HUGE, superbet on Murray @2.73. Must play!

[Tennisgambler]

My first post here. I'm a professional gambler, tennis is my specialty. I think these odds on Murray are ridiculous. In my book Murray is a 60-40 favorite, if not more. And I will tell you why you should take advantage of this and go BIG on Murray!

1. Djokovic:s form is a "scam". Yes you read it. He's been tested ONCE in this years AO, by a player who actually though that he could win (Wawrinka). And he should have lost that game. I'm not seeing that indestructible Djokovic that we've seen so often in the past years.

2. Murray is better than ever. He's the new top dog. Yes his game vs Federer went to five sets. But you clearly saw that when Murray decided to boost his game, Federer wasn't just one step behind, but two or even three.

3. Don't think the long match vs Federer will affect Murray. His physique is outstanding.

4. Murray's returns been great this tournament. And I think he will raise his serve-level against Djokovic. These two things will give him the edge.

I see Murray more comfortable on this hard court. I can see him stepping up his game, I can see him raising his mental strength and I can see him proving that he is the new "alpha male".

I think it's really worth it to bet on Murray. The odds are GREAT. And I think many will be surprised later today when Murray has shown everyone that he's starting a "new era". I will bet HUGE in this game, and my experience tells my that it will be worth every single dime. It's not a guarantee, of course, but my feeling has rarely been this good, and this clear. Murray is the play!

[Tmuston Beltics]

Nice first post.

But you know, feelings has nothing to do with the final result. The two men will settle the winner, not us. We can't know whether they are exhausted or not. Only they know.

About the part one: I don't know why people assume that if someone has not played any tough opponents they can't be in a good form. So if Djokovic played all the top players to reach the finals, he'd have a better shot @ winning? I think it's vice versa.

Of course I'm only guessing too, like you. In the end we can't know what's going to happen in the end, but best of luck for you!

[Tennisgambler]

Thanks mate.

I can only speak for myself. And in my professional betting career, all the best bets have been when my gut feeling is extreme. Like in this case. But sadly enough this feeling appears very, very rare. But of course you need to back it up with others things like statistics, form, and so on.

[boondoggle]

Bet your entire lifes savings, earnings, 401k and the 2k you stole off your best friend and put on the Joker! This is the easiest bet in a long time.

[Pinocchio]

The best bet I see is: Murray +14.5 points (Pinnacle, odds slightly below 2:1)

[indio]

Thanks for this post. Every single thread I've read during this tournament declared something with great vitriol and the exact opposite occurred, so I just pounded Djokovic -1/-140. Murray had an outstanding service game the other night against Federer and if he can duplicate that, God bless him, but that's a tall order, and Djokovic will punish his usually vulnerable 2cnd serve a lot worse than Federer did the other night.

No doubt, Murray's playing great, but Djokovic played almost perfect the other night while expending no energy. Granted, Ferrer has few weapons to challenge him, but he was still hitting precision shots that were practically inhuman. Now obviously just because someone plays great doesn't guarantee a repeat performance, but then again, nothing says he can't play like that again either. Don't discount the extra rest, it will play a part when the 3 hour mark hits.

I can't fault your assessment about Murray having a little value, but you're delusional if you think he is ever a 60/40 favorite against a healthy Djokovic. I wouldn't be betting this strictly from an edge standpoint, but what insomniac gambler could ever pass up a major final between 2 greats at 3:30 AM? I know I can't. So since I have to bet somebody, I'm going Djokovic. I think this is his best surface, and I predict he wins handily tonight.

But I respect Murray, and if he gets it done tonight, I'll tip my cap, and you'll be a happy man.

[imzdeals]

Bro when you say "huge" how much are we talking? 5 figures?

[Tennisgambler]

Bro when you say "huge" how much are we talking? 5 figures?

It's relative. "Huge" compared to your bankroll.

But if someone wants to know I've bet over $15.000 on this game. But that's not only on Murray ML, some other bets to. Like game handicap on Andy. But, yeah, it's still a lot of money.

[Emerson]

So Tennisgambler since you claim to be a pro gambler, if you dont mind me asking what is your unit price? Do you even have a unit price? 15000 on one game is alot of money but if you have the money to gamble with i wish you the best of luck.

[Frenchy616]

So what's your guys opinions on Djokovic money line?

[Tennisgambler]

So Tennisgambler since you claim to be a pro gambler, if you dont mind me asking what is your unit price? Do you even have a unit price? 15000 on one game is alot of money but if you have the money to gamble with i wish you the best of luck.

I'm fortunate. And if your strict and consequent with you gambling, it's not a problem.

Sure. Normally, one unit for me is around 150-200 dollar. A big bet is ten units. Then once in a while, these "huge" bets appear and I really go for it. That's my vision, and that's how I played for a long while now. But, note, these huge bets don't come very often.

[Tennisgambler]

Frenchy616
IMO, NO value what so ever. I find the odds on Novak ML to be a joke. He's not that big favorite. But that's only my opinion.

If you want a "safer" bet, than Murray ML. I really recommend Murray game handicap and Murray + 1.5 Set.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

great write up tennisgambler. i hope you continue to post. the tennis thread has good contributers, not gonna say that for the rest of the sports threads on here. im already on a Djok future to win it all, but i agree with you. Murray has more value than i thought he would get here. My book has a unique line for this match that im considering throwing a little on. 6-8 games (+450) 9-10 games (-110) 11 or more (+155) for sets 1-3. Im leaning 9-10 in the first set. What are your thoughts on it?

[snufflyjoe]

do you see this going the 5 sets? my bookie refunds losing bets up to $100 that lose in the 5th

[snufflyjoe]

was thinking on tailing on the murray play so ill only lose if joker wins 3-1 or 3-0 otherwise i get my money back or win

[Boxing Champ]

I'm playing Over 3.5 Sets at (Very Juicy)-230

[GoBlue77]

1. Pro gamblers dont post here
2. 15,000 and reg bets are 200..bs!
3. You and everyone LOVING the moneyline value w Murray will learn a tough lesson tonight.

Joker in 3. Maybe 4 if he feels sorry for Murray

[Pinocchio]

Another bet worth considering in my opinion is Djokovic to lose the first set. He proverbially starts epic matches slow and finishes strong. Has lost the first set vs Murray four times in a row now. So for those betting on Murray to win outright, another option would be: Murray to win first set and match, at 3.5:1 (Bet365).

[El Sol]

Im on murrey as well but certinly not for the same reasons. I have this at an absolute toss up for I really see no tactical advantage either way. All their strengths and weakness's are countered. This is simply a statistical bet for me.

Murrey at +175 (heritage) for the value

[snufflyjoe]

1. Pro gamblers dont post here
2. 15,000 and reg bets are 200..bs!
3. You and everyone LOVING the moneyline value w Murray will learn a tough lesson tonight.

Joker in 3. Maybe 4 if he feels sorry for Murray

well... aren't you a negative nancy

[Dr.Gonzo]

do you see this going the 5 sets? my bookie refunds losing bets up to $100 that lose in the 5th

Last 2 grand slam meetings between these two went 5 sets, so it's a fair chance.

[snufflyjoe]

Last 2 grand slam meetings between these two went 5 sets, so it's a fair chance.

thanks man

[Boxing Champ]

3. You and everyone LOVING the moneyline value w Murray will learn a tough lesson tonight.

Joker in 3. Maybe 4 if he feels sorry for Murray

What makes you so sure??
Are you consistent TENNIS Winner??
That is very bold prediction, that's not back up by a legitimate argument..

[Dr.Gonzo]

1. Pro gamblers dont post here
2. 15,000 and reg bets are 200..bs!
3. You and everyone LOVING the moneyline value w Murray will learn a tough lesson tonight.

Joker in 3. Maybe 4 if he feels sorry for Murray

Actually, if he bets -$ to win 200 and +$ 200 win, a high volume player betting on props as well will turn over an enormous amount. Once you start upping your stake from there to $2000 on specials it's going to be even more. He needs to be a high volume player or it's BS but it's possible, I know of a few pros who go massive on the ML fav in the superbowl ever year. It's a small edge yet they bo big because it's the superbowl.

[Mexes]

I'm with you!!!
MURRAY ALL THE WAY

[suicidekings]

Djokovic:s form is a "scam".

I see Murray more comfortable on this hard court.

Pure comedy...

[Sport_Fish]

Well if ur really making that large of a wager gd luck...I personally think Murray ml is dead money.

I don't know how this match will go but Djoker will prevail at the end, whether its a 3-setter or goes the distance...this guy is not getting beat by Murray tonight.

The 'not been tested' theory is pure b/s....players don't decide what draw they get. I think if your talking about some other players u could possibly make the argument of them going through some tough situations helps prepare them for the big stage...but this is the best player in the world we're talking about here with nerves of steel, he's been through everything and can hold is own under any situation just like he will tonight. Murray's time has come and hes certainly going to be winning more slams but not going to happen this early and ESPECIALLY against Djokovic on B2B slams. No way.

[matt1216]

My first post here. I'm a professional gambler, tennis is my specialty. I think these odds on Murray are ridiculous. In my book Murray is a 60-40 favorite, if not more. And I will tell you why you should take advantage of this and go BIG on Murray!

1. Djokovic:s form is a "scam". Yes you read it. He's been tested ONCE in this years AO, by a player who actually though that he could win (Wawrinka). And he should have lost that game. I'm not seeing that indestructible Djokovic that we've seen so often in the past years.

2. Murray is better than ever. He's the new top dog. Yes his game vs Federer went to five sets. But you clearly saw that when Murray decided to boost his game, Federer wasn't just one step behind, but two or even three.

3. Don't think the long match vs Federer will affect Murray. His physique is outstanding.

4. Murray's returns been great this tournament. And I think he will raise his serve-level against Djokovic. These two things will give him the edge.

I see Murray more comfortable on this hard court. I can see him stepping up his game, I can see him raising his mental strength and I can see him proving that he is the new "alpha male".

I think it's really worth it to bet on Murray. The odds are GREAT. And I think many will be surprised later today when Murray has shown everyone that he's starting a "new era". I will bet HUGE in this game, and my experience tells my that it will be worth every single dime. It's not a guarantee, of course, but my feeling has rarely been this good, and this clear. Murray is the play!

i like this too....... alot of guys think Djoker is unstoppable because he made ferrer look like a chump. I watched ferrer play djoker last aussies open. the score was almost the same. Next match murray faced joker. dJoker was a huge favorite. Murray was up 2-1 sets on Djoker but didnt have the enduance and dropped hard by he 5 hour 5th set mark. Murray is bigger faster and smarter than the Murray who lost here last year.
I cant see how this match isnt 50/50 here. Djoker hasnt been tested at all. Murray had a great tune up match with FED.

[Sharp Snake]

Anyone who is saying either side of this match is a lock doesn't take betting tennis seriously.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Anyone who is saying either side of this match is a lock doesn't take betting tennis seriously.

Even though I'm on Djoker I can understand how you could rationalize Murray as a special given he's +odds.

There's obviously no lock, but if it's really a 50/50 match than Murray is a great bet.

I disagree and think Djoker's gonna role but maybe that's just me.

[imzdeals]

My strategy, take Murray at + money, hope that he wins the first set, get djoker at + money

[matt1216]

Anyone who is saying either side of this match is a lock doesn't take betting tennis seriously.

Love the Idiots saying Joker in 3.......... and this is how Vegas Laughs!

[Dr.Gonzo]

Love the Idiots saying Joker in 3.......... and this is how Vegas Laughs!

If Murray doesn't serve well......... Joker in 3

[GirlCanCapToo]

Sorry to be harsh, but this is just dumb. I do agree with you that Murray might be the better pure tennis player right now, but Djokovic does seem to always be tougher mentally. The value is clearly with Murray in my opinion, but to make a "superbet" on this is ridiculous.

[Sharp Snake]

My strategy, take Murray at + money, hope that he wins the first set, get djoker at + money

Why not just bet Murray to win the first set at around +140 and then you could win both, instead of just flushing it away (based on your scenario)?

Or you can take the "Lose First Set/Win Match" prop at +250 right now?