Seeking advice on hedging on Wawrinka vs. Nadal

[Soren]

Hey everybody,

I have placed a 20$ bet on Wawrinka to win in Madrid at odds 67. I have been planning all along to hedge if he faced Nadal in the final, but now that i have seen the ridiculous price on Nadal at 1.11 to win, I am wondering if it would be wise to lay a huge sum on Nadal for a small profit.
Another option which I am currently leaning towards is letting my bet ride, and then if Wawrinka gets off to a good start, I can start hedging for a better price live-betting.

What would your approach to my situation be? Any help would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks,

Soren

[tevari]

Nadal is the greatest clay courter of all time - there is no fair price to hedge with the current pre-match odds, but I give Wawrinka a snowball's chance in hell of winning. I'd let it ride and like you said, if on the slim possibility that Nadal goes down a break or two in the opening set, you may find a hedging opportunity there. I see no value or situational betting otherwise.

[Hardcoar]

My approach would be to hope for Stan to take 1:st, which isn't out of the question by any means. Winning the match on the other hand is anything but likely...

I'd probably just hedge a break up or so if I were to hedge in the first place.

[EaglesPhan36]

It's $20 ..... Let it ride. Really the only good hedge on a low amount would have been taking Rafa as a future too.

[Soren]

Yeah I guess so. Thanks for the quick replies

[EaglesPhan36]

If it was $200 to win X on Wawrinka or $100, I would find a way to do something on it. Everything else when the price is this high on the favorite is really tough to be able to get something back on. You could maybe look and see what the price is on set betting 2-0 and 2-1 on Rafa, but it's probably going to add up to close to spending -650 on the ML any way.

[Hardcoar]

Actually the amount wagered is irrelevant, but I wouldn't hedge ML in this case.

The curious advice you're giving is not to hedge after 1:st or a Stan break if the situation turns out to be favorable...

[plankton43]

I would only hedge if you're lucky enough for Wawrinka to take the 1st.

[hougigo]

What do you guys think of +5 Wawa?

[FoxMulder]

Personally I will go with wawrinka +5h. I believe Nadal winning the title by default is an overhyped pov. I would not discard wawrinka readily. the better his opponent is, the better he plays. Despite his recent titles, i am not convinced that Nadal is what he used to be a few years back, physically and mentally. Average performing Djokovic outdid him @ Monte Carlo

[Hangoverblack]

Stan has been getting shit done lately. His play has been just good enough to get by each of his last 9 opponents, beating the likes of Ferrer, Tsonga, Berdych, Dimitrov.

I have every intention to taking a shot at +500. I am simply waiting because I'm almost sure the price will get better.

Nadal is the greatest of all time but these Madrid courts are hardly typical and the balls are different and the altitude is different and the weather is different. It is a unique environment and Nadal is hardly unbeatable.

wawrinka was +580 ML down a break in the third today. Nadal has played no one in Madrid. I think the first set is a literal coin flip.

[Hardcoar]

Personally I will go with wawrinka +5h. I believe Nadal winning the title by default is an overhyped pov. I would not discard wawrinka readily. the better his opponent is, the better he plays. Despite his recent titles, i am not convinced that Nadal is what he used to be a few years back, physically and mentally. Average performing Djokovic outdid him @ Monte Carlo

It would be overhyped if Stan's last ten matches had not played out the way they have, and if Rafa had showed any sign of weakness in Madrid.