Will Li Na Lose??

CaptainOmar111 · 05-27-13, 12:13 AM

She should win !!!

baconbets · 05-27-13, 12:19 AM

look on the mens side if you are looking for a big favorite isolated money line. a 5 set match gives the better player more chances to win and reduces the possibility of a flukey loss.

i think klizan over russell is a good play. roughly the same odds you are quoting above for li na. klizan has a clay pedigree, and his price is probably being reduced by his poor W-L record on clay so far this year. but, consider the quality of his losses:

monaco
anderson
kholschreiber
giraldo
montanes

all of the above are quality clay players. meanwhile, michael russell is a 5'8 35 year old american whose 2013 clay claim to fame was winning the first set against troicki at dusseldorf.

Jago2008 · 05-27-13, 12:49 AM

Originally posted by baconbets

look on the mens side if you are looking for a big favorite isolated money line. a 5 set match gives the better player more chances to win and reduces the possibility of a flukey loss.

i think klizan over russell is a good play. roughly the same odds you are quoting above for li na. klizan has a clay pedigree, and his price is probably being reduced by his poor W-L record on clay so far this year. but, consider the quality of his losses:

monaco
anderson
kholschreiber
giraldo
montanes

all of the above are quality clay players. meanwhile, michael russell is a 5'8 35 year old american whose 2013 clay claim to fame was winning the first set against troicki at dusseldorf.

I'm the type of guy that appreciates analysis, definitely love the opinion, so thank you very much. I know absolutely nothing about the gentlemen you named "Klizan" but I have seen Na play considerably, I saw her through the Australian open, and others. Obviously she is a public figure in the WTA, and I felt comfortable laying a little over $2000 on her. With all this said the odds are not significantly better on the guy you mentioned, if he does have clay pedigree, I'm more inclined to back a tennis player like that. HOWEVER, I'm just looking for a winner.

Perhaps I'll pass this instance and continue in MLB, NBA, and NHL. I have no expertise in Tennis, but I appreciate the opinions nonetheless.

Jago2008 · 05-27-13, 12:50 AM

Originally posted by CaptainOmar111

She should win !!!

Thank you Captain.

CaptainOmar111 · 05-27-13, 12:59 AM

Originally posted by Jago2008

Thank you Captain.

I love the way you are thinking , Placing good amount of money on %99 won bet and without caring for the odds because at the end , If she won that means you will make good profit and free money !!!

I do the same

Hardcoar · 05-27-13, 01:03 AM

I doubt she'll lose, and there's probably some value in the short line, but it's by no means a "guaranteed win" or anywhere near it. Selected men's favorites should be much, much safer (even at the same odds), but I'm a bit worried by Klizan playing at least three sets...

If the match goes beyond three sets I'm even more worried!

Jago2008 · 05-27-13, 01:14 AM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

I doubt she'll lose, and there's probably some value in the short line, but it's by no means a "guaranteed win" or anywhere near it. Selected men's favorites should be much, much safer (even at the same odds), but I'm a bit worried by Klizan playing at least three sets...

If the match goes beyond three sets I'm even more worried!

Good to know, who else do you like in the ATP at the same odds bro? Instead of "bro" I was going to call you "naked Tsonga" but I digressed.

CaptainOmar111 · 05-27-13, 01:39 AM

Originally posted by Jago2008

Good to know, who else do you like in the ATP at the same odds bro? Instead of "bro" I was going to call you "naked Tsonga" but I digressed.

steviec27 · 05-27-13, 03:44 AM

In all honesty, other than Serena there is no player who could not be beaten by a lower ranked opponent on any given day.
Serving is meant to be a huge advantage, and in the men's game is, but in the women's game it's ridiculas how many breaks there are. So I would never really take silly odds as a rule.

In this matchup in particular, you mention seeing her at the Aussie Open. Worth noting she is 17-3 this year on hard court, 4-3 on clay.
Now I know that's a small sample size on clay, but she was beaten in straight sets by Sharapova and Keys recently on clay, yet on hard court she beat both those players fairly comfortably (beating Sharapove 6-2 6-2 notably).
So clearly she is not completely at home on the clay courts and Spaniards (of whom her opponent today is) are notoriously good on clay.

Having said all that I think Li Na wins, but its food for thought.

MUHerd37 · 05-27-13, 04:42 AM

Li Na is pimping Garrigues right now

Jago2008 · 05-27-13, 05:57 AM

Originally posted by MUHerd37

Li Na is pimping Garrigues right now

Ticket Wager Detail

Ticket Number:234580809Accepted Date:5/27/2013 - ESTGraded Date:1/1/0001Wager Type:Money LineWager Status:PendingRisk:$2000.67 (USD)To Win Amount:$421.23 (USD)Description:Tennis - WTA - Na Li vs. Anabel Medina Garrigues - Na Li
Item #:1Wager Type:Money LineOutcome:PendingSport / Period:Tennis WTA / MatchLine:Tennis - WTA - Na Li vs. Anabel Medina Garrigues - Na Li 5/27/2013 5:10:01 AM- (EST)
-475

Hardcoar · 05-27-13, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by Jago2008

Good to know, who else do you like in the ATP at the same odds bro? Instead of "bro" I was going to call you "naked Tsonga" but I digressed.

:'(

Had I been at home I would have told you, or advised you to my other posts. It never occured to you to look at them, did it?

Jago2008 · 05-27-13, 03:07 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

:'(

Had I been at home I would have told you, or advised you to my other posts. It never occured to you to look at them, did it?

I'm not sure what you mean, the bet I made won. I meant no disrespect with my comment about your avatar, I was just kidding around. But thank you for your opinion.

CaptainOmar111 · 05-27-13, 03:50 PM

Originally posted by Jago2008

Ticket Wager Detail

Ticket Number:234580809Accepted Date:5/27/2013 - ESTGraded Date:1/1/0001Wager Type:Money LineWager Status:PendingRisk:$2000.67 (USD)To Win Amount:$421.23 (USD)Description:Tennis - WTA - Na Li vs. Anabel Medina Garrigues - Na Li
Item #:1Wager Type:Money LineOutcome:PendingSport / Period:Tennis WTA / MatchLine:Tennis - WTA - Na Li vs. Anabel Medina Garrigues - Na Li 5/27/2013 5:10:01 AM- (EST)
-475

Congrats bro

Hope tomorrow you find another winner

Hardcoar · 05-27-13, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by Jago2008

I'm not sure what you mean, the bet I made won. I meant no disrespect with my comment about your avatar, I was just kidding around. But thank you for your opinion.

I mean I would've preferred "Naked Tsonga". Your digression (is that correct by the way or am I forced to say "you digressing"?) saddens me.

I also mean I wasn't available to tell you my men's picks, but that you could always look at my other posts on this forum by checking my profile out.

I didn't have any at such shitty (very short) odds though...