Djokovic - Wawrinka (Over 3.5 ?)

[trayman]

What you think guys? Can Wawrinka keep his composure from the match against Murray? Or Murray was actually that bad? Djokovic may be on fire during basically the whole tournament, but man, Wawrinka looks definitely strong. I can see a close match, with Wawrinka winning a set at least.

Djokovic lost a set against Youhzny, and I think that Wawrinka is in better shape than the Russian at the moment. What's your thoughts guys?

[matt1216]

Murray had alot of unforced errors but wawrinka was as good as ive ever seen him as well. Wawrinka forced murray into alot of errors as well.While djokovic won, i believe youhzny exposed him a bit. Djokovic has been solid but he hasnt been as good as ive ever seen him. I actually think hes due for a bit of a stumble

[EaglesPhan36]

Murray was bad. Djokovic has been bored. IMO, it's a testament to Djokovic that he only slipped up the one set so far this tournament. He hasn't really had to put it in gear yet - although you saw what happened after he got pissed at fukking around in the 3rd yesterday. He fukked Youzhny up in the 4th. Having played Stan in that epic Aussie Open match, he's not going to be caught by surprise or underestimate him.

I do think Stan should win a set, but you always have to be careful about the old first timer's syndrome. Any time you have someone stepping into their first Slam semi - it can be very overwhelming. People say why? He was fine with nerves in the QF. #1, he never faced adversity - he will face some here for sure. #2, he's one step away from every tennis player's dream - a Slam Final. There are always exceptions to this syndrome, but from rookies to seasoned vets ... these spots are often very nervy.

I think he has to start fast to keep his confidence. If Djokovic comes out and rolls him in the 1st set, there will be a temptation to sulk no matter how well you have been playing for two weeks. I would be surprised but not that surprised if Wawrinka lost in straights if ya know what I mean.

[poet]

Murray was bad. Djokovic has been bored. IMO, it's a testament to Djokovic that he only slipped up the one set so far this tournament. He hasn't really had to put it in gear yet - although you saw what happened after he got pissed at fukking around in the 3rd yesterday. He fukked Youzhny up in the 4th. Having played Stan in that epic Aussie Open match, he's not going to be caught by surprise or underestimate him.

I do think Stan should win a set, but you always have to be careful about the old first timer's syndrome. Any time you have someone stepping into their first Slam semi - it can be very overwhelming. People say why? He was fine with nerves in the QF. #1, he never faced adversity - he will face some here for sure. #2, he's one step away from every tennis player's dream - a Slam Final. There are always exceptions to this syndrome, but from rookies to seasoned vets ... these spots are often very nervy.

I think he has to start fast to keep his confidence. If Djokovic comes out and rolls him in the 1st set, there will be a temptation to sulk no matter how well you have been playing for two weeks. I would be surprised but not that surprised if Wawrinka lost in straights if ya know what I mean.

So I guess you're not playing this on EP. Meanwhile, guys on the Covers betting forum are betting on the over like it's Christmas. I myself took the over 36.5 games, seems reasonable but I'm worried about Stan falling behind early. On the other hand, I've watched a lot of Djoker this summer and he has lost some of his mojo, losing to the likes of Isner. If that backhand down the line is not firing I like WaWa's chances of upsetting him.

[EaglesPhan36]

Personally if I was betting the over, I would just go with the sets and not games. Sets can go lopsided especially in this sort of setting. If you think the match goes over, then you're obviously thinking Wawrika takes a set.

People often get caught up in what guys do in tournaments outside the Grand Slams. I think you have to understand that Slams as these guys all get a bit older become more and more of the focus. Losing a semi in Cincinnati doesn't mean shit if Djokovic wins the US Open. Nadal would trade his two Summer titles in a minute for the US Open title.

Djokovic may not be the robot we have become accustomed to, but these are the tournaments where Djokovic and Nadal play their best and are the most difficult to beat because of the five set format. Honestly if it were a quarterfinal or earlier, I'd probably rate Wawrinka a little better shot - but as I said before the first time semifinalists really do often struggle to produce.

Honestly the last one I remember who did well was Del Potro in 2009 when he won the whole thing. Here's a prime example of that first timer's syndrome ... 2010 Australian Open. Tsonga makes his first Slam semi after knocking off Djokovic in five sets in the QFs. Federer crushes him in straights. Cilic made his first Semi in that tournament too, won a set off Murray and then lost pretty straight forward 6-4, 6-4, 6-2. That's kind of what I think might show for Wawrinka.

I'm still weighing options on bets for tomorrow. Looking over all the props and what not. This is the more difficult of the semis to predict IMO because of Djokovic's real lack of a tough test and Wawrinka coming in as the first timer and coming off a match in which - yes he played well, but yes - his opponent was pathetic too.

[poet]

Personally if I was betting the over, I would just go with the sets and not games. Sets can go lopsided especially in this sort of setting. If you think the match goes over, then you're obviously thinking Wawrika takes a set.

People often get caught up in what guys do in tournaments outside the Grand Slams. I think you have to understand that Slams as these guys all get a bit older become more and more of the focus. Losing a semi in Cincinnati doesn't mean shit if Djokovic wins the US Open. Nadal would trade his two Summer titles in a minute for the US Open title.

Djokovic may not be the robot we have become accustomed to, but these are the tournaments where Djokovic and Nadal play their best and are the most difficult to beat because of the five set format. Honestly if it were a quarterfinal or earlier, I'd probably rate Wawrinka a little better shot - but as I said before the first time semifinalists really do often struggle to produce.

Honestly the last one I remember who did well was Del Potro in 2009 when he won the whole thing. Here's a prime example of that first timer's syndrome ... 2010 Australian Open. Tsonga makes his first Slam semi after knocking off Djokovic in five sets in the QFs. Federer crushes him in straights. Cilic made his first Semi in that tournament too, won a set off Murray and then lost pretty straight forward 6-4, 6-4, 6-2. That's kind of what I think might show for Wawrinka.

I'm still weighing options on bets for tomorrow. Looking over all the props and what not. This is the more difficult of the semis to predict IMO because of Djokovic's real lack of a tough test and Wawrinka coming in as the first timer and coming off a match in which - yes he played well, but yes - his opponent was pathetic too.

Great point EP, about set betting versus game betting. Lost three bets in the Open that went 4 sets but didn't cover the game spread. I also bet on Stan ML against Murray but bet the over 3.5 sets instead of stan grabbing a set and lost, so I came out even in the end. Anyway, a bit of good fortune this time around. Got a bad line of 28.5 for the Djoker WaWa match at a sporstbook and hit that one hard. If they let it stand, do you think that has a good chance of hitting? I certainly hope so.

[poet]

One last point about WaWa's mindset. I'm not sure if you can compare him to a first timer (even if he is) because when he lost to Djoker in Australia he was devastated. If you watched the broadcast they talked about how he hid himself in his hotel room for 2-3 days after losing. This tells me that he won't be happy just to be there tomorrow, but will do all he can to win.

[EaglesPhan36]

It's still different though. That was a QF. This is a SF. I know it seems silly that one match further makes a big difference, but it really seems to historically. I can understand the devastation from that match. That was the match of his life and he lost.

I don't really think it's the case of where they don't show well because they're "happy to be there" ... it's just that I think the gravity of the moment and the next step gets in their head. Certainly it's different if they are going up against less experienced Slam competitors, but Wawrinka is going against the top dog.

I would be pretty surprised if there weren't at least 29 games in that one.

[Chaz22]

I m quite sure this QF / SF aspect means nothing for wawrinka. Yes, he's never been there. So what? It's not like he's pkayin Berdych...noone expects anything from him... he has no pressure. He will put it out there.4 sets absolutely. Could go whole 5, could go for a win but the crap about QF difference to SF is useless in this case

[frugalgambler]

I like Djoker 3-1 @+235 and Nadal 3-1 @+325. At least one of those should hit. Both newcomers are playing great, good enough to take a set off these two giants.

[frugalgambler]

EP36 this is a very nice angle you exposed and it is absolutely true for most of the players. First time on big stage, especially SF or Finals the vast majority of players will lay an egg. We just saw it today with Pennetta almost crying in the 2nd set when she realized she is going to lose.

[poet]

I still say Djoker is vulnerable. I guess we will see.

[EaglesPhan36]

I m quite sure this QF / SF aspect means nothing for wawrinka. Yes, he's never been there. So what? It's not like he's pkayin Berdych...noone expects anything from him... he has no pressure. He will put it out there.4 sets absolutely. Could go whole 5, could go for a win but the crap about QF difference to SF is useless in this case

It's obviously no more full proof then fading a lesser known player coming off a signature win against a top tier player - but it seems to happen quite a bit still. He's obviously playing very well and personally I am avoiding the match altogether as I feel all the different angles involved in this one involve a high amount of guess work.

Guessing if Wawrinka will not shrink on the big stage. Guessing if Djokovic will raise his level. To me, it's much more a risky play on either side or total than the other semi.

[Chaz22]

EP36 this is a very nice angle you exposed and it is absolutely true for most of the players. First time on big stage, especially SF or Finals the vast majority of players will lay an egg. We just saw it today with Pennetta almost crying in the 2nd set when she realized she is going to lose.

You cant compare women to men in tennis. Penneta is ranked way outside top50. Wawrinka knows how to play this. He wont cry either...

[frugalgambler]

You cant compare women to men in tennis. Penneta is ranked way outside top50. Wawrinka knows how to play this. He wont cry either...

Sure you can compare them. Men might not cry but they fold under pressure all the time. The only diff is that it is a best of 5, so it is easier to "steal" a set, like Youzhny did. Penneta btw is a veteran former top-10 player so she knows how to play the game. Wawrinka is playing well but I still do not think he can stretch this to a five-setter vs Djoker. Wawa actually did his best not to win the first set against Murray, but Murray refused his gifts.

[horja1]

Got a bad line of 28.5 for the Djoker WaWa match at a sporstbook and hit that one hard. If they let it stand, do you think that has a good chance of hitting? I certainly hope so.

You should not do that ... unless the bet will be cancel before the start of the match it is very possible the book will freeroll you ... if by any chance the match ends 6-1 6-2 6-2 you will lose your bet and the book will prob not cancel it ... if it goes over 28,5, the book will just cancel the bet stating obvious error ...

[poet]

Here is brief article by Matt Cronin on the Djoker match, whose daily picks can be found the US Open website. I've quite enjoyed his articles and often correct predictions. Here he echoes my exact sentiments about Djoker's game at the moment:

MEN'S SEMIFINALS
No. 1 Novak Djokovic vs. No. 9 Stanislas Wawrinka

I have not been as impressed by Djokovic’s play at this tournament as some other analysts have been. Yes, he played a fine fourth set against Mikhail Youzhny in the quarterfinals, and yes, he crushed a worn-out Marcel Granollers in the fourth round, but he still looks a little uncomfortable to me. He’s not serving with much authority, he seems to have lost confidence in his backhand down the line and while I like his newfound commitment to net charging, he’s been consistently leaving his volleys short.

I judge the Serb on his heavenly 2011 level that took him to three Slams (including the US Open) and allowed him to dominate the competition. Right now, he’s playing at about 75 percent of that level. He’s had a pretty easy draw, and because he is super-resilient, steady and has struck fear in the hearts of most of the guys in the locker room with his incredible steadiness and power, he’s been able to psyche out five straight opponents.

But Djokovic has not played very well since he lost to Rafael Nadal in five sets at Roland Garros. Yes, he came up in the clutch in the Wimbledon semis against Juan Martin del Porto, but he won that match more on guts than with skill. His hard-court summer has been humdrum: a shockingly bad third-set tiebreak defeat to Nadal at the Rogers Cup in Montreal and then a less-than-courageous loss to John Isner at the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati.

Perhaps I am quibbling too much with his game and am looking for too many dark spots rather than bright ones, but I don't hear the same cool, calm level of confidence in Djokovic’s voice that I heard back in January, when he won his fourth Australian Open.

Call me crazy, but I am sniffing an upset here, even though the Swiss Wawrinka is 1-12 against Djokovic and his sole win over the Serb came in their first meeting in 2006 when the Serb retired after the first set. Wawrinka is rightly flying high after upsets of Tomas Berdych and Andy Murray, showing he has the movement to stay with the best and the firepower to hit through them. He is serving huge, has added a very decent cross-court forehand to his searing one-handed backhand, and he isn’t getting rattled.

Clearly, Djokovic is the better all-around player, but that doesn’t mean he cannot be had by a red-hot player whom, had he kept his head, should have come out on top in his 1-6, 7-5, 6-4, 6-7, 12-10 loss to the world No. 1 in Melbourne this past January.

If this was a final, I’d take Djokovic based on big-match experience alone. But it’s a semifinal, where Wawrinka should be a bit more comfortable. The smooth shotmaker will take it to the Serb and pull off a four-set upset.

[jjgold]

What none of you have mentioned and its something I have seen with Joker more this Tourney his ground strokes seem to be more back to heavy flat hitting which he had in 2011. This year I saw saw much heavy top spin from him and balls kicking up for opponents to hammer back, of course he is still tough no matter what he does but the best Joker is lots more flat ball hitting where his opponent is on the ropes on points

[Sam_Hawkins]

Well about the article - he focused on what djoker does wrong and hasn't mentioned how wawa plays. Wawrinka defeated Murray because he went to the match with a good strategy and stuck to it very well, more importantly, executed it very well - tried to keep the rallyes as shor as possible. He took advantage of a stumble in 5th service game of Murray, which in consequence boosted his confidence AND put murray on a wobbly ground. He tried to force his own game on wawa, but was under too much pressure and basically gave one of his services away with 3 consecutive horrible UEs. That played in wawa's cards - he started pushing poor andy Before him with precise winners and managed not to let him into the match at all.

That won't work on djokovic. When murray started losing and choking, it triggered even more choking. On the other hand, wawrinka did something similar with Nole this AO, and failed not to let djoker back in the game who on the other hand god motivated by the loss of first two sets.

Imho you should read the game in its complexity, not how each player played someone totally different.

Btw: I agree with your point JJ, actually did mention it in EP's thread, too.

[daddypoker23]

ONLINE
09/06/2013
08:27 PM

[Ticket #: 148794301] STRAIGHT BET 09/07/2013 @ 09:00 AM MU [79205] NOVAK DJOKOVIC -2½+170 (NOVAK DJOKOVIC vrs STANISLAS WAWRINKA)

1000.00

1700.00

[horja1]

Matt Cronin: If this was a final, I’d take Djokovic based on big-match experience alone. But it’s a semifinal, where Wawrinka should be a bit more comfortable

Comfortable in his first GS semifinal?

[theballsflop]

ONLINE
09/06/2013
08:27 PM

[Ticket #: 148794301] STRAIGHT BET 09/07/2013 @ 09:00 AM MU [79205] NOVAK DJOKOVIC -2½+170 (NOVAK DJOKOVIC vrs STANISLAS WAWRINKA)

1000.00

1700.00

Tough beat bud

[EaglesPhan36]

Comfortable in his first GS semifinal?

Ton less pressure there than in a Final. I mean it's a big duh point. I think the whole write-up, he says if it was a Final he would take Djokovic. Although Cronin might be right today - his write-ups help some, but his picks have been about as average as any of us.

[trayman]

Golden lock as hell! Thank you all for the suggestions

[poet]

You're welcome trayman, now let's hope my over hits.

[trayman]

Right now i'm considering lucky set for Gasquet. But don't want to be too greedy

[frugalgambler]

Really weird match and a great choke job by Waw (nice call EP36). Djoko looked at times like he could not buy a winner. He either stopped juicing or stopped training hard. Nadal (if he wins) should beat him 3-0 or 3-1. Gasquet looks pretty good right now.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think we're just spoiled with Djokovic. I've said it a few times, people have this unrealistic expectation of him since his ridiculous 2011 season. Now anytime he isn't in Djokonator Mode, people think he's terrible. He played reasonably well in the 4th and 5th, but it wasn't a dominant show to push past Wawrinka in the end. I think Stan slipped some whether it was the thigh or the wear of the match overall. That again though is why Djokovic and Nadal are so tough to beat in best of fives - they may not be A+ for all five sets, but they're going to have more A level stuff in five sets than just about everyone else.

I said it in another thread, he can still beat 90% of the players on tour with his B level game like he did today. That is a testament to his skill set. Unfortunately for him, Nadal is in the 10% who will kill his B level game if Rafa plays anywhere close to what he has shown this Summer.

The day off obviously is huge for Djokovic. Unless physically he is hurting - I have a feeling that he finds that extra gear to make it a great match. I think it's absolutely killing him that Nadal is in position to resume the throne. He wants this as bad as Nadal or worse and that is why you love both guys - this is going to be a war. Let's remember too that Rafa has really faced absolutely nobody close to Djokovic's B game this tournament. His draw has been cake.

[poet]

Really weird match and a great choke job by Waw (nice call EP36). Djoko looked at times like he could not buy a winner. He either stopped juicing or stopped training hard. Nadal (if he wins) should beat him 3-0 or 3-1. Gasquet looks pretty good right now.

"Nice call EP." ?? EP didn't think the over was a good bet, the match went way over. EP didn't think WaWa had a good chance and he had a GREAT CHANCE. WaWa did choke but he also got dinged up. No one could have predicted that. Anyway, this is no knock on EP, but rather your "nice call" comment.

[EaglesPhan36]

I didn't ever say either bet wasn't good. I said I think Stan will win a set, but to be careful overall because of the first timer's syndrome. Never said it wouldn't be competitive, I just brought out that as something to look at.

End of the day as I wrote above, I thought most of the bets were pretty tough and I passed on this match.

[frugalgambler]

EP36 provided a great summary of why we should expect a choke from Stan the man. And he choked majestically not taking the crucial 2nd set which was completely on his racket and then blowing up in the 4th set. I do not buy the injury factor at all. Just an excuse to get some pity points. He did almost win but only b/c Djoker was playing like a turd by his standards. I am not at all convinced Djoker will find that extra gear on Monday. Murray was also supposed to find that gear but he did not find anything apart from apathy. Nadal did look really locked-and-loaded and Gasquet did not play badly at all.

[EaglesPhan36]

I think Murray's problem was a shitty tactical approach to the match with Wawrinka.

Over 3.5 sets likely the best bet to try again. Juice will obviously be much higher than the Wawrinka match today. Likely I think they set them somewhere around -230 or so.

Even when the match-ups have been uneven between these two due to form, etc. - outside of the French Open which favored Rafa heavily in the beginning of this rivalry, the meetings in Australia and in NY have all gone at least four I believe. Think it's a smarter try vs. the Over which I see set at 41. Lopsided sets happen quite a bit between these two because of their abilities to break and play defense.

[Chaz22]

This thread was all about over or under 3.5 sets. EP and couple of folowers were quite sure that Stan can break himself and cry during the match. Now this obviously did not happen as Stan battled all the way. Sure there were some ups and downs for both of them but it was a great match all in all.

[Chaz22]

And yes ... how can you thank someone who says voiding the match is the best option. Really good advice.

[Hardcoar]

Some impressive postmaking ITT.