Oh you mad? Tennis Pickings

[Hangoverblack]

Why Viola? Tailing btw

[ohumad]

Why Viola? Tailing btw

Like throwing darts, and hate Canadians... And enough of the azz references man! Mainly on it for the value with Viola's recent form in short.

[ohumad]

Viola @3.00(5u) final set v Pospisil
*0-0 deuce Viola

[ohumad]

Viola @3.00(5u) final set v Pospisil
*0-0 deuce Viola

Viola @5.5

[Hangoverblack]

I agree Viola at live odds is worth a shot. He was not prepared mentally to win, but if he gets this break back it is all his.

[Hangoverblack]

He had lost the first point of his service games in five of last six opportunities. Not good mental fortitude since up a set and a break earlier.

[Hangoverblack]

Unbelievable. COME ON YOU DONKEY FELCH VIOLA TAKE IT HE IS TRYING TO GIVE IT TO YOU

[ohumad]

He had lost the first point of his service games in five of last six opportunities. Not good mental fortitude since up a set and a break earlier.

Yea had that hedge opportunity there but thought he'd pull through. Sorry Bruce. I might try my hand at these +1.5 bets more often as both those would have hit today (match odds @3.00).

[ohumad]

5* - [117] Juan Monaco 1.65 vs Benoit Paire
5* - [417] Mandy Minella 4.25 vs Annika Beck
5* - [409] Arantxa Rus 3.15 vs Estrella Cabeza Candela
5* - [109] Jerzy Janowicz 1.77 vs Fernando Verdasco
5* - [406] Chanelle Scheepers 1.71 vs Elina Svitolina
5* - [114] Dmitry Tursunov 2.45 vs Federico Del Bonis
5* - [105] Feliciano Lopez 2.50 vs Florian Mayer

@2.00(5u)(match must be completed)
Janowicz v Verdasco

6-5* Pennetta
Halep 2nd @2.37(2u)

Final set
*0-1 Halep
@1.80(5u)(match must be completed)
Halep v Pennetta

@2.75(5u)(match must be completed)
Tursunov v Delbonis

*4-5 Martic
@1.90(5u)
Martic v Mayr-Achleitner

Tursunov down a set
@8.00(2u)
Tursunov v Delbonis

Down a set, on serve
@4.00(2u)
Martic

Fk it!
@2.38(10u)(match must be completed)
Lopez v Mayer F.

10* - [113] Juan Monaco 2.45 vs Nicolas Almagro

5* - [419] Karin Knapp 1.87 vs Annika Beck
5* - [408] Elina Svitolina 2.00 vs Patricia Mayr-Achleitner
5* - [119] Fabio Fognini 2.35 vs Tommy Haas
10* - [302] Bulgaria 2.75 vs Italy(volleyball)
@4.73(5u)(full match)
Svitolina v Mayr-Achleitner
Monaco v Almagro

Down a set
@3.00(10u)
Hock Lai Lee v Suppanyu Avihingsanon(badminton)

OMFG Canada taking Russia to five sets. Cause it's like hockey with your hands and jumping and sht errr. C'mon SON.
@3.50(5u)
Canada v Russia (Vball)

Down a set
@4.00(3u)
Bulgaria v Italy(Vball)

1-1
@2.55(5u)
Bulgaria v Italy

*5-6 Falla
@1.90(5u)
Falla v Ebden

@2.25(15u)(full match)
Fognini v Haas

*4-2 D
@2.00(7u)
Verdasco v Delbonis

1-0* HM
@3.00(5u)
Haider-Maurer v Laaksonen

on serve
@2.00(7u)
Fognini 1st set v Haas

*2-4 Haas
Under 22.5 games
@1.90(10u)

Down a consolidated break.
Haas 2nd @5.50

1-0* Karlovic
@2.50(5u)
Karlovic v Mannarino

Final set down a break
@6.00(2u)
Mayer v Federer

Gotta support the home boys for another miracle.
Canada 8-5
Canada @5.5(5u) v Brazil

Down a set on serve
Canada +2.5 @3.00(5u) v Brazil

Down a set on serve
Canada @16.00 v Brazil

@3.00(5u)(full match)
Viola v Pospisil

Viola @3.00(5u) final set v Pospisil
*0-0 deuce Viola

Viola @5.5

Bahhh Canada bet amounts were just stupid considering I was shopping for a line representing a whipping pre-game.
+52.54u
(update other stats later)

[Hardcoar]

Your ROI is probably about 0.0000000001 %, but hey at least it's positive!

[ohumad]

Your ROI is probably about 0.0000000001 %, but hey at least it's positive!

lol yea why even bother calculating it? I still stand by the Monaco bet. U mad?

[Hardcoar]

No. in hindsight I underestimated Monaco completely. You should have seen how utterly shit he was against Griggs' last week though and you'd understand my conviction. The only reason Almagro won the match – let alone covered -6.5 games (lol!) – was his insanity when it mattered.

[ohumad]

20* - [122] Fabio Fognini 2.25 vs Nicolas Almagro
10* - [422] Karin Knapp 2.15 vs Yvonne Meusburger
5* - [401] Andrea Hlavackova 2.25 vs Elina Svitolina

[ohumad]

No. in hindsight I underestimated Monaco completely. You should have seen how utterly shit he was against Griggs' last week though and you'd understand my conviction. The only reason Almagro won the match – let alone covered -6.5 games (lol!) – was his insanity when it mattered.

Yes I didn't see the match but read about it. I figured his current form at Hamburg and given the closeness of the last match vs Almagro and also being the defending champ would be enough to put him over the top. Back to ROI I think if I started now and was disciplined I could hit 2% ROI after a number of bets but who knows.

[Hardcoar]

Making those three bets, do you actually find value in all three of them?

[Hardcoar]

How much did you actually know about "his current form in Hamburg". Båstad was only a few days prior...

[Hardcoar]

I also think you could be a productive better, but you don't seem to be trying very hard to me.

[Hardcoar]

Oh and yeah, I could've used one post instead of the three above plus this one making the statement...

[ohumad]

Making those three bets, do you actually find value in all three of them?

I think all three win so yes.

[Hardcoar]

Wow, you don't say...

[ohumad]

How much did you actually know about "his current form in Hamburg". Båstad was only a few days prior...

I mean current form during this tournament so vs Monfils, Paire.

I also think you could be a productive better, but you don't seem to be trying very hard to me.

Jerzy please give me the strength to stick to basic principles and to cut down my impulsiveness.

Wow, you don't say...

+EV don't you even know?

[Hardcoar]

I do, but I'm not as convinced as you are.

Also, my question still stands: How much do you know about Monaco's form in Hamburg. Did you watch him vs Monfils and Paire, for example??

[ohumad]

I do, but I'm not as convinced as you are.

Also, my question still stands: How much do you know about Monaco's form in Hamburg. Did you watch him vs Monfils and Paire, for example??

I actually didn't but I read about these as well. So how much did I know about his form in Hamburg? More or less for me it comes down to overcoming x quality of players taking into consideration if they played to their usual level and how close the match was.

[Hardcoar]

How exactly do you mean you "read" about those matches (I.E where and what it read exactly)?

[ohumad]

How exactly do you mean you "read" about those matches (I.E where and what it read exactly)?

menstennisforum board where there is obviously differing opinions but you can get a general idea of how the match went and sometimes some of the better posters will give good insights. They're so funny over there, and not in a good way.

[Hardcoar]

Unlike me, who is funny in oh so many good ways...

[ohumad]

Down a set and a break
@6.50(5u)
Knapp v Meusburger

[ohumad]

@2.25(10u)(full match)
Hlavackova v Svitolina

[Hardcoar]

You're already on both and I warned you already. Take it easy on burrowing yourself.

I'm starting to think your unit size is one cent...

[Hardcoar]

You could hedge out of Hlavackavack now...

[ohumad]

You're already on both and I warned you already. Take it easy on burrowing yourself.

I'm starting to think your unit size is one cent...

Thanks for your concern. Impulsiveness/retardedness knows no bounds. You would be right to say it is of relative unimportance to me. When I had much larger units in the past it was the same story just with minimized risk/reward.

[ohumad]

@2.10(5u)
Fognini -1.5 sets v Delbonis

@1.80(5u)
Hlavackova +4.5 v Meusburger

@3.92(4u)(1st set req.)
Hlavackova ML

[ohumad]

10* - [201] Alejandro Falla 1.87 vs Ivo Karlovic
@2.10(10u)
Fognini down a break v Delbonis

[ohumad]

Delbonis @12.00 v Fognini down a break final set.

[ohumad]

3* - [142] Andrey Kuznetsov 1.77 vs Sergiy Stakhovsky
3* - [525] Urszula Radwanska 1.80 vs Christina McHale
3* - [213] Dmitry Tursunov 2.25 vs Thiemo De Bakker
3* - [522] Magdalena Rybarikova 3.05 vs Madison Keys
3* - [513] Kiki Bertens 2.45 vs Nicole Gibbs
3* - [530] Daniela Hantuchova 1.77 vs Yanina Wickmayer
3* - [525] Urszula Radwanska 1.80 vs Christina McHale

@2.50(3u)(full match)
Harrison v Matosevic