Matt's updated picks

[fitguy67]

Why are u picking Ghedin matt? Grassi's performance seems a bit better?

the answer, my friend...is living in the odds (aka. the price)...if it were +100/-100 or a 2.00/2.00 situation <which it never is> you'd be right to focus on who's more likely (ie. >50%) to win...as you grow as a sports bettor, you'll come to care less about "whoozgonnawin" and more about "where the value is"

at 2.25, taking this bet over the long haul you'd be a winner as long as Ghedin wins just 44.45% (=1/2.25) of the time...

so betting on Ghedin doesn't mean that Matt must think Ghedin is "likely" to win...which isn't true...he's probably "unlikely" (ie. has less than a 50% chance) to win in fact...but as long as his chance is greater than 44.45% to win...whatever happens today--win or lose today...taking plays like this will make money over the long-term for you...this is what people mean by placing a "value" bet on a dog...not likely to win tonight...but over the haul, it'll win at a percentage > 1/Euro-odds...cuz the bigger payouts on the smaller number of wins works out in your favor

getting in the habit of taking bets like this are like "eating spinach" for your account...not fun today or tomorrow betting on things you don't really expect to win...but as the months and years go by you're glad you do this...cuz there are always enough "surprise wins" with the "extra-bonus payouts" when they do, to work out very positive

[matt1216]

the answer, my friend...is living in the odds (aka. the price)...if it were +100/-100 or a 2.00/2.00 situation <which it never is> you'd be right to focus on who's more likely (ie. >50%) to win...as you grow as a sports bettor, you'll come to care less about "whoozgonnawin" and more about "where the value is"

at 2.25, taking this bet over the long haul you'd be a winner as long as Ghedin wins just 44.45% (=1/2.25) of the time...

so betting on Ghedin doesn't mean that Matt must think Ghedin is "likely" to win...which isn't true...he's probably "unlikely" (ie. has less than a 50% chance) to win in fact...but as long as his chance is greater than 44.45% to win...whatever happens today--win or lose today...taking plays like this will make money over the long-term for you...this is what people mean by placing a "value" bet on a dog...not likely to win tonight...but over the haul, it'll win at a percentage > 1/Euro-odds...cuz the bigger payouts on the smaller number of wins works out in your favor

getting in the habit of taking bets like this are like "eating spinach" for your account...not fun today or tomorrow betting on things you don't really expect to win...but as the months and years go by you're glad you do this...cuz there are always enough "surprise wins" with the "extra-bonus payouts" when they do, to work out very positive

Yes, pretty much what I saw. I didn't see any side with the advantage. I was wrong today. Focusing more on my other thread right now.

[matt1216]

Alright guys. Packing in the challenger shit. Waiting for ATP.... Good luck to you all. I'll be in my other thread lots.

[Jago2008]

Alright guys. Packing in the challenger shit. Waiting for ATP.... Good luck to you all. I'll be in my other thread lots.

I agree bro, "enough with Challenger tennis" is what I'm saying; maybe an occasional spot play within the next two months, but it's borderline ridiculous some of these outcomes.

Best of luck man.

[fitguy67]

I'll be in my other thread lots.

Mattay, http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-bet...rts-plays.html

this looks like your new watering hole for the non-tennis time being, right?

[addictedto]

Pity you are leaving the tennis betting Matt. I still think there are games in challengers where we can make profit. So many guys who are defending their points from 2012 (like Moriya and Donskoy defending their titles) and others who are trying to make it to the Australian Open main draws. Well, I'll continue with tennis, some guys have proved they play serious.

[matt1216]

Not that I'm leaving for good guys. I may post occasionally just here and there until the new ATP season starts up again. There's where I made the real cash

[poet]

Are you gonna give us a final tally on the tennis bets, Matt?

[matt1216]

Are you gonna give us a final tally on the tennis bets, Matt?

Yes. Give me 30 mins

[poet]

the answer, my friend...is living in the odds (aka. the price)...if it were +100/-100 or a 2.00/2.00 situation <which it never is> you'd be right to focus on who's more likely (ie. >50%) to win...as you grow as a sports bettor, you'll come to care less about "whoozgonnawin" and more about "where the value is"

at 2.25, taking this bet over the long haul you'd be a winner as long as Ghedin wins just 44.45% (=1/2.25) of the time...

so betting on Ghedin doesn't mean that Matt must think Ghedin is "likely" to win...which isn't true...he's probably "unlikely" (ie. has less than a 50% chance) to win in fact...but as long as his chance is greater than 44.45% to win...whatever happens today--win or lose today...taking plays like this will make money over the long-term for you...this is what people mean by placing a "value" bet on a dog...not likely to win tonight...but over the haul, it'll win at a percentage > 1/Euro-odds...cuz the bigger payouts on the smaller number of wins works out in your favor

getting in the habit of taking bets like this are like "eating spinach" for your account...not fun today or tomorrow betting on things you don't really expect to win...but as the months and years go by you're glad you do this...cuz there are always enough "surprise wins" with the "extra-bonus payouts" when they do, to work out very positive

Love the explanation, fitguy 67. Seeing as you are so knowledgable, I just messaged you with a question regarding "value". Thanks in advance.

[matt1216]

YTD Final Tally- new season Will be January:

ATP: 86-97 -2450$
Chall: 99-120 -3500$
Large: 70-35 +18350$

took ok a bit of a hit on challengers and ATP the last 30 days or so. Hopefully we can build on this again next year.

I started this thread on a 600$ deposit. I took 600$ up to just over 46000$ I withdrew 19000$ and lost a fair bit with all these challengers. I had a nice ride. Now time to learn from the experience and move on.


Good luck guys

[chs13021986]

how long was it? took the entire year to go to 46 K? I hope I could do this well. I had made several deposits of $100 and then $200 as i bankrupt the $100 BR. Now I am going to deposit $800 and try to build up from there, because I lost passion for betting since I had to bet 3-5% of my BR ($3 to $5)

Hopefully now with $24 unit I can reach the top

Thanks for your picks this year mate. Unfortunately I only tailed you when u had bad streak as most of the games were challengers and they suck.

I will tail u next year starting in my backyard ( Australia)

[matt1216]

how long was it? took the entire year to go to 46 K? I hope I could do this well. I had made several deposits of $100 and then $200 as i bankrupt the $100 BR. Now I am going to deposit $800 and try to build up from there, because I lost passion for betting since I had to bet 3-5% of my BR ($3 to $5)

Hopefully now with $24 unit I can reach the top

Thanks for your picks this year mate. Unfortunately I only tailed you when u had bad streak as most of the games were challengers and they suck.

I will tail u next year starting in my backyard ( Australia)

hey man,it is possible to get that bankroll up. You need some badass luck sometimes tho. You need to hammer a couple plays. If you follow your unit size you will be ok but don't to the same size bet for every match. You won't make that much coin. What you have to do first off is concentrate. Be selective. Think "what ifs"... What I mean is think of all the variables on the matches. There's a reason why my Large Plays were very successful. Sometimes try to predict the odds befor you look at your book... This can give simple signs away. If a play looks to good to be true.... It is.
I started my deposit near the beginning of the Asian swing.I rode Raonic and Gilles Simon for a few tourneys. They drew me some good cash. WTA side I rode Jovanoski and Bouchard for a few weeks as well.
Man, once you get that bankroll up it's not too difficult, but you do have to stay disciplined. If you find yourself tired or not having a feel for a match, YOU TAKE THE DAY off. Mondays/Tuesdays for whatever reason are historically bad for me. Ever since I started wagering. I know it's beating a dead horse but it's all about the dicipline. Once I had the bankroll instead of 5 wagers I would have 1 or 2 easier to track. I wish I was a little smarter with my cash. I did withdraw 19,000 over 6 weeks but it took awhile. 6-8 buisness days for each of my cheques to get here. My dicipline is getting better but I think i will approach things differently as well. It was Stressful some days. You have 44,000 sitting in your acount yet I was waiting like 8 days for my cheques...I was getting ansey.

My advice. Stop with the 100$ deposit. There's to much pressure on you right away. I learned this the hard way. Deposit 1000$ if u can, it allows u a mistake or 2. Make 100$ wagers to start. Be very selective. Sometimes u have to make a solid dog bet or two to get u over that hump. It can be done.


sorry if I'm all over the place. I feel like I could write a book on the days during my run. I hope to have another next year.

[tipsadontlikehim]

that was impressive matt

indeed that's a lot of stress i know what you mean, a lot of energy with no guarantee of result

good luck for next year

[sluggy1616]

hey man,it is possible to get that bankroll up. You need some badass luck sometimes tho. You need to hammer a couple plays. If you follow your unit size you will be ok but don't to the same size bet for every match. You won't make that much coin. What you have to do first off is concentrate. Be selective. Think "what ifs"... What I mean is think of all the variables on the matches. There's a reason why my Large Plays were very successful. Sometimes try to predict the odds befor you look at your book... This can give simple signs away. If a play looks to good to be true.... It is.
I started my deposit near the beginning of the Asian swing.I rode Raonic and Gilles Simon for a few tourneys. They drew me some good cash. WTA side I rode Jovanoski and Bouchard for a few weeks as well.
Man, once you get that bankroll up it's not too difficult, but you do have to stay disciplined. If you find yourself tired or not having a feel for a match, YOU TAKE THE DAY off. Mondays/Tuesdays for whatever reason are historically bad for me. Ever since I started wagering. I know it's beating a dead horse but it's all about the dicipline. Once I had the bankroll instead of 5 wagers I would have 1 or 2 easier to track. I wish I was a little smarter with my cash. I did withdraw 19,000 over 6 weeks but it took awhile. 6-8 buisness days for each of my cheques to get here. My dicipline is getting better but I think i will approach things differently as well. It was Stressful some days. You have 44,000 sitting in your acount yet I was waiting like 8 days for my cheques...I was getting ansey.

My advice. Stop with the 100$ deposit. There's to much pressure on you right away. I learned this the hard way. Deposit 1000$ if u can, it allows u a mistake or 2. Make 100$ wagers to start. Be very selective. Sometimes u have to make a solid dog bet or two to get u over that hump. It can be done.


sorry if I'm all over the place. I feel like I could write a book on the days during my run. I hope to have another next year.

Matt, you earned more than Germain Gigunon current ranking #240 on ATP tour. 2013 earnings $24,656. Well at least close to his earnings. Tennis is not so wonderful for the lowly ranked. Plus he most likely paid a ton to travel to different tournaments. This sports pay structure needs some reworking...

[matt1216]

Matt, you earned more than Germain Gigunon current ranking #240 on ATP tour. 2013 earnings $24,656. Well at least close to his earnings. Tennis is not so wonderful for the lowly ranked. Plus he most likely paid a ton to travel to different tournaments. This sports pay structure needs some reworking...

As u just pointed out, he probably was involved in a fix or 2 netting him probably 50K or so

[losschaser]

YTD Final Tally- new season Will be January:

ATP: 86-97 -2450$
Chall: 99-120 -3500$
Large: 70-35 +18350$

took ok a bit of a hit on challengers and ATP the last 30 days or so. Hopefully we can build on this again next year.

I started this thread on a 600$ deposit. I took 600$ up to just over 46000$ I withdrew 19000$ and lost a fair bit with all these challengers. I had a nice ride. Now time to learn from the experience and move on.


Good luck guys

So you are up $12k plus the $19k you withdrew or just $12k ?

[matt1216]

So you are up $12k plus the $19k you withdrew or just $12k ?

No its a bit messed up. I'm up 19k. I made a huge portion live wagering, at one point I had over 50k in my possession. 46k in my account 5 k cheque on the way.

[Hardcoar]

If only I were as wealthy as you!

[matt1216]

If only I were as wealthy as you!

Im not wealthy. I used the 19k to pay off bills. I finally lost the rest of the house money to those damn challenger wagers. I wish I held off a bit. It was the live wagering that hurt a bit. It was a great run tho. Hopefully there's another next year.

[losschaser]

Im not wealthy. I used the 19k to pay off bills. I finally lost the rest of the house money to those damn challenger wagers. I wish I held off a bit. It was the live wagering that hurt a bit. It was a great run tho. Hopefully there's another next year.

I have a bad casino blackjack / poker habit myself. I would be up considerably sports betting lifetime If I had stayed away from casinos.

[matt1216]

I have a bad casino blackjack / poker habit myself. I would be up considerably sports betting lifetime If I had stayed away from casinos.

Dude, do what I do. I wager from my IPhone only. I can't play any casino games from it

[losschaser]

Dude, do what I do. I wager from my IPhone only. I can't play any casino games from it

I actually meant local casinos. I dont play the online ones because they are rigged. Deposited $200 once turned out after rollover and bonus I had to clear $10k. Got it up to $2,400 with $5k to clear then dealer started pulling 5 and 6 card 21s and had 20 every single hand so I lost it all. They let you win at first but will never let it clear so you can cashout.

[matt1216]

I actually meant local casinos. I dont play the online ones because they are rigged. Deposited $200 once turned out after rollover and bonus I had to clear $10k. Got it up to $2,400 with $5k to clear then dealer started pulling 5 and 6 card 21s and had 20 every single hand so I lost it all. They let you win at first but will never let it clear so you can cashout.

ahh ya I know what your talking about. It's one of those hit your hot spot and run. I used to go a fair bit. Once I found out about sports online, I stopped going to casinos. Just a money Pitt those places are.

[poet]

If only I were as wealthy as you!

HC, you are so full of it. If you were only as wealthy as so and so... You would do what? You'd finally stop wasting your life away betting on challenger events that only a handful of people have ever heard of? Or maybe, just maybe, you'd finally do something worthwhile with your time, like working for a charitable organization, visiting sick kids at a hospital, or helping gamblers, like yourself, overcome their addiction...I don't think so. No, I think you would just increase your unit size, like the rest of us, because let's face it my friend, there is not enough units in the world to fill that gaping hole in you.

[Hardcoar]

HC, you are so full of it. If you were only as wealthy as so and so... You would do what? You'd finally stop wasting your life away betting on challenger events that only a handful of people have ever heard of? Or maybe, just maybe, you'd finally do something worthwhile with your time, like working for a charitable organization, visiting sick kids at a hospital, or helping gamblers, like yourself, overcome their addiction...I don't think so. No, I think you would just increase your unit size, like the rest of us, because let's face it my friend, there is not enough units in the world to fill that gaping hole in you.

[rankslash]

matt1216,
are you planning to start 2014 tennis season with the same bankroll as 2013 or you will use your winnings from the last months?

[matt1216]

matt1216,
are you planning to start 2014 tennis season with the same bankroll as 2013 or you will use your winnings from the last months?

Hey bud. New bankroll. I'm really looking forward to this season

[jessetk313]

Matt I can't wait for tennis to start back up and I'll def be following your thread as I did last year. Like many others on here I appreciate all the work you do. I had a question for you though. What is your bankroll to start?

[matt1216]

Matt I can't wait for tennis to start back up and I'll def be following your thread as I did last year. Like many others on here I appreciate all the work you do. I had a question for you though. What is your bankroll to start?

Last year I started 600$ in September. I had 2 x 500$ deposits in June but lost that. Probably try 1000$ to start.

[rankslash]

Let's hope for a great season, Matt!
First two months will be tough. A lot of players are out of form in January and early February. Are you planning to reduce the Challenger plays or you will stick to the same ratio as last year?

[matt1216]

I plan on making a spot wager here or there. I like the first month at times because u can grab some crazy odds on guys to win there matches. Certain guys like Andy Murray for example.how is this guy gonna move laterally after his surgery? You might find great odds on someone against him. The first month we will have to be very selective

[matt1216]

I will be playing challengers, just not nearly as much as ATP

[jessetk313]

You think this is an obtainable goal Matt, to turn 1k into 7k on tennis?

[rankslash]

You think this is an obtainable goal Matt, to turn 1k into 7k on tennis?

Of course it's possible.. you don't need Matt to answer you that.