Ok I got a future ticket on Sloane at 300/1. 100 to win 30k. She's going to be huge underdog against azarenka then sharapova/li. I'm thinking let it ride in semi and hedge if she gets to final. Any advice?
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no idea to hedge the semifinals. just hope she wins. if she makes the finals, hedge as much as you can. you could even hedge with 10k and still profit like hell if she happens to lose. i mean if i was in ur shoes and stephens got to the finals i'd bet all i could to hedge.Comment -
I don't think I can profit that much. Sharapova would be at least -800 right?Comment -
You sir would be one huge fool not to hedge in the semi finals. If you dont walk away with at least 10k from this you're a fool. Sloane is facing Azarenka this round, and you should hedge to win at least a few thousand here.Comment -
So you're saying it's a lock that azarenka will win? How in the world can I walk away with 10k? Azarenka will be at best -400.Comment -
Are you the one who asked about this future before the tournament started? And when I replied there's always a chance, people laughed? If it wasn't you, it was someone... I wish I had remembered that conversation before today
Aza opened at -665 so if you have the bankroll, drop enough on Aza to guarantee you some profit either way. You're actually in a pretty good spot with hedging because whatever you risk won't cut into your potential profit that much. Good luck!!Comment -
I cant imagine Azarenka being anything less than -700....regardless, you're gonna have to be ready to put 10-20k on hedging. I'd say leave 10k pending on ur future and figure out a way to use 20k to hedge.Comment -
yep that was me! The WTA:where anything is possible. The problem is i don't have the bankroll. Lets say I put 3k to win 500 on azarenka (assuming -600). First off that would be 400 profit if azarenka wins. Second, I wouldn't have the bankroll for the final if Sloane wins. Assuming Sharapova will be at -500, I'd have to risk 15k just to break even on the 3k I just lost! I don't have any books with that kind of limit anyways. I don't think there's any choice other than let it ride in the semi.Comment -
If you had enough for 3K, then at least put whatever the line is on Azarenka to win $100 and break even if Sloane loses. You can afford that.Comment -
How is he going to get at least 20k? If he bets on Azararenka, he has to bet loads to make small profit. If he bets like 20k on Azarenka and she wins , he win like 1k(E:like3k?)? But if she loses, he lost 20k. Then he'd have to hedge the final opponent too, and if it's Sharapova, then he'd have to hedge massive amount to make small profit.
I think it's impossible to make two profitable hedges with the small odds bookmakers are offering.Comment -
I'm not bothered about losing the original $100. Sport_fish, I'm not sure what you mean. There is no way I can hedge and still make 20k.Comment -
This. The only real scary part is if one of the players retires before the bet is final.
I'm not saying it's a guarantee that Azarenka wins by any means, but you're going to feel silly when/if she does and you have nothing to show for it. Of course you aren't worried about losing $100, but you should be worried about not winning 5k.Comment -
Still telling you, the best would be to wait for the finals and hope Li wins. If so , you'll make wealth!Comment -
Ok then... we're just going to have to get the whole forum cheering for Sloane vs Aza! That's often the dilemma with longshot futures... you either have to have a lot of cash available to green out or just cross your fingers and hope for the best because they won't be the favourite at this stage in tourneys. It'd be nice if there was a market for people to sell and buy futures from each other. Someone with the cash and the outs available would go to town on your ticket.Comment -
If he bets 20k on Aza and she loses, he'll be @ -20k. He then has a possible 10k profit on the way, but if he doesn't hedge and the opponent wins, he just lost 20k. So he has 10k left, and with that money you'd have to hedge the opponent, and if it's Sharapova, you won't get good odds on her.
So if Stephens made it to the finals and he bet Aza with the 20k, he'd have to get +200 on sharapova to break even. Because that's the only way he could make the lost 20k back if Sharapova wins. And by doing that he could only break even.Comment -
It is tough to hedge and still make money when your selection is still probably 15-1 or 20-1 to win the tournament.
You may want to consider backing Azarenka to win the tournament as a hedge (for say, $1k, and you can probably get it to win about $1.2k), and then consider hedging on the other 2, but with Sharapova playing it will be very short, and probably not worth it. No matter what you do, consider the maths first, and just hope like hell Li beats Sharapova!Comment -
I thought about putting in a future on azarenka to win the tournament. But I might as well bet Li to beat sharapova, because if the final is Azarenka v Sharapova, it wouldn't be worth it. I think I'll stick with my decision to let it ride tomorrow. Hoping for some 04 Wimbledon magic tomorrow night!!Comment -
If he had the cash and outs, what is the best way to hedge this for most guaranteed profit? (serious question)
I'm the same Imz, can't really see any option to hedge pre-final.
I often find myself undecided what to do in situations like this too. And so often have got it wrong..Comment -
Only other option I can think of is if you have a Betfair account, you may be able to directly lay Stephens to win the tournament, but there is no guarantees when you're matching on that market as to whether you'll get all of your bet. And you have to have a fair bit of free cash to do that. So I'd agree with letting it ride, with maybe the only consideration being a small bet to win back the amount of the bet on Azarenka if you choose. GL!Comment -
opti - I'd say laying on Betfair is the best option if you have an account and the cash. If you were able to lay the entire amount (let's say at 20-1, to be conservative) You could lay up to 28k, and guarantee a profit of at least 1k either way. Or you could put a smaller amount if you want to take the risk of her getting through for a much bigger return.Comment -
5-10k on azarenka future 5-10k on sharapova future. Let's say he bets 10k on both. if shara wins he wins 2,24k , if aza wins he wins 2,4k and if Stephens wins he wins 10k.
Of course you'd have to be sure Li won't win the title. Which is highly unlikely.Comment -
i'm afraid betfair is not an option for me
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Tmuston I can't risk that. I've been watching Li and she's been impressive.Comment -
There have been good ideas already, but ultimately it's up to you. I just cant imagine you're going to leave that much money on the table.
For the record, there's no way Stephens beats Serena today, if shes healthy. And I also think Azarenka handled Stephens fairly easily.Comment -
5k on shara future win 11,2 if hit
5k on aza future win 12k if hit
1k on li 13k if hit..
Risking 11k to get @ least free 200 dollar
If you had 11k you should do it. Free ride and might win 19k profit!Comment -
Who did you book it with? Ask them if you can lay off some.Comment -
Absolutely, just like in the stock market. Bookmakers are really just brokers and exchanges that take a helluva large premium for doing it. They very rarely take positions, unlike what most conspiracy theorists on the internet thinks (talking about traps and fixes in every other post), so in theory it would be possible to organize a global betting market for sports events, where you can sell and buy bets, just like in the bonds markets. Their value would always be determined by expected payout, decided by the market.
On topic, you (the OP) can calculate the current value of your wager by having a look at the future odds. Pinnacle pays 18.0 (decimal odds) for Stephens to win the whole enchilada. 1/18 = 0,056 = 5,6 % chance of her winning. In reality her chances are lower since there's decent juice on futures, also on Pinnacle. Given Pinny's future odds, her chances are actually 5,3 %..
That gives your wager a value of 0,053 * 30 000 = 1590.
In a perfect world, you would be able to hedge, so that you get a guaranteed profit of 1590. Unfortunately, the juice will make that impossible.
If you have 1500, spend it on Azarenka, which would give you a net profit of 131. if the unthinkable happens, you just need to find someone with money. A bank, a broker, I'm sure you can sell percentages on sbr etc etc, organize something so that you can bet let's say 25 000 on Sharapova (or even better, Li), which should give you a profit of about 1000 in the end if Sharapova wins, and a few k's if Stephens wins.
But really, it's understandable that the risk of gathering the money is too big.
You could also hedge directly in the futures market, but that wouldn't end in a very high payout in any case. If you dare to take the chance that Li doesn't take it, you'll get a net profit of 200 given Pinny odds, betting 1500 on both Aza/Pova..
Theoretically, the value of the wager has gone up A LOT, but it's still a very tough spot unless one has a ton of money floating around.
(Been lurking on the tennis forum for a while, but an interesting case, so decided to answer)Comment -
Judging from this thread, the op doesnt have access to alot of cash,books, or agents outside the US, in a less than 24 hour time frame. Most US facing books have pretty miserable limits on futures, getting 11,000 down on various futures at this point in tennis from most US facing sports would be pretty tough from one book or even a few US facing books, also considering the fact that account where he already has the original futures wager would most likely need months and months to transfer him the 30,000 payout and hopefully is a reputable sportsbook.
Tennis is crap for futures and wagering any large amounts in general from US facing books. I hate to say it it, unless this future is from a reputable book, I wouldn't sweat the wager, I would be sweating the payout. I would just ride it out and pray for the miracles, Stephens wins and you actually get paid within a 6 month to one year time frame.Comment -
No worries.
There are some other parts involved with that too - like taking into account the commission that Betfair takes, and the costs of getting funds into Betfair (like CC charges that are about 1.5% or something like that), but you could still add that in and make 1k I'd imagine (haven't calculated it, but just looks that way at a glance), as well as considering if the whole bet can be laid.
I'm not familiar with US betting law, why can't US bettors use Betfair? I'm from Aus, and one benefit is we can gamble with quite a few companies (as far as I'm aware), with the major negative being that live betting is prohibited completely online, making hedging in-play more difficult for faster-paced sports.Comment -
Lets not forget if someone bails out because of injury. If you're risking a significant amount of money like 20k to win a small amount and the a player retires and you get nil, you'll be pissed...
Here's another thing I'm wondering. Whomever you placed this bet with, I'm assuming a local guy, are you sure he's good for it? When he takes a bet like this, there's no way he's anticipating it cashing and probably doesn't have 30k in liquid cash on hand. You should make contact and just make sure everything is copacetic should you win.Comment
