hardcoar]

Brkic @ 2.98 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Copil @ 2.61 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Krajicek @ 2.8 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Buyukakcay 1:st @ 2.61 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Olivo @ 8.6 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Marti -1.5 @ 2.12 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Delic 1:st @ 3.33 – 5 units (Pinnacle)

[matt1216]

HC, can Krajicek pull it off today? I feel he has been playing well?

[Hardcoar]

He could, but I'm not sure I like the bet.

[Hardcoar]

Krajicek 1:st @ 5.29 – 4 units (Pinnacle)

[felix_felicus7]

Hi HC,

I believe you're selling yourself short in your gradings. Your 'net yield' & 'ROI' are the same amount, but are actually just your yield expressed as units & percentage. As I understand the terms, your ROI is the amount won/your initial investment (your starting bankroll for the year)? If your roll was 100units & you're up 200+ units then your ROI is FAR higher I believe.

[Hardcoar]

The ROI as used by me is net yield divided by total stake. It is not net yield divided by starting bank-roll (which would take into account exponential growth of initial bank-roll).

[Hardcoar]

Dustov @ 5.01 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

[JC1186]

Not sure if you were aware HC but Dustov fixed his last match to lose 2-0 to Stakhovsky in Newport. Set betting was smashed in and had a shit load of liquidity.

On this occasion, again set betting was shut down at a couple of bookies and Tomic 2-0 has higher than normal (albeit nothing like last time) activity on Tomic 2-0 at Betfair.

Bet365 for example has already shut down all live betting markets except for the ML which is very odd for them. This suggest they''ve been hit with a few abnormally large bets on Tomic 2-0.

My hunch in that Dustov has got the fixing bug. Don't think he has done much of it in the past, but he's had a taste for it now and even if he's just making just a few tens of thousands each time, that would still be very sweet for a struggling Challenger player.

I could be wrong but it was something I had my eye on today and picked up on.

[Cappinpicks]

Not sure if you were aware HC but Dustov fixed his last match to lose 2-0 to Stakhovsky in Newport. Set betting was smashed in and had a shit load of liquidity.

On this occasion, again set betting was shut down at a couple of bookies and Tomic 2-0 has higher than normal (albeit nothing like last time) activity on Tomic 2-0 at Betfair.

Bet365 for example has already shut down all live betting markets except for the ML which is very odd for them. This suggest they''ve been hit with a few abnormally large bets on Tomic 2-0.

My hunch in that Dustov has got the fixing bug. Don't think he has done much of it in the past, but he's had a taste for it now and even if he's just making just a few tens of thousands each time, that would still be very sweet for a struggling Challenger player.

I could be wrong but it was something I had my eye on today and picked up on.

I was on tomey 2-0, 8-1 tear ATM last 2 days

[matt1216]

JC, you see anything on that Pella G/Struvay match?..... Pella G hasn't been listed for an injury recently but he has not played since 26th may

[JC1186]

JC, you see anything on that Pella G/Struvay match?..... Pella G hasn't been listed for an injury recently but he has not played since 26th may

Pella's game is definitely made for clay. But given the form and match up is a bit of an unknown it doesn't really interest me Matt. I'm pretty selective in that respect and like to make as informed decisions as possible. If you're going to have a play it makes sense to watch the first few games to get a read.

Oh and Hardcoar, I won't pollute your thead anymore than that. Don't get your knickers in a knot.

[matt1216]

Pella's game is definitely made for clay. But given the form and match up is a bit of an unknown it doesn't really interest me Matt. I'm pretty selective in that respect and like to make as informed decisions as possible. If you're going to have a play it makes sense to watch the first few games to get a read.

Oh and Hardcoar, I won't pollute your thead anymore than that. Don't get your knickers in a knot.

Good call... Good luck with your plays

[felix_felicus7]

The ROI as used by me is net yield divided by total stake. It is not net yield divided by starting bank-roll (which would take into account exponential growth of initial bank-roll).

Thanks for the reply HC. My point was that yield and ROI definitely aren't the same thing & you're effectively stating in your gradings that they are. Technically ROI doesn't relate to total amount staked.

http://www.soccerwidow.com/betting-advice/betting-terminology/stake-yield-roi-investment-definitions/2/

[Hardcoar]

I would have replied sooner by the way but I hadn't visited the forum for several days.

I don't know that I do state that; I am stating that net yield is the absolute amount gained, and that ROI is the relative (to total stake, not initial investment) amount gained.

I may well be in the wrong as far as technical terms go.

[felix_felicus7]

What I mean is your 'ROI' is just your 'Net Yield' amount expressed as a percentage. To me its still just 'Yield' on the total staked.

Total stake: 3276u
Net yield: +295.849u
ROI: +9.03% (rounded)

I actually think your ROI (assuming a bankroll of 100units) is 395% so far this year. Legend.

Happy for yourself, fitguy or someone else to correct me though.

[Hardcoar]

I understand what you mean. I am not correcting you in any way – I am simply clarifying what I mean. It is absolutely just my net yield expressed as a percentage of total stake.

Expressed in those terms, I count 295%, but indeed, more imposing.

[Hardcoar]

Cornet 2-0 @ 1.675 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

[Hardcoar]

Schmiedlova -2.5 @ 2.02 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

[SSVIR]

Cornet 2-0 @ 1.675 – 10 units (Pinnacle)

Lost the 1st set TB.

Took Cornet ML. Better get her shit together.

[Kucera]

Not sure if you were aware HC but Dustov fixed his last match to lose 2-0 to Stakhovsky in Newport. Set betting was smashed in and had a shit load of liquidity.

On this occasion, again set betting was shut down at a couple of bookies and Tomic 2-0 has higher than normal (albeit nothing like last time) activity on Tomic 2-0 at Betfair.

Bet365 for example has already shut down all live betting markets except for the ML which is very odd for them. This suggest they''ve been hit with a few abnormally large bets on Tomic 2-0.

My hunch in that Dustov has got the fixing bug. Don't think he has done much of it in the past, but he's had a taste for it now and even if he's just making just a few tens of thousands each time, that would still be very sweet for a struggling Challenger player.

I could be wrong but it was something I had my eye on today and picked up on.

Can you check on Betfair if something similar is happening today with Gonzalez-Donskoy match? Odds on Gonzalez went from 2.12 to 1.50 on Pinnacle...

[SSVIR]

Lost the 1st set TB.

Took Cornet ML. Better get her shit together.

Cornet is getting drubbed now. Dammit.

[Hardcoar]

No unusual volumes on Gonzalez–Donskoy as far as Betfair is concerned. The line movement is significant but not particularly suspect.

[felix_felicus7]

I understand what you mean. I am not correcting you in any way – I am simply clarifying what I mean. It is absolutely just my net yield expressed as a percentage of total stake.

Expressed in those terms, I count 295%, but indeed, more imposing.

Certainly is HC! Yeah, I made an error - 295% from last grading is correct, but I can see you prefer your established measures.

Strange effort from Cornet - usually one of the more 'dependable' players.

[fitguy67]

since last update...surprisingly good numbers...
hit-mishit: 6-11
netted= +3.35u...vs. risked= 127u....yield= +2.64%

bringing new totals to something like
hits=293
mishits=377
netted=299.20u
risked= 3403u
yield= 8.792%

summary: sun is still shining in HC Pickland...

come bak and correct this post...and post some new plays for us degens!!!

[Hardcoar]

I appreciate it, but the reason I haven't been posting any more the past few days is that Pinnacle is closing my account. As a result, I haven't been able to place any bets since, and I cannot post a bet I have not made.

I will be going Betfair shortly, from the looks of it.

[fitguy67]

faaakkk....us (the poor good guys trying to make a few dinero) vs. them (the bastid books who don't like it when a few of "us" actually succeed at it)...

consider matchbook as well as betfair...between them, u should be able to meet/beat the best that pinny/laddy/sportingbet/willy can offer (but as exchanges they have no interest in hobbling winnerz as all plays are vs. other players)

pinny hassling someone surprises me a bit tho...they've always been the most winner-friendly book

[Hardcoar]

They didn't close my account because of my performance afaik. Supposedly it's because I made a complaint of a wager that was settled incorrectly. After providing the evidence they still wouldn't budge. Eventually they did refund me (thankfully), but then told me to make a complete withdrawal and f*ck of basically.