Ferrer-Djokovic -- Over/Under 3.5 Sets?

[BlurredOut]

feel free to make this an in-game thread as well.

I've been killing it this tournament picking OVER 3.5 sets (usually around -120) for intense matches -- like Tsonga-Fed and Wawrinka-Joker.

What do you guys think the chances are that the game tonight goes over 3.5 sets? Vegas obviously thinks it's more unlikely than likely with a +105 line.

Joker's great but it's not like he's never lost a set. I don't know too much about Ferrer. Any stats that support either side?

[matt1216]

Djoker in 3. I watched this last year, Ferrer has nothing to offer Djoker. 6-4 6-3 6-2.

[BlurredOut]

yeah, I'm leaning a small bet on the under. you've watched Ferrer a bit, and Vegas agrees with your assessment.

Joker wins 3-0 for -115 looks OK

[suicidekings]

Ferrer doesn't quit, ever. Djokovic will have to be pretty much perfect to take it 3-0, but that's not necessarily out of reach for him. You can get Ferrer +2.5 sets (+102) right now, or Over 32 games (-120) at pinnacle as an alternative.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Totally agree with Suicide.....Novak will need to have a perfect match to straight set tonight. If he has even a slightest lapse in concentration, Ferrer will take a set. Also, Novak could be thinking about his next match with Murray/Fed so a lapse for one set isnt totally outta the question.

If you like the Ferrer +2.5 sets line, might as well take the Over 3.5 sets. Virtually the same bet but at much better odds(+140 vs even money).

Heritage has the best line out there right now if you like the Over 3.5 sets. They have it at +140 currently. Most places I've seen its at near even money. I'm on it for a nickel:


Wager Type : Total
Wager Status : PendingRisk / To Win Amount : 500.00 / 700.00(USD)
Accepted : 1/23/2013 10:48PM - PST


Sport / Period : ATP Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : N. Djokovic/D. Ferrer
Time : 1/24/2013 0:35:01AM - (PST)
Line : Over 3½ +140
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.

[matt1216]

under 33 and 3-0 sets man, dont over think it. Ferrer is a fighter, but theres nothin u can do with super forehands. Joker with the better serve, return game. Last year at this tourney, I thought ferrer had a shot, but Joker blasted him. I feel for Ferrer. If he gets frustrated right away its because he knows. this will probably be no more than 29 28 games

[suicidekings]

Heritage has the best line out there right now if you like the Over 3.5 sets. They have it at +140 currently. I'm on it for a nickel:


Wager Type : Total
Wager Status : PendingRisk / To Win Amount : 500.00 / 700.00(USD)
Accepted : 1/23/2013 10:48PM - PST


Sport / Period : ATP Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : N. Djokovic/D. Ferrer
Time : 1/24/2013 0:35:01AM - (PST)
Line : Over 3½ +140
Game Notes : MATCH WAGERING - A full set must be completed for money line wagers to have action. The spread and total are based on sets and the full match must be completed for action. On first set betting, 1st set must be completed for money line wagers to be valid.

What a steal.

[ttwarrior1]

best shot for ferrer is joker ease up, perhaps win 1st 2, lose 3rd, ?

[BlurredOut]

Joker winning 3-0 jumped from -115 to -130
I just took it. wish I had it sooner.

I feel Ferrer's lack of a great serve will be his quick demise. we'll see. just put 0.5u on it.

[matt1216]

What a steal.

lol, a steal?? comon man. It aint happening

[No coincidences]

What a steal.

Why would Heritage offer +140 on over 3.5 when most books have the over 2.5 at +105 or so? I don't get it.

[matt1216]

Joker winning 3-0 jumped from -115 to -130
I just took it. wish I had it sooner.

I feel Ferrer's lack of a great serve will be his quick demise. we'll see. just put 0.5u on it.

i watched his whole match last year vs joker in this same heat. He was making great shots but joker was even better. He got so mad he just dumped the third set 6-1 i believe

[tevari]

i honestly think djoker takes it in 3. berdych IMO is a more dangerous opponent (his style of play) on this surface to djokovic than ferrer is, and look what happened to him. tough one, but gun to my head i feel the odds are justified.

[matt1216]

Why would Heritage offer +140 on over 3.5 when most books have the over 2.5 at +105 or so? I don't get it.

cuz the book will make more money lol!!!! they know 3-0 Under 33 Joker will want to save energy for his 5 hour final vs Murray

[suicidekings]

lol, a steal?? comon man. It aint happening

At Over 3.5 +140, you could then bet Djokovic 3-0 -107 at Pinny and collect free money on the arb, so yes, I would say that's worthwhile...

[MagicDiceFlow]

Joker winning 3-0 jumped from -115 to -130
I just took it. wish I had it sooner.

I feel Ferrer's lack of a great serve will be his quick demise. we'll see. just put 0.5u on it.

Service game wont come into play tonight and Ferrer never depended on his serves anyway. He has so many other weapons to grind you down. Keep in mind, we're not guessing who wins the match here, only that Ferrer is taking a set. If Ferrer plays like he's had the last 12 months, he will take one set off Djoker.

[MagicDiceFlow]

What a steal.

This is the first time I've seen Heritage offer that Over 3.5 sets all tournament long. When I saw everyone else hanging the same line at +105 , had to take a piece of that. They probably havent gotten much action on it thus it hasnt moved. Also, its because they have it listed under a weird section so not many people see it.

[matt1216]

At Over 3.5 +140, you could then bet Djokovic 3-0 -107 at Pinny and collect free money on the arb, so yes, I would say that's worthwhile...

obviously, your above comment made it seem like +140 in general was a steal. Yu said nothin about 2 books

[suicidekings]

obviously, your above comment made it seem like +140 in general was a steal. Yu said nothin about 2 books

Any off-market line is worth something. Sorry if I wasn't clear. I definitely wish I played at Heritage right now...

[suicidekings]

This is the first time I've seen Heritage offer that Over 3.5 sets all tournament long. When I saw everyone else hanging the same line at +105 , had to take a piece of that. They probably havent gotten much action on it thus it hasnt moved. Also, its because they have it listed under a weird section so not many people see it.

The first day a site starts offering a prop can be amazing if you happen to be there at the time and catch it. What are the limits on the bet?

[MagicDiceFlow]

$500 on spread/games line bets ....$2000 on straight money line.

[shari91]

I put a bit on Ferrer +7.5 purely because I want to see a good match since today's been rather disappointing so far. But I don't hold too much hope that it'll hit to be honest after seeing Ferrer struggle against Muggy. GL with your bets everyone!

[suicidekings]

I guess for anyone that likes Ferrer to win a set, Djoker 3-1 (+256) x0.71 and Djoker 3-2 (+760) x0.29 (Pinnacle) are a pretty solid pairing as well. $100 invested nets about $150 if Ferrer wins 1-2 sets. Best value for the bet, I would say.

I feel like I have to put a little on it now.

[yisman]

Heritage has been offering great lines as long as I've been checking.

Not on the MLs but on the other stuff.

from the quarters:

Sport / Period : ATP Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : J. Tsonga (Games)
Time : 1/23/2013 0:30:01AM - (PST)
Line : +6 -105

Sport / Period : ATP Match Betting Tennis / Game
Selection : J. Tsonga (Games)/R. Federer (Games)
Time : 1/23/2013 0:30:01AM - (PST)
Line : Over 38 -110

[MagicDiceFlow]

I guess for anyone that likes Ferrer to win a set, Djoker 3-1 (+256) x0.71 and Djoker 3-2 (+760) x0.29 (Pinnacle) are a pretty solid pairing as well. $100 invested nets $148 if Ferrer wins 1-2 sets. Best value for the bet, I would say.

I feel like I have to put a little on it now.

Yep thats virtually the same bet.

If you're sharp at interpreting tennis props , there's always value in getting the same bet but at much better numbers.

[suicidekings]

Also playing Fastest Serve by Djokovic Over 204.5 (-131). Just a fun bet for $25. Even if you love it, the limit is $139 CAD, haha.

[BlurredOut]

Joker winning 3-0 jumped from -115 to -130.

this went up to -150 on 5d before it closed. i'll take the -130 and potential hedging opportunities.

a bit worried about the first set with Joker. probably should have put a bit on Ferrer wins 1st set.

[tevari]

What a bloodbath.

[yisman]

Well, Heritage wins this round.

[matt1216]

LOL........... I watched this last year. I tried explaining under 33 and no tie breaker. You have to remember, Joker is plannig for next game!

[matt1216]

Djoker in 3. I watched this last year, Ferrer has nothing to offer Djoker. 6-4 6-3 6-2.

Damn, I wasnt too far off........... Exactly what happened last year.

[MUHerd37]

Just shows you how good Wawrinka played that night.

[Sport_Fish]

I seriously hope Murray beats Federer....all but ready to pound Djoker in the finals and we will def get a much better price if Murray advances.

No way is Murray going to beat Djoker in a Slam final b2b...esp here in Melbourne - he's playing out of his mind.

[matt1216]

this is the problem i tried explaing on why 3-0 sets under 33 was obvious.

Wawrinka totally diffrent style then Joker. Ferrer is MINI JOKER................Djoker just hit returns smashes what ever you want to call it better than Ferrer. This is te Same exact match between each other as it was at Last Aussie Open

[matt1216]

I seriously hope Murray beats Federer....all but ready to pound Djoker in the finals and we will def get a much better price if Murray advances.

No way is Murray going to beat Djoker in a Slam final b2b...esp here in Melbourne - he's playing out of his mind.

Be careful, Like i said matchup problem here. Andy and Joker can expose each other