Always Keep This In Mind @ Slams ...

[EaglesPhan36]

The guys/gals that score their "signature" win like Stakkhovsky. Like Larcher Brito.

Consider fading them in their next match, especially if going against competent players.

9/10, these players cannot follow up these marquee wins. Held true today in both those cases listed above.

[tevari]

One of my all time favorite types of plays. All the squares jump on the giant slayer and lose.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I could not talk myself into taking Knapp after looking everything over even though I wanted to, but Melzer I had little issue with taking.

[Hardcoar]

Brown.

[beefcake]

bet a 3 team parlay fading all the 3 big winners..Winner

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah Brown, I dunno if that really classifies ... it was a big win for him, but Hewitt is hardly a prime player any more - but I get it with the surface and Hewitt playing reasonably well. I'm talking knocking off a Top 10 guy when you're 0-20 previously against Top 10 players ... that's Stakhovsky. Rosol last year another obvious example.

[Hardcoar]

It was still an @ 7 upset...

On the ATP that usually means something.

[Bet10Heinekens]

Is it time to jump on Kanepi, hmmmmm

[EaglesPhan36]

I have to read the post-match comments from Lisicki first - I like to gauge the overachiever's mental state by their choice of how they term the win and handle the W. You can usually tell from there whether it's worth it. Stakhovsky for example had called his win over Federer "magic" ... Rosol after beating Nadal last year called it "a miracle." Those are the guys you want to go against in the next match 100%.

[ApricotSinner32]

The guys/gals that score their "signature" win like Stakkhovsky. Like Larcher Brito.

Consider fading them in their next match, especially if going against competent players.

9/10, these players cannot follow up these marquee wins. Held true today in both those cases listed above.

[ ] 9/10

[beefcake]

Well, maybe having only 1 day to think about it wont hamper Sabine since they play again tomorrow. Still odds are already going up on Kanepi if you like it.But ESPN is bringing her on soon, I am sure they will blow her up and tell her how amazing she was.

[ApricotSinner32]

Show me data from the last 10 years of grandslams that supports this theory. You said 90% of the time surely you have some reason for saying 90% no?

[EaglesPhan36]

You have to realize too that in this case, we are not talking about some fringe player who never beat a top ten player. Lisicki has slayed a giant or two in her day - she's actually got quite the rep for knocking out the French Open Champion @ Wimbledon now. I think she's done in like 3 or 4 of the last 5 years.

[RichardGeorge]

I just wouldn't count Lisicki as an auto fade this time... She's done it before.. The whole thing about Rosol, Stahkovsky, and the Portugeese girl is that it came out of nowhere and once in a lifetime type win for these 3 (though Larcher Brito might end up being successful- who knows)

[EaglesPhan36]

Will keep this in mind though if playing at all ...

Sabine Lisicki admitted that she was “shaking” after she beat Serena Williams, the defending champion and world No 1, 6-2, 1-6, 6-4 in one of the biggest upsets yet at this year’s Wimbledon.

“I’m still shaking,” Lisicki told the BBC in a post-match interview.

Obviously a big deal to beat Serena the way she has been playing. I may just go for the total myself if anything. Plenty of time to mull things over.

[tevari]

I see no letdown for Lisicki against Kanepi. She's playing out of her skin at the moment, and like EP says, it isn't the first time she's beaten a top 10 player. I watched both of her matches in entirety (Stosur, Williams), and if she plays up to 80% of how she did in those matches, she should handle Kanepi with maybe only a blip or two. I would only use her in a parlay though at the given price. Don't like a side with -games or totals.

[EaglesPhan36]

This is truly a tough call in my opinion. This is reminiscent of Soderling beating Nadal as far as the impact of the W. It's not that Soderling didn't have the talent, but you had a guy who did not lose at Roland Garros ... period.

Here, it's not that Lisicki didn't have the talent to beat Serena, but Serena had dominated almost every match from the French Open through her last match prior to Lisicki today. 34 match win streak.

Soderling was able to follow up his win and made the Finals before getting blown out by Federer. I do think he had a much easier opponent the following round in Davydenko than Lisicki has in Kanepi.

The interesting factor though is that Lisicki is now in the favorite's spot, not the underdog spot that she relishes. To me, that gives someone like Kanepi something to motivate themselves now. I can beat the girl who beat Serena. This one and Li-Radwanksa to me are the two QFs that should be really good.

[ohumad]

This is truly a tough call in my opinion. This is reminiscent of Soderling beating Nadal as far as the impact of the W. It's not that Soderling didn't have the talent, but you had a guy who did not lose at Roland Garros ... period.

Here, it's not that Lisicki didn't have the talent to beat Serena, but Serena had dominated almost every match from the French Open through her last match prior to Lisicki today. 34 match win streak.

Soderling was able to follow up his win and made the Finals before getting blown out by Federer. I do think he had a much easier opponent the following round in Davydenko than Lisicki has in Kanepi.

The interesting factor though is that Lisicki is now in the favorite's spot, not the underdog spot that she relishes. To me, that gives someone like Kanepi something to motivate themselves now. I can beat the girl who beat Serena. This one and Li-Radwanksa to me are the two QFs that should be really good.

I agree although I'm very curious about the outcome of the Kvitova-Fklipkens match! Nice change without Aza-Pova-Williams in the mix.

[EaglesPhan36]

I mean they are all actually betable for once without any outrageous MLs. Seems like it has been a long time since two QFs both had close to pick 'em lines in either WTA or ATP.

[benrama]

You guys are all over thinking this. Lisicki will have an emotional let down today, it is inevitable, especially when a player is as teary as she was. Have any of you played competitive sport and had an epic win against the odds? The adrenalin rush wears off and then it's like a drug come down.

And now the public is pushing her line up. If you'd over thought the fading of a player after a big win over the years you'd probably have talked yourself out of countless winners.

[EaglesPhan36]

While I am likely to try Kanepi for some amount, I think each case is different when dealing with these marquee sort of wins. The underlings who come out of nowhere are an easy call to go against mostly if they play someone with some savvy in the next round. When vets like Lisicki pull a win or like Soderling against Nadal - you do have to look more closely. I tend to agree with your sentiments benrama as I said earlier, I like to take in the post-match reactions to gauge how big a deal they treat the win as ... and Lisicki obviously is putting enormous weight on this W.

[benrama]

Sounds like we are mostly in agreement. I rarely blind bet anything but in this case I've been converted. See - I used to take it case by case, not over react to a win, run numbers, look at all relevant H2H, surface stats etc. But then I talked myself out of a LOT of winners, and i realised it's not a statistical play but a situational play. I literally have hit 75%+ once I "got over myself", so to speak.

For every Soderling that takes it further there's 4-5 that don't.

It's the same when someone takes down a 250/500 regular tourney, if they are not the big 4 you fade them the following tourney.

Lisicki is hardly an elite player, she still loses to the Riske's and U Radwanska's of this world on this surface. She also bowed out last year after beating Sharapova. Against Williams she went all out and it paid off, but you could also tell when a few first serves start missing she can tank badly, and spray UE's all over the place. Kanepi is much more stable IMO and can take advantage of these lulls.

Kanepi +1.5 sets at +101 odds is a must play, so is +4. The ML I'm playing for smaller. I don't need Lisicki to lose to profit just to be in a let down spot.

[tevari]

Kanepi +1.5 sets at +101 odds is a must play.

QFT.

[lucasdawg]

Yeah Brown, I dunno if that really classifies ... it was a big win for him, but Hewitt is hardly a prime player any more - but I get it with the surface and Hewitt playing reasonably well. I'm talking knocking off a Top 10 guy when you're 0-20 previously against Top 10 players ... that's Stakhovsky. Rosol last year another obvious example.

hewitt himself was a fade after taking warwrinka in straight sets first rd.

[benrama]

QFT.

WTF is QFT

[tevari]

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=QFT

[benrama]

Well you learn a new acronym every day. Glad to see we're on the same page, let's just hope it's "great minds think alike" and not "fools never differ" BOL.

[lucasdawg]

so is Lisicki a fade? because against Kanepi it seems like a run over. even with the system of fading after a big rd i think she showed great mentality to stay in the match against serena, so i cant see why she cant get out of trouble with kanepi if she even gets any trouble. within the first set she killed it with like barely any unforced errors, im sure she will just come out strong today and run over her opponent with all the confidence. but i do agree with the system at times, maybe like the next rd.

[EaglesPhan36]

That's yesterday. If she showed up with the same energy, passion and motivation every day - she'd be one of the top seeds. There's a reason why Lisicki is one of the WTA's interchangable parts after the top 2-3 players. Inconsistency. It's the same reasoning laid out for going against players who pull off these wins. If they played at that sort of level all the time, it wouldn't be a "shock" win.

Motivation/energy is really the thing that drives going against someone after a marquee win. We're suggesting the odds of her being able to recreate what she did today are low. That is usually the problem for most people who pull of a "shocker" at a Grand Slam. They tend to either come out flat or their initial burst of adrenaline wears off quickly and a capable opponent begins to take over.

The price alone is stupid most of the time when these upsets happen. If you would have pitted Lisicki against Kanepi in one of the grass prep events, is she going to be a -300 favorite? Hell, if you pit them a round earlier at Wimbledon for that matter.

[lucasdawg]

That's yesterday. If she showed up with the same energy, passion and motivation every day - she'd be one of the top seeds. There's a reason why Lisicki is one of the WTA's interchangable parts after the top 2-3 players. Inconsistency. It's the same reasoning laid out for going against players who pull off these wins. If they played at that sort of level all the time, it wouldn't be a "shock" win.

Motivation/energy is really the thing that drives going against someone after a marquee win. We're suggesting the odds of her being able to recreate what she did today are low. That is usually the problem for most people who pull of a "shocker" at a Grand Slam. They tend to either come out flat or their initial burst of adrenaline wears off quickly and a capable opponent begins to take over.

The price alone is stupid most of the time when these upsets happen. If you would have pitted Lisicki against Kanepi in one of the grass prep events, is she going to be a -300 favorite? Hell, if you pit them a round earlier at Wimbledon for that matter.

oo get what your saying, whats the best play for this match would you suggest ep?

[Bet10Heinekens]

Kanepi can match up with Lisicki with the power game with her serve and groundstrokes, quick easy points

Over is the best play and Kanepi ml is worth a stab

[swavings]

Just heard in Espn. The last 4 women to beat Serena lost the next round......

[frugalgambler]

WTF is QFT

deleted.

[pazim]

Just heard in Espn. The last 4 women to beat Serena lost the next round......

She is at the top, there is nowhere to go but down.

[secret007]

That's yesterday. If she showed up with the same energy, passion and motivation every day - she'd be one of the top seeds. There's a reason why Lisicki is one of the WTA's interchangable parts after the top 2-3 players. Inconsistency. It's the same reasoning laid out for going against players who pull off these wins. If they played at that sort of level all the time, it wouldn't be a "shock" win.

Motivation/energy is really the thing that drives going against someone after a marquee win. We're suggesting the odds of her being able to recreate what she did today are low. That is usually the problem for most people who pull of a "shocker" at a Grand Slam. They tend to either come out flat or their initial burst of adrenaline wears off quickly and a capable opponent begins to take over.

The price alone is stupid most of the time when these upsets happen. If you would have pitted Lisicki against Kanepi in one of the grass prep events, is she going to be a -300 favorite? Hell, if you pit them a round earlier at Wimbledon for that matter.

I'm just curious.. if lisicki met Kanepi in the first round a week ago, what do you think the odds were?