Be prepared for an entertaining and potential epic matchup tonight when Murray meets the swiss master. Books have hung an opening line at -155 Murray which have been pounded early by the public down to -140 currently. I expect this line to dip a bit lower by match time as the public is leaning heavily towards Federer. I'm predicting about 60% or more of the betting public will be on Fed tonight and rightfully so as the swiss is in terrific form currently.
I'm not taking Murray just to be cool or to be on the opposite end of the public, I truly believe the Scot will hold an advantage over Fed tonight. If we can get a number near -135, I believe there is some value here.
There is no mental edge between these two. Everyone pretty much knows on paper, it's been a back and forth seesaw battle with Murray holding the 10-9 edge but Roger holds the significant edge in slams 3-0. However, I would personally count the gold medal win at the Olympics by Murray significant mentally for the Scot. With that win, Murray had propelled his mental game tremendously and proceeded to win his first slam at the US Open, beating his arch rival Djokovic. Since then, Murray has continued his fine form.
I see a lot of writers mention that Murray hasn't really been challenged this tournament and that could affect him negatively. I differ on that notion. Murray knows now that he has the skills to beat any of the big four on any given day. Conserving his energy and most importantly, conserving that "mental juice" needed to win a big match like today is vital.
Here is where Murray will have the edge over Fed today. I believe the big match between Fed and Tsonga the other night will actually affect Roger PHYSICALLY tonight. Roger had a stellar first serve percentage the whole tournament but as the match grinded on with Tsonga, we saw dips in service percentage that allowed Tsonga to get back into the match. Is this mental or physical for Roger? Was this Tsonga returning better? It wasn't mental because Roger has been here/done that so many times at slams, not much can phase the master..... I think it was a physical dip in energy for Roger.
If it comes down to a physical grind it out type match, Murray holds the edge....a significant edge. Murray would be fine going toe to toe in a five setter versus Roger. However, I don't think Fed will have enough physically to overcome another tough 4 to 5 hour match. Sure, he turned it on when he needed it on that last set versus Tsonga. However, the dimensions of that last set will be totally different with Murray on the other end. Djokovic and Murray are the two best returners in the game, hands down. They are also the two best defenders in the game. Murray won't allow Fed to press him wide or deep as much as he did with Tsonga.
Another edge for Murray is that he has one of the best returns in the game from the ad court. If it comes down to a tight and final set, the ad court becomes a significant side especially for big right handed servers like Federer. The deuce court will always favor righties but the edge might come down to how he serves from the ad court which is normally their weaker side. Murray has one of the best backhand returns in the game thus neutralizing Roger's favorite wide service angles. If it comes down to a final set and Roger has a slight dip in serving, Andy will feast on those second serves.
I like Murray tonight and -138 has some value........best of luck.
I'm not taking Murray just to be cool or to be on the opposite end of the public, I truly believe the Scot will hold an advantage over Fed tonight. If we can get a number near -135, I believe there is some value here.
There is no mental edge between these two. Everyone pretty much knows on paper, it's been a back and forth seesaw battle with Murray holding the 10-9 edge but Roger holds the significant edge in slams 3-0. However, I would personally count the gold medal win at the Olympics by Murray significant mentally for the Scot. With that win, Murray had propelled his mental game tremendously and proceeded to win his first slam at the US Open, beating his arch rival Djokovic. Since then, Murray has continued his fine form.
I see a lot of writers mention that Murray hasn't really been challenged this tournament and that could affect him negatively. I differ on that notion. Murray knows now that he has the skills to beat any of the big four on any given day. Conserving his energy and most importantly, conserving that "mental juice" needed to win a big match like today is vital.
Here is where Murray will have the edge over Fed today. I believe the big match between Fed and Tsonga the other night will actually affect Roger PHYSICALLY tonight. Roger had a stellar first serve percentage the whole tournament but as the match grinded on with Tsonga, we saw dips in service percentage that allowed Tsonga to get back into the match. Is this mental or physical for Roger? Was this Tsonga returning better? It wasn't mental because Roger has been here/done that so many times at slams, not much can phase the master..... I think it was a physical dip in energy for Roger.
If it comes down to a physical grind it out type match, Murray holds the edge....a significant edge. Murray would be fine going toe to toe in a five setter versus Roger. However, I don't think Fed will have enough physically to overcome another tough 4 to 5 hour match. Sure, he turned it on when he needed it on that last set versus Tsonga. However, the dimensions of that last set will be totally different with Murray on the other end. Djokovic and Murray are the two best returners in the game, hands down. They are also the two best defenders in the game. Murray won't allow Fed to press him wide or deep as much as he did with Tsonga.
Another edge for Murray is that he has one of the best returns in the game from the ad court. If it comes down to a tight and final set, the ad court becomes a significant side especially for big right handed servers like Federer. The deuce court will always favor righties but the edge might come down to how he serves from the ad court which is normally their weaker side. Murray has one of the best backhand returns in the game thus neutralizing Roger's favorite wide service angles. If it comes down to a final set and Roger has a slight dip in serving, Andy will feast on those second serves.
I like Murray tonight and -138 has some value........best of luck.
GL!
