Fade after important win "system"

[benrama]

System is absolutely $, to the point where I'm also reluctant to share, but I do believe in giving back.

Basically you fade any player who's has a seminal win. Darcis was the first one but he retired, next were Stakhovsky and Larcher, I added Dustin Brown in as well as for a broke second stringer that was a big win against Hewitt.

Next fades (though much weaker angles) are Zemlja, Sijsling and Gulbis.

Any other additions you guys want to suggest?

Keep in mind this strategy has two things going for it, one the fact that there's a psychological let down, two that the odds get inflated on the player you are fading due to the perception of their last win.

[benrama]

Always play WTA for less, but adding Kanepi, Keys and Cetkovska to the list.

Bouchard would have been a candidate too (but too late).

[frugalgambler]

System is absolutely $, to the point where I'm also reluctant to share, but I do believe in giving back.

Basically you fade any player who's has a seminal win. Darcis was the first one but he retired, next were Stakhovsky and Larcher, I added Dustin Brown in as well as for a broke second stringer that was a big win against Hewitt.

Next fades (though much weaker angles) are Zemlja, Sijsling and Gulbis.

Any other additions you guys want to suggest?

Keep in mind this strategy has two things going for it, one the fact that there's a psychological let down, two that the odds get inflated on the player you are fading due to the perception of their last win.

Thanks for sharing. This "system" has already been discussed a number of times after the upsets at Wimby (even mentioned on TV). I do not think the above three players really qualify, e.g., I and a few people around here bet on both of them to win their last matches. The dogs have stopped barking for now; I do not see any further strong candidates.

[frugalgambler]

Thanks for sharing. This "system" has already been discussed a number of times after the upsets at Wimby (even mentioned on TV). I do not think the above three players really qualify, e.g., I and a few people around here bet on both of them to win their last matches. The dogs have stopped barking for now; I do not see any further strong candidates.

Specifically, on TV they said that players who beat former number 1s are 0-9 in their next matches. There are no more former number ones left, except for the current ones, I think. Anyway, Cetkovska beat Woz and is still alive. She is to finish her match tomorrow with Sloan. I would however advise against fading Cetkovska, since Sloan really did not look very good today (and Woz was kinda a fake number 1 anyway).

[shari91]

I tried this with Robson yesterday and that was a busto. But Puig/Birnerova looks to have been a good one if Birnerova manages to close her out when they resume. It's definitely a theory that's been talked about for many years by both gamblers and tennis fans.

[Gus Fring]

Shari, who u like in Gulbis match?

[lucasdawg]

i noticed a similar trend. when hewitt won over warinka, then hewitt lost to brown, then brown lost to mannarino

[shari91]

Shari, who u like in Gulbis match?

Verdasco but that's a crazy match to bet on. Gulbis is finally trying to take tennis seriously after being a party boy forever and Verdasco's brain is inconsistent. Too hard to guess which version of either guy is going to show up on any day.

[drfunkmaster]

zemlja wins...

[benrama]

Lol of course this isn't a system or something I came up with exclusively, it was tongue in cheek.

Anyways, Shari thanks for contributing, I think personally expanding this to comprise a much broader definition of "seminal win" will reduce your % but greatly up the bets. I'm playing all the players I listed and will track how it goes.

[benrama]

Robson I wouldn't have included by the way, it's a bit of a gut feel on this but she's had the big wins before and this is her home tourney.

[COLLEGEBALLGURU]

I tried this with Robson yesterday and that was a busto. But Puig/Birnerova looks to have been a good one if Birnerova manages to close her out when they resume. It's definitely a theory that's been talked about for many years by both gamblers and tennis fans.

You tried with meltzer too and that shipped!
System is truly $$$
I'm liking verdasco tomorrow

[benrama]

So to be clear I'm taking:
Dodig ML
Del Po -7
A Radwanska -4.5
Riske (ML and +3)
Stephens ML
Verdasco (ML and +2.5)

[Hardcoar]

As I've been saying, smart money is on Puta Madre. I personally disagree with him having a greater than 40 % chance here though. Shall be very interesting to see how things play out.

[shari91]

So to be clear I'm taking:
Dodig ML
Del Po -7
A Radwanska -4.5
Riske (ML and +3)
Stephens ML
Verdasco (ML and +2.5)

I really like the Riske bet. I'm on her too. Massive soft spot for her after hearing about how if she beat Radwanska the prize money would cover her training and travel for the next 2 years. I've watched each of her matches and she's looking great out there. She might lose but at least I won't feel like I wasted cash on a burnout. Nice to see Verdasco kicking some ass so far. I'm telling you, it's that new racquet he's using. GL ben!!

[ohumad]

I really like the Riske bet. I'm on her too. Massive soft spot for her after hearing about how if she beat Radwanska the prize money would cover her training and travel for the next 2 years. I've watched each of her matches and she's looking great out there. She might lose but at least I won't feel like I wasted cash on a burnout. Nice to see Verdasco kicking some ass so far. I'm telling you, it's that new racquet he's using. GL ben!!

Nah definitely the hair.

[Hardcoar]

Premature congratulations on your Puta Madre bets. Looking fine so far!

[shari91]

Nah definitely the hair.

The ladies love that hair! I was watching the match vs Anderson at the AO this year and women were lining up in the scorching heat trying to get into the arena. And when he got nailed a point for coaching all the women went nuts. He was totally in the wrong but they were acting like he'd been robbed and were letting the ump full on have it. So funny.

[benrama]

I really like the Riske bet. I'm on her too. Massive soft spot for her after hearing about how if she beat Radwanska the prize money would cover her training and travel for the next 2 years. I've watched each of her matches and she's looking great out there. She might lose but at least I won't feel like I wasted cash on a burnout. Nice to see Verdasco kicking some ass so far. I'm telling you, it's that new racquet he's using. GL ben!!

Agreed, I liked Riske independent of this "system". I also feel Kerber just crumbled the other day and that this win meant a LOT to Kanepi - it's arguably one the biggest wins in her career, top 10 player, wimbledon. I can see her underestimating Riske or at least coming out flat.

Good start for Verdasco, but I never underestimate his ability to have a brain explosion. GL to you too Shari!

[benrama]

So to be clear I'm taking:
Dodig ML
Del Po -7
A Radwanska -4.5
Riske (ML and +3)
Stephens ML
Verdasco (ML and +2.5)

4-2 on the day (depending on what your book does with the Sijsling retirement) with a hit on Verdasco as a dog.

I think I over-stated the Keys win against Barthel (who's really a middle of the road player) so should have dropped that fade. Riske had some chances in the 2nd but ultimately didn't have the firepower to challenge Kanepi.

Looking to fade Tomic next round and maybe Seppi.