Rafael Nadal x Del-Potro ( Indian Wells Final )

DoubleRedDragon · 03-17-13, 02:33 PM

I love you guys. Can we all get together more often and talk tennis?

DoubleRedDragon · 03-17-13, 02:37 PM

For me I want action on this game... it's exciting. It's Nadal's return to a final. They're making it easy to put action on Nadal at -200. I put $1 on it last night but I think I might ride some Potro here. I just want a piece of him when he takes down Nadal. The placement of Potro's forehand will run Nadal all around this hard surface and Nadal just may wind up folding. This tournament is more important to the career of Potro than Nadal. I think Potro takes it down... if the line was any less for Nadal the books would be tipping you in the direction of Potro... the line just has Potro winning all over it to me.......

samus82 · 03-17-13, 02:38 PM

An interesting opinion I found on another forum from Stakhovsky about the courts.

samus82 · 03-17-13, 02:41 PM

Originally posted by DoubleRedDragon

I love you guys. Can we all get together more often and talk tennis?

Definitely dude I love debating tennis!

I agree with you DRD about the matchup, but it seems the surface is the biggest factor to consider.

DoubleRedDragon · 03-17-13, 02:44 PM

interesting. yeah i'm laying off still, mostly betting cbb... i'll wait to exploit your researching for a close to game time decision but thinking del potro..

Hardcoar · 03-17-13, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Mostly the exhaustion Po'Mo MUST be suffering at this point (despite how he shocked me in 2:nd and 3:rd last night, outlasting a completely fresh Djokobo), but also his foot blisters as well as the surface favoring Nadal to greater extent than Juan-Martin. Additionally, we mustn't forget neither Po'Mo nor Djokobo played at an amazingly high quality level yesterday – overall. Not to mention the way Nadal looks to be shaping up...

Depending on the Umpire, JMDP could also be looking forward to some serious time violations this evening. Expecting his best buttbudy Ol' Mo' again though...

Originally posted by Hardcoar

I said feel, but I would certainly also claim to think so. I would not claim to know so, however. : )

I think it will only favor Po'Mo's game very slightly in comparison to Nadal's, but much more importantly the Argentinean seems far more affected by the heat and sun than Nadal does, despite their respective nationalities. The probable fatigue also exacerbates the effect, I would think.

We kan haz weather report?

I think that's quite a lot of specifics. If you'd call that making a gut call then sure, I really don't mind. There's great uncertainty about this match and therefore it's a clear no-bet situation. However:

Po'Mo is dangerous, but the question is: Can he really take two straight sets?

Can he really take third?

I doubt the answer to either question is "yes", all things considered.

DoubleRedDragon · 03-17-13, 02:46 PM

Originally posted by samus82

Definitely dude I love debating tennis!

I agree with you DRD about the matchup, but it seems the surface is the biggest factor to consider.

I love debating tennis and I also play tennis every day to keep my competitiveness and fitness... going to go play a few sets in a few hours!! Love to watch tennis then go play and see what kind of new shots creep into my subconscious.

Vamos... should be a great match.

Hardcoar · 03-17-13, 02:46 PM

Finally, I'd like to add that none of the rest considered (lol), it will all come down to Del Potro starting out strong, keeping it up, and being able to spam his forehand basher.

If this doesn't happen he won't stand a chance in hell regardlessly.

Hardcoar · 03-17-13, 02:47 PM

FK me I'd never be able to stand debating this much every match...

DoubleRedDragon · 03-17-13, 02:48 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

I think that's quite a lot of specifics. If you'd call that making a gut call then sure, I really don't mind. There's great uncertainty about this match and therefore it's a clear no-bet situation. However:

Po'Mo is dangerous, but the question is: Can he really take two straight sets?

Can he really take third?

I doubt the answer to either question is "yes", all things considered.

If there was ever a time in Del Potro's career where he'd want to pull out 2 sets it's here and now. He may just pull out all the reserves he has... and Del Potro is such an excellent serve holder he can take it to tie break. I do see him winning a 2nd or a 3rd. Let's not forget they're trained to play 5 sets......

samus82 · 03-17-13, 02:56 PM

Well in my previous post I did actually say that other than the heat and the fatigue you didn't mention anything else specifically. I mean are those really the only reasons you favor Nadal? I thought you were considering the H2H or the surface etc.

Considering he won in 3 sets against Murray and Djoko I do feel he is capable yes. He was 3-0 down in the final set against Djoko and took Murray apart after the first set TB. With those matches in mind I would not really expect his fitness to let him down tonight, maybe it will happen, but that is part of the risk I take with my bet.

Did anyone else see their match in New York? The court was faster there, but if the surface plays close to that speed and bounce, the match-up to me was pretty evident, even though it was an exhibition match

DoubleRedDragon · 03-17-13, 03:03 PM

Let's hope for the best... i'm riding potro. Good Value and should be a great sweat. Don't see him laying down.

samus82 · 03-17-13, 03:07 PM

I might watch the first few points to see how the court is, but if it looks good then a couple of units on DP for me too

Good luck mate!

MasterBet · 03-17-13, 03:22 PM

News: Rafa out from next week Miami open.

So is the only chance for him today to take master on hard no?(then come clay)

Hardcoar · 03-17-13, 03:39 PM

That's old news, isn't it?

MasterBet · 03-17-13, 03:41 PM

no past week he tell thet he gona play

Hardcoar · 03-17-13, 03:45 PM

Whatever may happen (which is more or less anything in my mind), I find it extremely unlikely that Po'Mo loses 1:st and goes on to win the match.

ohumad · 03-17-13, 03:52 PM

I went huge on Nadal but I'm not the best person to tail

. Del Potro has taken money from me twice (live bets). I like to think that the Djoker bet at even odds in the third set was good judgement on my part

. IMO Djoker's loss was his own fault because he didn't play to his usual level. It was a sick comeback though and Delpo's forehands were really something. I didn't have enough confidence in Murray to lay money on him pre-match; he's been knocked out of the tourney in the early stages in previous years and I thought the court was to his disadvantage. So the Djoker defeat was very surprising to me but the Murray loss not so much.

With that said when someone beats the third and first ranked players in a row you gotta be careful betting against him! I don't think fatigue should play a huge role here. Delpo's been here before. Nadal's knees also play into that too. IMO the surface is more advantageous to Nadal, although the slow speed allows Delpo to retrieve and tee up these heavy forehands (crucial in the win yesterday). Nadal is playing a more aggressive style because of his knees though (said this himself-to shorten running distance) so this advantage will be lessened. Delpo's slice backhand, against Nadal, on this surface, is a bad idea.

Just my 2 cents (not an expert)

samus82 · 03-17-13, 03:53 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Whatever may happen (which is more or less anything in my mind), I find it extremely unlikely that Po'Mo loses 1:st and goes on to win the match.

That's true of most tennis matches dude

Hardcoar · 03-17-13, 03:59 PM

Yes, but I mean more than average. : )

Chipping a couple of units on Potro so I can root for him some more, not to mention the unwarranted odds rise on already fair odds.

samus82 · 03-17-13, 04:22 PM

1-0 Nadal, Have put my 2 units on Del Potro.

Sam_Hawkins · 03-17-13, 04:27 PM

oh boy this is gonna be tough. Delpo playing good tho. Nadal staying 2 meters behind the baseline plus the slow courts result in nadal catching nearly all his serves so he doesn't ge as big advantage on serve as he normally does. Nearly every ball is gonna be played.

Sam_Hawkins · 03-17-13, 04:32 PM

dunno why delpo doesnt try to serve+volley, nadal wont be able to handle it 90percent of the time from that far behind the baseline.

samus82 · 03-17-13, 04:38 PM

Well he knows he will have to change it up a lot, but Nadal is an expert at passing shots. Only time he can come to the net is off good first serves or following a big forehand.

Del Potro really just has to avoid getting sucked into the baseline rallies because the favour Nadal way too much. From the first few games you can see the forehand does cause Nadal problems, he just needs to utilise it better.

Sam_Hawkins · 03-17-13, 04:51 PM

love o see that even nadal can get under pressure.

samus82 · 03-17-13, 07:10 PM

What a match! I really though Del Potro had it after breaking in the 2nd. He played really well at times today, but as soon as his level dropped, Nadal was ready to pounce. Nadal was very impressive today, but did show he can be vulnerable. Still will be very interesting this year at the slams if Nadal keeps getting better. Can't wait to see the first match between Nadal and Djokovic (as long as its not at the French Open

)

Sumalia · 03-17-13, 07:15 PM

Had Potro +2.5 games...what a beat.

Michael_Flieger · 03-17-13, 07:34 PM

Originally posted by samus82

What a match! I really though Del Potro had it after breaking in the 2nd. He played really well at times today, but as soon as his level dropped,

my read is the match reversed when nadal finally stopped missing shots he normally makes. i think more matches are lost than won. i say djok lost the match more than delpo won it. delpo's not on nadal's level, or djok's. but he might be on murray's level, or getting real close.

DoubleRedDragon · 03-17-13, 09:37 PM

What a match... lost some money... knew i should have just rode nadal LOL.. that was my first instinct but this match was a TOUGH one.