Australian Open 2009 thread

**secret007** · 01-15-09, 02:13 AM

i agree with most points here..

i hate betting girls.. they are just too... inconsistent and unpredictable...

**Shark79** · 01-15-09, 08:25 AM

Welcome back Staco!

Great to see you around ... we´ve started to play with some of the previous tourneys, doing well for now. But the Aussie open is a new ball park, and the master tennis players will show up with there A Game.

Would like to see what the odds on Murray will be for this tourney.

See you again on Friday.

Cheers!

Originally posted by Stacocakes

5) Betting womens tennis takes years off your life.Trust me.Almost all of the girls have no close out ability in matches.You will see a 5-2 lead dissapear in a matter of minutes..happens all of the time. I don't trust any of the girls to close out the matches.With that said, betting a female player at odds over -1000....crazy

Your right, only Crazyl would do such a thing ....

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-15-09, 08:37 PM

Draw is out!

Murray likely route: Pavel, Granollers, Nishikori, Verdasco, Tsonga. Then, in the semis Nadal, or if he falls early Simon or Monfils. OK draw, although he wouldn’t have minded avoiding a top seed like Tsonga in the quarters (still think Murray would win that fairly comfortably, esp given Tsonga’s injury worries). Most important for his chance of winning is that Nadal is in his half.

Nadal: Rochus, Serra, Tursunov (or maybe Schwank), Gasquet/Gonzo/Hewitt, Simon/Monfils/Ancic, Murray, Federer/Djokovic. He’d better be careful against Tursunov, and both Simon and Monfils have the game to beat him on this surface.

Djokovic: qualifier, Chardy, Mathieu, Soderling, Roddick - or possibly Nalbandian, who has a decent draw (just beat Hewitt today, and if he can be bothered can beat anyone). The easiest draw of the top 4, unless Fat Dave decides to actually take a serious pop at a slam.

Federer: Seppi, Moya, Safin, Wawrinka or Berdych, Del Potro, Djokovic. He’d better be on the ball from the start, as Seppi can play (although Federer was pretty comfortable against him in Qatar). The possible 3rd round against Safin might be tasty, as he proved at Wimbledon he can still produce the one offs, and has had some incredible matches against Federer at the Aus Open over the years. With Federer’s weakness of late, it might just be the motivation he needs…..

Important headsup for the underdogs tonight: Gasquet vs Nalbandian in Sydney. Reeeeee-shar had a great win against Simon recently, and if he's mentally up for it has the game to knock out Nadal in the 4th round. Ditto Fat Dave: on form he can beat Djokovic.

**Stacocakes** · 01-16-09, 12:12 AM

Odds are probably shitty for the first round. I'm going to post some matches that I feel could have an upset.
With a best of five situation in these majors I don't see to many upsets in the early rounds

**Stacocakes** · 01-16-09, 02:35 AM

Mens Round 1 (No official plays yet just leans)

Hewitt looks like he got ****ed on his home soil here. Playing Fernando Gonzalez in the first round. Tough tough draw. Can't wait to see the line on this match. Still think that Gonzalez will win this match though. Hewitt is always tough though.This match could go five sets

Tommy Haas vs Schwank...wonder what the odds will be for this match.Haas likes to blow big matches. Schwank is nothing special but if I can get some really good odds with him it might be worth a very very small play. Cant' trust Haas.

Canas Kiefer will be a great match. Like both players alot. Its a shame that they have to play in the first round. I like Kiefer in this match due to the surface.Canas is pretty much shit on everything but clay BUT he does battle I will give him that.Seems like he can play for days straight.

Almagro/Massu - I am guessing that Almagro will be a huge favorite but he should win this match.If the odds are pretty decent I will take Almagro.Has a great serve which could work really well here.If the odds are huge though,i'll pass.

Karlovic/Gimeno - Will Ivo continue his shit in major's? Did pretty decent making it to the third round in last years Australian open.Think his serve will carry him till at least the second round where he will faces super Mario. Odds for Karlovic will be gross though I am sure so will probably pass on the match.

Ancic over Volandri. Like Ancic's game for this surface.Has a pretty decent serve. Should win this match

Nishikori/Melzer - Should be a very interesting match here.Might make a play on nishikori though it probably is a toss-up.Even before finishing this sentence I have already consider melzer as well.....going to look at the line when it comes out and base my pick after that

I'm loving Stepanek in this tournament for some reason.Has never done much here but he is coming in here hot and I think he could beat Verdasco in round 3.

Clement over Stakovsky - Will bet clement here depending on the line.IF its high though forget it

To go with Stepanek,I am also thinking about Blake doing something in this tournament. Think he could make it to round three easily where he will face either Andreev or Gulbis. Think he could beat either.

Gulbis first round over Montanes looks good. Gulbis has a great game when he is actually giveing it his all. SHould be able to walk through the first round.After that...who knows

My favorite player to fade Mr.Ljubicic is in activity here. May get by the first round match but will definately lose to Tsonga in the second round.Wonder what the odds for that will be.

I'm also thinking about Roddick here making a splash. I think he will face DJO in the quarter finals. I know I am thinking crazy here but I am going to ride the horse.Hopefully can nail some low odds on Roddick along the way to make some money.Don't feel like laying -1100 on him or anything

JCF over Santoro - Money in the bank.Will not lose to santoro. Santoro is done. Line will probably be ridiculous here though

Haven't checked to see what happened but does anyone know why Kohlschreiber retired from the last tournament?Could be something to look into. Querrey might be a good play here.Like his serve

I'm likeing Nalbandian to win at least 3 matches. Picking him to lose to Roddick though eventually. Probably wont be able to get any good odds on nalbandian though.Doesn't have much to beat besides Robredo

Soderling I am looking at to win three matches as well. Will probably make it to DJOkovic and be pummeled by him.

Baghdatis/Benneteau - Can you find two more inconsistant players then this?Maybe Paul-Henri Mathieu.Thats about it. This is a toss up here and whoever wins will get beaten by Soderling.

I think Fish can win 2 matches. Will then lose to Soderling. Might be able to get some nice odds in the first couple of rounds for Fish.Don't mind him

Paul Henri-Mathieu will beat Nieminen.Might not be to easy though.Might be able to make it to the third round though but he will lose there to DJO

Del Porto is going to be great.Have him getting to the quarter finals but Fed taking him out. SHould have a good run here but his odds will be gross all the way through

Muller/Lopez - Both players have good serves. SHould be a good match.Will sprinkle on Lopez if the odds are half decent

Cilic looks like he might have a good run. Should be able to beat Tipsarevic and Ferrer but won't be able to beat Del Porto.

Tipsarevic over Hernandez.Will lose in the second round though

I like Isner in the first round. Not sure what kind of odds you will get though.Will be good to see him and Ferrer play. Good serve and good return game playing eachother.Pretty much a toss up between those two. Think that Ferrer has more stamina though so should be able to beat Isner

Wawrinka might be able to advance a couple of rounds just because he is playing nobodys but he will lose to Berdych if he gets to that point. Might be worth a try to bet Ivo Minar over Wawrinka if you can get some good odds on it.Wawrinka is very inconsistant and I could see him getting knocked off early.

Oh my.World is coming to an end.Berdych winning 3 matches at the Aussie Open?Possible. Has the game to do it. Don't see much in his way.Will play Fed though at that point and lose though but will be a good run for him.

Can't wait to see the odds on Safin. Think he will win a couple matches here but then lose to Fed. Won't lay much for Safin though.To inconsistant.

Moya will win the first round but then lose to Fed.

Will be back in a bit with a quick look at the women's field

**Stacocakes** · 01-16-09, 02:57 AM

Looking at the women's schedule and it looks like crap up and down the boards. I know that the odds for the first round are going to be so ridiculous for the top players. Just a few thoughts about a couple players:

Jankovic - Doesn't have to play much the first 3 rounds. A possible match with Bartoli in the fourth round but she should be able to beat Bartoli. As far as possibly facing Zvonreva in the quarters, I don't know about that match. Jankovic hasn't shown that she can play when its crunch time in these major tournaments. Might be a good play to go on Zvonreva for this match.

Kirilenko will lose early as always.Just hard to figure out which round she will lose in.Third round vs Zvonreva should be as far as she can hope to get.Won't be Vera.

I like Safina alot here to make it to possibly the finals of this tournament. Has just been better then most of the other girls for the last year. Not much to get in her way till Cornet in the fourth round but Cornet hasn't shown that she can show up and get deep in a Major so Safina should be able to beat her. A possible matchup with Ivanovic in the quarters of her bracket. Should be able to beat the inconsistant Ivanovic if Ana even makes it that far. Who knows

Wozniacki gets Peer in the first round.Thats a tough tough match.If Woz can get past that it should end up with a good match between Ana and Woz. Could be Woz's time to shine

Love both Williams sisters of course.Believe that the winner between Venus and Serena will win the Australian Open.They are just better then everyone else.Both have easy roads to the quarters of there brackets. Venus will probably play Dementieva and beat her since Dementieva can't do anything when it comes to crunch time. Serena should be able to walk until she faces Rad in the quarters of the bracket.Will still beat her to set up the williams match.

Will get back to both the men and the women when the odds come out for the first round matches.Hard to base any decisions right now when there are no lines out yet.

**Tchocky** · 01-16-09, 03:10 AM

I like Murray on the men's side and Venus on the women's side. I wouldn't be surprised to see all 4 top seeds on the men's side to meet in the semis.

**Stacocakes** · 01-16-09, 03:32 AM

Agree Tchocky.In these tournaments where you have to win three sets to win its hard to knock off one of the top 4 players. i can see if it is a normal tournament with a best of three format, an underdog has a chance to catch a player sleeping and win but in these long drawn out matches its going to be hard. Not really sure who I am picking to win this tournament.Will see how the player's play in the opening rounds before I make a final decision. I am leaning towards a Murray/Federer final with Federer winning.

As for the women's side, I believe whichever williams sister makes it to the final will win. I am leaning towards Serena

**Stacocakes** · 01-16-09, 03:44 AM

What about this prop ???

Big 4 vs the field.... who will win? Big 4 is -450

Thats not that bad in my opinion. Can't really see anyone else pushing one of the four out early. Might make a play on this before it starts.SEeing what other books have this prop

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-16-09, 08:49 AM

Really bad result for Djokovic last night, losing to Nieminen. On the other hand, Nalbandian looks up for it, beating an in-form Gasquet. Anyway, had another look at the big 4's quarter chances::

Nadal: Tursunov and perhaps Haas have the game to beat him, but not the form. Gasquet has the game, but not the belief, see their terrific match in Canada (6-0 H2H in Nadal's favour also!). Simon's level seems to have dropped, so the prime danger is Monfils - he showed at Roland Garros he's now capable of winning several in a row, and in Doha the new aggressive game.

Federer: barring a Safin resurgence, there's nobody in his quarter who can beat him. Del Potro needs to learn some craft.

Djokovic: see Nieminen result mentioned above - ouch. Has lost the cutting edge imo. Soderling is playing OK, but a bit monodimensional to trouble Djoko I feel. The danger is in the quarters, with Roddick or Fat Dave.

Murray: will be content with this draw. Pavel and Granollers will be easy. The match vs the winner of Nishi-Melzer would be interesting, but nothing more (Melzer pushed Murray all the way at the US Open). Verdasco or Stepanek in the 4th easy meat, as Murray is great against lefties, and has never dropped a set against Gorgeous Radek. The big question is Tsonga's fitness for a potential QF, if not it's Blake, Andreev or perhaps Gulbis.

Looks like Fed makes the final imo - he's never much troubled by Djokovic. However if Fat Dave were to knock out Djoko, he'd have a fairly good chance of beating Fed too.

On the other side, Murray looks very solid to make his semi. Nadal's poor record at hard court slams is hard to judge: he's improved his hard court game, and last year made semis in both, but only courtesy of comedically easy draws. His best result in either remains beating the 15th seed over 5 sets. I really fancy Monfils has a good chance to beat him again though, it's just a question if he can get that far (he might find Simon's style very awkward).

**wannabet** · 01-16-09, 09:38 AM

Roddick will not beat Djokovic. It probably won't come to that, but if it does, that will be the easiest match of the tournament of Djokovic. Everyone knows Roddick will never win another big match in his career, especially Djokovic owns him. The rest of your commentary is subpar, but that is probably the most glaring hole in your latest addition of tennis guesses. sorry hehaw I think you're losing your edge.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-16-09, 10:12 AM

Djokovic owns Roddick? Not sure where you get that idea, as their head to head is 2-1. The match at the US Open was pretty close, especially at the end as Roddick upped his serving punch. Roddick won their meeting before that, last January.

More importantly, Roddick now is in his best form for a while, while Djokovic has been more or less poor for the last 6/7 months. The loss to Nieminen yesterday is typical of that, as is the straight sets loss to Gulbis two weeks ago in Brisbane. Hardly ideal preparation.

You're welcome to make any predictions of your own, of course. As for my edge - the last 3 months have been the most profitable I've ever had.

**wannabet** · 01-16-09, 10:27 AM

I guess you are up $50 over that period. Never before have you sustained a non losing month, and to make it 3 months in a row. I am truly impressed. That's why I say you are about to go down and lose, simply odds of probability for someone with your skill.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-16-09, 10:55 AM

OK, well seeing as you clearly have nothing to contribute on the tennis side, I'll cease responding to you on that.

As for your silly little gibes: here's last week's transaction list at my main book:

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(despite the USD message it's in GBP as their software doesn't support otherwise, so add 50% to convert to $)

**wannabet** · 01-16-09, 11:08 AM

you are betting $1000 USD on each of your bets that you post? Is that a good figure for me to use as reference? Interesting and GL. I thought you were Australian, and maybe you would have inside info about the Aussie Open, however, looks like that is not the case. congratulations on last week! I guess I'll just watch and see how you do.

**ZXCVBNM** · 01-16-09, 02:42 PM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

OK, well seeing as you clearly have nothing to contribute on the tennis side, I'll cease responding to you on that.

As for your silly little gibes: here's last week's transaction list at my main book:

ImageShack - Best place for all of your image hosting and image sharing needs

http://img120.imageshack.us/my.php?image=58053962ij3.jpg

Unlimited space to host images, easy to use image uploader, albums, photo hosting, sharing, dynamic image resizing on web and mobile.

(despite the USD message it's in GBP as their software doesn't support otherwise, so add 50% to convert to $)

that is insane.. good work.

Originally posted by wannabet

you are betting $1000 USD on each of your bets that you post? Is that a good figure for me to use as reference? Interesting and GL. I thought you were Australian, and maybe you would have inside info about the Aussie Open, however, looks like that is not the case. congratulations on last week! I guess I'll just watch and see how you do.

No need for arguing simply cause you have different opinions!

**meganie** · 01-16-09, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by wannabet

Roddick will not beat Djokovic. It probably won't come to that, but if it does, that will be the easiest match of the tournament of Djokovic. Everyone knows Roddick will never win another big match in his career, especially Djokovic owns him. The rest of your commentary is subpar, but that is probably the most glaring hole in your latest addition of tennis guesses. sorry hehaw I think you're losing your edge.

Oh c'mon you also said, he would destroy Federer...Got the feeling you're a little bit biased concerning Djoko...Can't believe you're saying he owns Roddick atm, especially after last night.
And don't tell me, he didn't want to win, because if he had won, he would have gotten the No. 2 spot, if that's not enough motivation to make you win against Nieminen, than I don't know what.

**wannabet** · 01-16-09, 03:40 PM

I'll give hehaw credit for betting large sums of money, but if he loses more than he wins it doesn't matter. besides half of what he won there was on a large free play with no consequences. Makes me think he probably has already thrown away a lot of funds, and therefore he earned a free play.

If Djokovic gets through to the quarters facing Roddick, then he will be in an excellent position. Hew would like dismiss federrer in straight sets, and then if he plays Murray, I would like to see how it goes down. Everyone is high on Murray, but you guys may be just a little too high. Just a caution to you high rollers.

**meganie** · 01-16-09, 04:29 PM

wannabet, I do respect your opinion and I'm not the best tennis capper myself, but have you seen one of them playing recently? I have followed Murray in pretty much every match he has played since the US Open and I can say, this guy is the one to beat atm. It would be an exaggeration to say that he dominated every match, because there were some downs, e.g. the loss to Nalbandian and his match against Tipsarevic, where he fell in his old patterns with immature behavior, screaming and some racket smashing. But overall this guy was simply the steadiest one of all the players after the US Open. And his performance against Roddick in Doha was simply stunning, it wasn't even a competition.
He deserves to be the favorite imo, because not Federer, not Nadal and not Djokovic have played near what they're capable of the last months. True, a grand slam is completely different to any other tournament, but based on their performances recently, Murray should be the favorite here.
Nobody knows, how he handles the pressure of being the favorite here, but my opinion is, if he gets beaten, it won't be by Djokovic or Nadal, but by some no name or Federer or Nalbandian at his best.

**wannabet** · 01-16-09, 05:12 PM

I haven't watched any of the matches or even kept up with many of the results. Last year before the Australian Open everyone was saying this will be Novak's turn to win a major, and he won. Now they are saying the same thing about Murray, oh it's his turn to win. It might be a little too simple that he is the favorite to win. I guess you would still win more than your money to take Murray, but I do not expect him to win. I would be interested to hear what were the odds on Novak last year to win. From my perspective they were saying Novak was a very good shot, I'm not hearing as much about Murray as I was hearing about Djokovich this time last year. Maybe you all are just right that Murray is flying under the radar and will waltz through to the finals for an easy win. It should be interesting to watch some tennis, just don't out-handicap yourself, and determine that you are a judge of tennis talent. I'd leave that to people who are actually involved in playing tennis at a high level. Sometimes it is hard to judge that, and it's my opinion that major events are a different game than a lot of the smaller tournaments. My scopre is limited, but I don't think Murray is that unstoppable. I'll let you know after the tournament is well underway. Maybe I will come to agree that Murray is the next 5-10 major winner. I'm sure you'll do well. Good luck

**Stacocakes** · 01-16-09, 05:59 PM

There are many other factors to consider when thinking about who will win.If you have a player like Nadal and lets say hypothetically that he was playing many 4 and 5 set matches here and he was facing a player like Murray who was having many 3 and 4 set matches in this tournament, it could make a big difference.So hard to tell before the tournament starts who will win with any certainty. Other factors to consider are players health, mindset,etc.
When DJO won the Australian Open the sky was the limit for him and everyone was saying that he was going to be the one to overtake Federer.Just hasn't happened for him. When you watch him play he looks like he doesn't give a shit most of the time.Its shows in his performances.Of course if he was 100% focused and hungry to be number one things would probably be different.
Haven't heard much discussion anywhere about Nadal winning this tournament.Seems everyone is concentrating on the other three.
As far as Roddick goes, if you have a big serve like his anything is possible.If an opponent like his has an off service day then Roddick will fare pretty well. Thing is though, if you can return roddicks serve and keep the ball in play, Roddicks groundstrokes are terrible which is why he always has trouble beating the best.

Lines should be out for the opening round tomorrow so if you guys see any juicy underdogs that you like mens or womens, post it

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 01-16-09, 06:27 PM

I'd say interesting potentials:

* Karlovic to crash out early, as usual. Best serve in the history of tennis, yet in slams he's appalling. Depends on the odds though, Gimeno-T isn't exactly the most dangerous player around.
* Nishikori to beat Melzer. However, odds might be realistic here given his US Open performance
* Gulbis is usually overrated against lesser players. He beat Djokovic the other week, then lost to PH-M. However, if he gets past Montanes and Andreev, he will meet Tsonga.....
* .....who has big injury questions over a back injury. Exactly the sort of opponent Gulbis can motivate himself for and beat. Also not impossible old Ljubo could do the job against Jo-W in the 2nd round

**meganie** · 01-16-09, 06:50 PM

Not much research, just some interesting match-ups I thought, when I saw the odds:
Hewitt over Gonzalez
Benneteau over Baghdatis
Nieminen over Mathieu
Reynolds over Robredo
Kiefer over Canas (anyone has some further information about Kiefer's injury?)
Lu over Bellucci
Querrey over Kohlschreiber (anyone know how serious Kohlschreiber's shoulder injury is?)

Kethavong over Chakvetadze
Malek over Morita
Bremond over Vaidisova

Don't know much about the women's draw, would be awesome, if someone with more knowledge could provide some further infos.

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

I'd say interesting potentials:

* Karlovic to crash out early, as usual. Best serve in the history of tennis, yet in slams he's appalling. Depends on the odds though, Gimeno-T isn't exactly the most dangerous player around.
* Nishikori to beat Melzer. However, odds might be realistic here given his US Open performance
* Gulbis is usually overrated against lesser players. He beat Djokovic the other week, then lost to PH-M. However, if he gets past Montanes and Andreev, he will meet Tsonga.....
* .....who has big injury questions over a back injury. Exactly the sort of opponent Gulbis can motivate himself for and beat. Also not impossible old Ljubo could do the job against Jo-W in the 2nd round

Agreed, but don't forget that Nishikori has injury troubles as usual. Don't know, if he can survive three sets or more. If Melzer doesn't give up too early and wins at least one set, there should be a good chance Nishikori retires.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-16-09, 07:01 PM

Dark horses I see with quarterfinal possibilities: Baghdatis & Ancic. Believe it or not, I also believe James Blake or Ernest Gulbis will get the spot over Tsonga. I just don't think the Frenchman is gonna hold up physically here. And yes, laugh at Blake. But I think whoever makes it through a potential Blake vs. Gulbis/Andreev match is a threat in that part of the bracket.

**meganie** · 01-16-09, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Dark horses I see with quarterfinal possibilities: Baghdatis & Ancic. Believe it or not, I also believe James Blake or Ernest Gulbis will get the spot over Tsonga. I just don't think the Frenchman is gonna hold up physically here. And yes, laugh at Blake. But I think whoever makes it through a potential Blake vs. Gulbis/Andreev match is a threat in that part of the bracket.

I respectfully disagree with Baghdatis because of his injury history. Don't think he is capable of winning 12 or more sets in a week without getting injured. Actually I could see him losing in the first round.

If Gulbis gets over his first round match, he could be a threat, same thing with Blake.

Ancic I don't know, I don't rate his game very high atm, but he has a relatively easy draw. He'll probably have to face Monfils in the last 16 though.

**meganie** · 01-17-09, 03:20 AM

After the Kooyong final and the total destruction of Wawrinka, Federer's odds has dropped about 50c at bet365.

**Stacocakes** · 01-17-09, 03:16 PM

After a look at the first round lines, here are a couple leans for the first round:

Juan Carlos Ferrero -314 over Santoro. Love this. JCF is 4-1 in his career vs santoro.Santoro is old and over the hill. Lost his only match of the year so far 1 and 0 to Nadal.Not a good start for him. ONLY concern is JCF's health which is always a concern. Need to do a little bit of reading first to ensure that JCF is healthy and if he is, this looks like an easy win.

Robredo -370 over Reynolds.Should be an easy match for Robredo. Is it WORTH -370 though, not much is. May be to much for some. First round matches usually have a ton of juice though.

Bennetau +136 over Baghdatis - Like this alot.Baghdatis has had injury concerns throughout his career and has never lived up to his potential. The head to head is 2-0 for Bennetau.Bennetau is a good value play here though as the odds dictate, match is probably a toss up.

Isner +123 over Hrbaty - Hrbaty is on the downside of his career.Hasn't done much for a long time. Surprised that he is the favorite in this match. Isner has a great serve and is kinda like Karlovic, tall player with big serve but moves around really bad because he is like 15 feet tall. I think that Isner's serve should be able to hold him in this match and I believe that Isner will win this match.

Minar +450 over Wawrinka - Still thinking about this play. I'm one of the people that think that Wawrinka is a very overrated player. Would never take him at big odds ever. I can't see wawrinka getting far in this tournament though so Minar might be worth it at +450 for a possible upset.

BERDYCH -255 over Ginepri - What the **** is this?Need to do some quick reading tonight to see if Berdych has any possible injury issues.No idea why this line is so low. I was thinking Berdych would be somewhere around -500. Career record is 2-0 for Berdych. I guess the ability of Berdych to beat the best in the world and then lose to a bum off the street has been reflected in his generous odds here. Barring any injury concerns Berdych will definately be one of my plays.

Haas -131 over Schwank - Might be worth a small play here. Need to see if there are any injury concerns first for Haas who seems to get injured just getting out of bed in the morning.

Staying away from Hewitt/Gonzalez match.That should be a very good match.Can really go either way as the odds dictate.Will the crowd be enough though to give Hewitt the edge?I'm going to stay away. Small part of me though wants to bet Gonzalez.

Almagro -265 over Massu - Like this matchup here. Almagro 3-1 lifetime vs Massu, though all were on Clay. I like Almagro's serve and that should give him the edge here.

Clement -109 over Stakhovsky - Will take Clements experience in majors here over Stakhovsky. Arnaud has a 1-0 record career vs stakhovsky. Still think though that Clement's outfit when he plays is brutal. Who wears shades to play tennis?Come on now

Kunitsyn +178 over Ljubicic - Not sure about this play.I absolutely hate Ljubicic.He has cost me so much money in my lifetime.He was so overrated and always seemed to blow it when it mattered. He will lose early in this tournament...question is when? It may be worth a small play to get some +178 value in this match. Wouldn't surprise me if Ljubicic wins in three sets or loses in three so +178 seems like a good value for a toss up

Tsonga -300 over monaco - Thats it?Must be lots of concerns about the health of Tsonga and its apparent in his low line here. Need to do some research about Tsonga's health before making a bet here.

Theres a quick look at the first round lines.Looks to be some good plays possibly.I am going to have to do a little research on player's health before pulling the trigger on any of these plays. If anyone knows anything off hand let me know.Some lines look like they have good value. Again these are only leans.Haven't posted official plays yet. What do you guys think of these leans?Let me know

**Stacocakes** · 01-17-09, 03:23 PM

Hmm weird thing is that I put all of those plays above spaced out after every match and when I am looking at it now,its all clumped into one paragraph. What the hecks up with that?Hard to read

**Stacocakes** · 01-17-09, 10:53 PM

Volandri and Keifer out of the open for anyone who didn't know

**Stacocakes** · 01-17-09, 11:18 PM

Gonna make a play on the following:

Juan Carlos Ferrero -316 over Santoro
Benneatau +136 over Baghdatis - SMALL
Berdych -255 over Ginepri

Think that might be it for me for the first round. To much juice to make some of the bets I was thinking. I really want to play Tsonga and think he will win but his health concerns me.
Don't really feel that great about any of the other leans that I had.

Whats everyone else's sunday plays?

**meganie** · 01-18-09, 12:43 AM

Simply love the odds on Benneteau.

**Smogs** · 01-18-09, 05:05 PM

I've already bet on sam querrey and john isner, but not very much, and i should take benneteau, i'd only need 2-1 for profit, is raising my stakes safe with these players? i have bet under 1% of my bankroll, just not sure as ive been out of tennis since wimbledon '07 and would appreciate advice on the strength of these plays, cheers

**Stacocakes** · 01-18-09, 06:18 PM

I wouldn't really put alot of money on Isner or Querrey.I like them both though. Querrey is playing a player that has some injury concerns so that might help your Querrey bet. As far as isner, he has a great serve and he is playing a player clearly on the downside of his career in Hrbaty, though Hrbaty has played a bit better recently. Would think Querrey would be the better bet out of the two. Still wouldn't go that big on it though. Will be alot more oppurotunities to make money as the rounds go on at this tourney.

**Smogs** · 01-18-09, 06:43 PM

Thanks for that, i'll leave it for now and see what happens